KQo flop decision

[bernie]

Go for the c/r.

However, a case could be made to bet out hoping the UTG will raise. Your c/r may also have the same effect. Besides, you have a great drawing hand.

b

[Derek in NYC]

Check.

You are on a str8 draw to the non-nuts (i.e., flush threat) out of position. If you were on the button, you could be aggressive, but with your non-nut draw you cannot risk being taken on a multi-bet ride.

The K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] adds substantial value to your hand, although even here it is not a nut draw, and a 1-card second nut flush draw is not something you can play aggressively out of position.

The only caveat I have to this is that if a scarecard [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls and freezes the action, a semibluff raise of a late position bettor can be highly effective.

[admiralfluff]

I would think a check raise here would be bad. If LAG 3 bets it, cold callers will only fold hands that you don't want to fold. Do you agree with what I and others said earlier, that it is probably useless to try and free up your overcard outs, because any hand that has you dominated will probably not fold this flop? Also, with the possible flush draw out there, pumping may not be the best idea. Where do you see the check raise having an advantage over the check call to turn check raise should you improve? Thanks in advance if you reply to my lowly member questions.

[Nick C]

As a disclaimer, I'll say that I don't know the 15/30 at all. But given the numbers provided, I do think we could be up against a very wide range of hands here. Even when under the gun, a player who raises preflop 17 percent of the time will probably do so with a lot of hands. Also, a postflop aggression factor of 1.6 isn't really that high, so while I expect UTG to bet the flop, I'm not going to assume he will.

If the other players are paying any attention, then they should know UTG is raising light, and thus they might cold-call lighter than usual too.

I don't know exactly how significant any of this is, even if correct, but I thought I'd bring it up. If nothing else, it could mean that not as many of our outs are in other people's hands as we might fear.

Anyway, my first instinct was to lead the flop, but then I had trouble thinking of many hands that will fold and create additional outs for my king and queen. I started favoring the checkraise plan next, but btspider's and The Dude's arguments that the 3-bet potential (from UTG) is a drawback to this plan swayed me, and now I think check-calling is probably the way to go.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I would think a check raise here would be bad. If LAG 3 bets it, cold callers will only fold hands that you don't want to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with getting it HU with a LAG given your hand?

[ QUOTE ]
because any hand that has you dominated will probably not fold this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Like what? AK or AQ? Any hand that dominates you you don't really mind if they call given your draw. If they don't have a flush card with it, which is unlikely given your hand, they may very well fold. That may be giving them a little too much credit for thinking though. Many would just call anyway hoping to hit one of their overcards, drawing to 2 outs, btw. Then they'd likely fold the turn after missing. It isn't too bad if they hit their Ace, is it?

[ QUOTE ]
Where do you see the check raise having an advantage over the check call to turn check raise should you improve?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the check/call, c/r the turn also. However, if others also see this player as LAG, they may be likely to call his 3 bet after putting a bet in already thinking he's just being his LAGGY self. Some LAGs will slow down when c/r'd. C/r is a strong move that many don't do with draws. Depends on the table, really. One read could sway me one way or the other.

b

[Trix]

Check, is this close ?

I dont think you can clean outs or anything here. I´ll check-raise if he bets and both of the others call, else check-call.

[Lmn55d]

Actually I didn't see there were two unknowns to act behind PFR. If both call I would checkraise for value, if one called I would check call.

[Poker Chief]

For those who said check raise for value, how much equity do you think you really have in this pot? It is very likely that a couple of your Ace outs are gone, and there is a flush draw on board.

What if every goes as planned and you trap the two cold callers, what do you do when the turn bricks?

I don't think you can win this hand without a showdown, and I don't think you have a huge pot equity, so do you want to c/r?

[KidPokerX]

those aren't small stakes to me.

[Lmn55d]

nm