A rivered set and some weird river play.

[Entity]

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Sometimes I will notice people that always check/call after raising preflop. This almost always happens in a live game (where I pay closer attention to PFR's then coldcallers). Your read is interesting but your play doesn't seem to follow it. If the passive guy will check/call the flop and check/raise the turn with a set I would just bet the turn. If he check/raises me, I was drawing dead anyway. I don't really feel like giving him a free card (your thought process on the flop).

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Shill,

If it were just HU, I would have bet the turn. The thing about hand protection here is that I'm facing two players who generally take odds into consideration postflop, but are weak in terms of value betting their hands. It's rare that neither of them will have pairs on this board, since that limits PassiveMonkey to AJ and ATs, and All-inMonkey to JT and AJ.

Rob

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Okay. If you are planning on folding to a river bet UI (I hope that this is the case), then I can dig the turn check. If you are planning on calling a river bet, then I really don't like the turn check.

Brad

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If All-inMonkey bet a river blank (non-A, non-J) and PassiveMonkey folded, I would have called. If All-inMonkey checks and PassiveMonkey bets, I insta-fold. If everyone checks to me, I check behind.

Rob

[DeathDonkey]

I play the same except I 3 bet the river the first time around. He has AJ.

-DeathDonkey

[btspider]

PF: i think the cc and 3-bet are pretty close. if this player is "fold-prone" weak, i'd be more inclined to 3-bet to scare him a little. if he's "calldown" weak, then you might need to catch a favorable flop before pushing him around.

Flop: yick. odd read, but a bet may help you fold JJ/AQ/AJ type hands.

turn: once he calls, JJ seems unlikely, AQ may be resigned to its fate but still be calling down (on second read, you said he'd calldown). folding AJ here would be nice, but it might not happen. the rest will be check-raising. obviously the other caller increases the likelihood of needing to showdown, so the check seems good.

river: i read the read on 'allinmonkey' and i really don't know where the expectation of the 3-bet comes from, especially since he won't be all-in. 35% - 40% of his hands includes crap like Kxs which could bet this river, but won't 3-bet it. it seems like you are relying on KT/QT/AJ to 3-bet here.. which is likely, but I think his range when he bets the river is wider than that. if he was a true all-in monkey and you were quite sure he'd 3-bet, then yeah, the river call-cap plays itself. you extract more out of passivemonkey's AA/AK/AJ this way. i'd probably 3-bet figuring AJ from either player may cap anyway. i don't think either player is folding... tho:

hmmm... thinking a bit more on the river, if I am including Kxs in allin's range, he may fold this to a 3-bet. you may or may not be ahead of Mr. Passive. he could play AA/AK/AJ/KK/QQ this way (favorable range tho). if you would be capped by KK/QQ only (i can't decide if passive caps AJ with the paired board.. tho you did not raise PF) and allin folds Kxs.. is it more EV to 3-bet compared to cc'ing and capping/calling a cap. damn math.. my gut probably says go for the overcall if he has Kxs and hope for a 3-bet from two pair/AJ without the cap from passive.

am i emphasizing Kxs too much? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

conclusion: close PF. passive, but calling weak, leans towards the CC. flop bet, sure. turn check, yep, river action, its probably close both ways, i'd like a better feel for his "all-in-ness" though, so I can defer to your judgement and presence at the table.

i just typed way too much i think.. too much adding of thoughts, not enough editing..

[Entity]

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PF: i think the cc and 3-bet are pretty close. if this player is "fold-prone" weak, i'd be more inclined to 3-bet to scare him a little. if he's "calldown" weak, then you might need to catch a favorable flop before pushing him around.

Flop: yick. odd read, but a bet may help you fold JJ/AQ/AJ type hands.

turn: once he calls, JJ seems unlikely, AQ may be resigned to its fate but still be calling down (on second read, you said he'd calldown). folding AJ here would be nice, but it might not happen. the rest will be check-raising. obviously the other caller increases the likelihood of needing to showdown, so the check seems good.

river: i read the read on 'allinmonkey' and i really don't know where the expectation of the 3-bet comes from, especially since he won't be all-in. 35% - 40% of his hands includes crap like Kxs which could bet this river, but won't 3-bet it. it seems like you are relying on KT/QT/AJ to 3-bet here.. which is likely, but I think his range when he bets the river is wider than that. if he was a true all-in monkey and you were quite sure he'd 3-bet, then yeah, the river call-cap plays itself. you extract more out of passivemonkey's AA/AK/AJ this way. i'd probably 3-bet figuring AJ from either player may cap anyway. i don't think either player is folding... tho:

hmmm... thinking a bit more on the river, if I am including Kxs in allin's range, he may fold this to a 3-bet. you may or may not be ahead of Mr. Passive. he could play AA/AK/AJ/KK/QQ this way (favorable range tho). if you would be capped by KK/QQ only (i can't decide if passive caps AJ with the paired board.. tho you did not raise PF) and allin folds Kxs.. is it more EV to 3-bet compared to cc'ing and capping/calling a cap. damn math.. my gut probably says go for the overcall if he has Kxs and hope for a 3-bet from two pair/AJ without the cap from passive.

am i emphasizing Kxs too much? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

conclusion: close PF. passive, but calling weak, leans towards the CC. flop bet, sure. turn check, yep, river action, its probably close both ways, i'd like a better feel for his "all-in-ness" though, so I can defer to your judgement and presence at the table.

i just typed way too much i think.. too much adding of thoughts, not enough editing..

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Spider,

I think you're correct in that neither player is folding here very often. So the real question for me is what hands PassiveMonkey will play this way, and if the range is great enough that I should simply 3-bet. Then the further question is that will PassiveMonkey call two cold when/if All-inMonkey caps my 3-bet?

I couldn't do all the math in my head, so I worked out this line on the fly, which worked out well. I suspect it's probably razor-thin close between calling and 3-betting, more likely a 3-bet if neither player will ever fold, and a call if there is a chance they'll fold. It was hard to say, despite the fact that AIMonkey was almost all-in, whether or not he would fold for two cold here.

Turns out PassiveMonkey got all freaky with AQo, and AllInMonkey had AJ.

Rob

[btspider]

i need practice.. don't trust my math. i'll ignore passive's unpassive like AQ river raise and just go with my thoughts pre-results:

passive range:
AA - 6
AK - 12
AJ - 16
KK - 3
QQ - 3
caps about 35% of all 3-bets (roughly half of the time with AJ)

allin range:
KT - 3
QT - 3
AJ - 16
Kxs - X

you have this guy crushed pretty much.. so let's just say:
3-bets your smooth-call: 70% (KT/QT/AJ)
calls your smooth-call: 30% (Kxs)

caps your 3-bet: 50% (AJ only... so about 16/22 of 70%)
calls your 3-bet: 30% (KT/QT + 1/3 chance with Kxs)
folds to your 3-bet: 20% (2/3 chance with Kxs)

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if you smooth-call:
30%
called = 6 bets (you win 34/40)
ev: 5.1 -> 1.5

25%
capped (by passive) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 25/40)
ev: 7.5 -> 1.9

45%
capped (by you) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 12 -> 5.4

EV: 8.8
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if you 3-bet:
50%
capped (by allin) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 34/40 times)
ev: 10.2 -> 5.1

10%
capped (by passive) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 25/40 times)
ev: 7.5 -> .75

20%
3-bets 3 ways = 9 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 9 -> 1.8

13%
3-bet 2 ways = 7 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 7 -> .9

7%
capped 2 ways = 9 bets (you win 25/40 times)
ev: 5.6 -> .4

weighted EV: 8.95

conclusions: 8.8 by smooth calling and 8.95 by 3-betting with those assumption (made before any calculations!). pretyt damn close.. so are my assumptions and math correct?

[btspider]

can't edit it.. i definitely messed up.. 25/40 is flat out wrong.. i'll try again here:

passive range:
AA - 6
AK - 12
AJ - 16
KK - 3
QQ - 3
caps about 35% of all 3-bets (roughly half of the time with AJ)

allin range:
KT - 3
QT - 3
AJ - 16
Kxs - X

you have this guy crushed pretty much.. so let's just say:
3-bets your smooth-call: 70% (KT/QT/AJ)
calls your smooth-call: 30% (Kxs)

caps your 3-bet: 50% (AJ only... so about 16/22 of 70%)
calls your 3-bet: 30% (KT/QT + 1/3 chance with Kxs)
folds to your 3-bet: 20% (2/3 chance with Kxs)

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if you smooth-call:
30%
called = 6 bets (you win 34/40)
ev: 5.1 -> 1.5

25%
capped (by passive) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 8/14)
ev: 6.9 -> 1.7

45%
capped (by you) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 12 -> 5.4

EV: 8.6 (not 8.8)
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if you 3-bet:
50%
capped (by allin) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 34/40 times)
ev: 10.2 -> 5.1

10%
capped (by passive) 3 ways = 12 bets (you win 8/14 times)
ev: 6.8 -> .7

20%
3-bets 3 ways = 9 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 9 -> 1.8

13%
3-bet 2 ways = 7 bets (you win 100%)
ev: 7 -> .9

7%
capped 2 ways = 9 bets (you win 8/14 times)
ev: 5.1 -> .35

weighted EV: 8.85 (not 8.95)

so 8.6 vs 8.85.. still similar.. fortunately 25/40 is close to 8/14. 8/14 is your chance of beating 1/2 AJ's + KK + QQ.

[Entity]

This is good math. I'm going to read it in a little bit over some coffee and see what assumptions I agree with / disagree with, but I suspect it's pretty damned close here.

The real question, though, is what hands AllInMonkey (I now regret the name, as that may have generated more assumptions about worse play than I originally cared to get across) will fold to my 3-bet that he decided to bet on the river. The turn check confusion will probably induce bets with Qx and hands like JT that definitely won't call a 3-bet here very often.

The other question would be how often PassiveMonkey will call my 3-bet with a hand like AQ when the AllinMonkey folds, and I suspect the answer to that is pretty close to 100% of the time.

Either way, I thought this was an interesting river play for people to check out, but it didn't generate as much discussion as I thought it would.

Rob

[toss]

The ever wonder whether trying to understand an average PP player would be somewhat akin to trying to understand modern art or the song of a bird?

[FreakDaddy]

What is the best way of figuring out the EV of your hand versus the board?

[bergh]

I don't see why you bet the flop. Are you looking for free cards for drawing to your tainted set or do you think the bet will buy the pot?

The river might be worth a crying cap (it will probably be capped anyway so it doesn't matter very much how you play it).