Common BB situation....HELP!

[DeeJ]

If I have no info then an EP raiser has me calling. But it's close.
If I know he's reasonable/tight it's a muck. If I know he's loose it's a call. If I know he's soooper loose and there's nobody else in it's a raise.

With another player in, it's a call every time. Now can I conjure PT to tell me if I'm smart? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[adamstewart]

Okay,

SCENARIO #1:

Possible raising hands for a typical 'tight' EP raiser include:

* AA-TT (6 possibilities for each of the 5 hands = 30)
* AK (16 possibilites)
* AQ(16 possibilities)
For a total of 62 possible holdings for Villain.

With the "jack-high, blank,blank" board originally described, our Hero beats:

* TT (6 possibilities)
* AK (16)
* AQ (16)
For a total of 38 possibilites in which we are ahead.

Therefore, in this scenario there is a 38/62 (61%) chance our villain is ahead right now.


SCENARIO #2:

Possible raising hands for a typical EP raiser include:

* AA-TT (6 possibilities for each of the 5 hands = 30)
* AK (16 possibilites)
* AQ(16 possibilities)
* AJ (16)
* KQ (16)
For a total of 94 possible holdings for Villain.

With the "jack-high, blank,blank" board originally described, our Hero beats:

* TT (6 possibilities)
* AK (16)
* AQ (16)
* KQ (16)
For a total of 54 possibilites in which we are ahead.

Therefore, in this scenario there is a 54/94 (57%) chance our villain is ahead right now.


SENARIO #3:

Possible raising hands for a typical EP raiser include:

* AA-99 (6 possibilities for each of the 6 hands = 36)
* AK (16 possibilites)
* AQ(16 possibilities)
* AJ (16)
* AT (16)
* KQ (16)
For a total of 116 possible holdings for Villain.

With the "jack-high, blank,blank" board originally described, our Hero beats:

* TT-99 (12 possibilities)
* AK (16)
* AQ (16)
* AT (16)
* KQ (16)
For a total of 76 possibilites in which we are ahead.

Therefore, in this scenario there is a 76/116 (65%) chance our villain is ahead right now.


THE AVERAGE OF SCENARIO'S #1, #2, AND #3 (61%,57%,65%) EQUALS 61%. (I just approximated "60%" in my earlier posts).


Keep in mind, this assumes a "jack, blank, blank" board that does not help the villain either. Most of the time, I doubt we will be that lucky.

Furthermore, the villain is in a WORSE scenario if the board is "queen,blank,blank" because less of his hands are going to be ahead. Actually, my calculations estimate that the villain is BEHIND about 55% of the time with the queen-high board.


Make sense?


Adam

[poboys]

#'s make sense to me... however (and I think that this is the main point of your original "Fold, Seriously" reply) the Probability of you being ahead is so damn small pre-flop that it just doesn't make sense.

The Pr(J-high flop)= c(40,2)*3/c(50,3) = ~12%. So, if you don't trust the Q, then the probability of you being ahead pre-flop is 0.12*0.6 = ~1%. (Of course, I should add the probability of JJx or JJJ flop, or maybe JQx flop).

[adamstewart]

Okay, so let's say we agree that 60% of the time on a "jack,blank,blank" board we're ahead. And let's even be generous and say 47% of the time we're ahead on a "queen,blank,blank" board.

My rudimentary calculations say that you're only going to get such a board only a FRACTION of the time. Let's say we want a flop that has a Jack and/or a Queen, but NO Aces or Kings:

Odds of such a flop = (odds of J/Q) x (non-A/K) x (non-A/K)
= (6/50) x (42/49) x (41/48)
= only ~ 9% of the time!


Therefore, preflop we're only getting 3.5:1 money to call the raise, but we're only going to hit a favourable flop 10:1. (AND FURTHER, EVEN WHEN WE HIT SUCH A FLOP, WE'RE GOING TO BE BEHIND 40%-53% of the time!)


Compound this with the fact that vilain has position on us, and can easily fold when we show strength and he is behind.... we've got ourselves a definite -EV play by calling preflop.

Disclaimer: I've really simplified the possibilites, but overall, the odds of flopping a flush, trips, two-pair, boat, etc, are negligable in such a non-borderline decision.


Adam

[maurile]

[ QUOTE ]
SCENARIO #1:

Possible raising hands for a typical 'tight' EP raiser include:

* AA-TT (6 possibilities for each of the 5 hands = 30)
* AK (16 possibilites)
* AQ(16 possibilities)
For a total of 62 possible holdings for Villain.

With the "jack-high, blank,blank" board originally described, our Hero beats:

* TT (6 possibilities)
* AK (16)
* AQ (16)
For a total of 38 possibilites in which we are ahead.

Therefore, in this scenario there is a 38/62 (61%) chance our villain is ahead right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good start. The next step is to take into account not just whether we're ahead or behind, but also by how much. (If we're way behind when we're behind, but only slightly ahead when we're ahead, that changes things.)

What you'll find (using PokerStove) is this:

Preflop against AA-TT, AK-AQ, we are a 2.2-1 dog. This makes it an easy fold in a live game with a big rake, but an okay call in an online game getting around 3.5-1.

On a flop of Jc 7d 2s, we become a 2-1 favorite over AA-TT, AK-AQ. (If we add AJ to the raiser's range of hands, we are about a 1.6-1 favorite on this flop.)

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SCENARIO #1:

Possible raising hands for a typical 'tight' EP raiser include:

* AA-TT (6 possibilities for each of the 5 hands = 30)
* AK (16 possibilites)
* AQ(16 possibilities)
For a total of 62 possible holdings for Villain.

With the "jack-high, blank,blank" board originally described, our Hero beats:

* TT (6 possibilities)
* AK (16)
* AQ (16)
For a total of 38 possibilites in which we are ahead.

Therefore, in this scenario there is a 38/62 (61%) chance our villain is ahead right now.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good start. The next step is to take into account not just whether we're ahead or behind, but also by how much. (If we're way behind when we're behind, but only slightly ahead when we're ahead, that changes things.)

What you'll find (using PokerStove) is this:

Preflop against AA-TT, AK-AQ, we are a 2.2-1 dog. This makes it an easy fold in a live game with a big rake, but an okay call in an online game getting around 3.5-1.

On a flop of Jc 7d 2s, we become a 2-1 favorite over AA-TT, AK-AQ. (If we add AJ to the raiser's range of hands, we are about a 1.6-1 favorite on this flop.)

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't get the calculation where u say we're a 2:1 favourite on the jack-high board, given the *range* Villain's likely holdings. I think you're 2:1 calculation assumes only the cases in which we are ahead.

As I noted above, you're only *ahead* 61% of the time, still susceptible to redraws. (I suppose 61% approximately equals 2:1... but again, 2:1 is a little higher, plus you're susceptible to redraws....)

*BUT*, The 39% of the time we're behind, we're huge dogs.


Please elbourate...


Adam

[me454555]

Assuming a pf fold is out of the question, I check call the flop and bet the turn.

Any decent pfr will bet the flop regardless of his holding whether its just overs or an overpair. Most pfrs will raise a bet on the flop out of the bb almost regardless of the hand. They would do it w/overcards or an overpair. Theres no good way to figure out where you are on the flop so check calling is a good play.

On the turn, a bet will help you tell where you are. An overpair will raise and overcards will call or fold

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming a pf fold is out of the question, I check call the flop and bet the turn.

Any decent pfr will bet the flop regardless of his holding whether its just overs or an overpair. Most pfrs will raise a bet on the flop out of the bb almost regardless of the hand. They would do it w/overcards or an overpair. Theres no good way to figure out where you are on the flop so check calling is a good play.

On the turn, a bet will help you tell where you are. An overpair will raise and overcards will call or fold

[/ QUOTE ]

That's perfect.


Adam

[LuckyRounder]

Hi all. Thanks for the posts.

How would your stategy change if the raise is an open raise from middle position. I assume you all call the raise as there is a chance here that you are even in front, or have the raiser dominated with QJs over JTs.
So, having called, what a your plans for the rest of the hand? I like check-calling on the flop, and leading out on the turn. But I also like the idea of check-raising, and betting the turn if he he/she just calls the flop bet. A drawback with this though is that you may get re-raised on the flop by a hand that you beat.

Thanks,

LuckyRounder.

[StraitRazor]

With QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I'd bet the flop expecting to three bet it. Heads up you have a good hand. The preflop raiser could have TT or AK whereby raising that flop would be correct. Make sure you don't give him a free card.

With 99... um... you should have raised preflop, but if you didn't. I can't blame you for checking and calling or check/raising that flop.