Micro Limits: Cashout Curse. Does it exist

[Redd]

Who else has noticed that anytime anyone posts a question like this on any forum, it gets like 30 replies?

EDIT: I swear that this being the 30th reply was completely coincedental. Mmm, that's good irony!

[Kenrick]

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However, many swear this stuff actually happens. I have built a rather sizeable BR and would like to know others' experiences from cashing out.

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My experience is that people are stupid. Luck/variance happens. Even 500bb downswings happen despite what your favorite poker authors may have you believe. Downswings from cashing out do not happen and are the subject of things I refrain myself from commenting on too highly in order to avoid people flaming me because they understand math even less than I do.

[Goon2]

Since we are this conspiracy topic, and because it doesn't deserve a new thread, let me give you the newest conspiracy. This one is coming from a best friend and not from a LA-P on PP. Both theories, I think, are garbage.

My buddy plays NL tournaments on UB. He's been mildly successful (I think this is because he has good poker sense despite his refusal to learn the numbers). He plays the 5+.50 and 10+1 games. He thinks UB is designed to speed up HU play such that when one player holds a 3:1 chip advantage, it gives the short stack a superb starting hand inducing the short stack to push all in, and gives the chip leader a hand that he's happy to call with for only 1/3 of his chips. The flop then of course hits the hand that was "trailing" pre flop, the tournament ends and the table is no longer tied up by players playing tight HU.

For example, my friend was HU with 2,500 chips against the leader with 7,500 chips. Friend is dealt AKo and pushes all in. Leader calls with JTo, out comes a J on the flop with no A or K to follow. End of tournament.

My friend says everyone in his office who plays has experienced the same thing.

Just typing it, the whole theory seems like a pile.

[Slick Al]

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Just typing it, the whole theory seems like a pile.

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There's hope for you yet [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Tell your friend to play around on twodimes w/ AK vs JT if he honestly believes that this is some rare bad beat consipracy. Also have him play around w/ Ax vs YZ hands, where both Y and Z are > x in rank. From my friends that know little about math, they'll tell you AKo should beat JTo 9 out of 10 times, or more, and A7 should beat K8 8 out of 10.

Al

[BruinEric]

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Since we are this conspiracy topic, and because it doesn't deserve a new thread, let me give you the newest conspiracy.

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I actually appreciate you adding that theory to this thread. Let's assume that your friend and his office mates have decent educations and have friends (you) willing to speak some common sense to them. And even still, nutty theories abound. It says a lot about how we humans think.

I'm in the wrong business. Unless I can come up with my own miracle diet pill to take advantage of (ummm...I mean "leverage") the way people think, I absolutely MUST join the casino/gambling/poker business and find a way to leverage these theories for profit.

I have a great background in high-tech marketing (but in an industry with too high a percentage of rational thinkers). Anyone out there in the gambling industry who wants to let me find a way to harness the "luck/fortune" inclinations of people out there, let me know.

How about dealer icon changes? Table background changes? A button for "lucky table" that dumps the player into a random new table with the next 9 players to hit the "lucky table" button. How about "bad beat" tokens that can be traded for merchandise such as a "Party Poker Rabbit's Foot" or a lucky Ace of Hearts monitor talisman?

Ohhh...yesss. I have a full time job, but I will do this part time! Taking PM's today!

Let me mention that hiring me is instant good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Goon2]

Actually these guys are all college educated and very good at what they do. They play alot of poker.

But none of them understands pot odds. They don't feel like they need to because they're playing NL (I know, that's stupid). They don't understand implied odds. They play based on feel.

They don't know much about poker, but they know enough and are learning on a very slow curve.

They know even less about computers and on line sites. They're the perfect target market for your services.

[Kenrick]

Your friend is dumb, and you can tell him I said so. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mackthefork]

I'm probably the only one who read all this, but this is just funny.

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First, a curse at this lower limit would discourage a player from moving up, where you're more likely to maintain a higher BR

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Second, if I think I'm getting "cursed", I am less likely to play a site or refer a friend there, which decreases the overall rake

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Finally, if I thought the site was rigged, I wouldn't be playing there in the first place.


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Hahahaha stop it.

PS Even a cursed Party table is easier than a Stars table [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Regards Mack

[Tom Spec]

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Let's assume a 2BB/100 true win rate, which I'd say is conservative at this limit.

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I don't think this is a fair assumption for someone who choses to believe "cashout curses" instead of "maybe I'm not as good as I think I am."

[jskills]

Would that mean there is also a "Deposit Blessing?"