A rivered set and some weird river play.

Entity · #1 01-27-2005, 04:21 PM

Villain #1 (Passive) is loose-passive preflop, and weak-passive postflop. Doesn't like making value bets of things like middle pair and such, but does seem to only call draws with appropriate odds. He's not terrible postflop, but is weak in general. This is my observation through a few orbits, so obviously take it with a grain of salt.

Villain #2 seems to have ok starting hand standards (not great standards, probably upper 35-40% of hands here), and is almost all-in. Villain #2 also has decent postflop standards, but seems a bit weak as well. Neither of them would fold something like QJ or AQ here, but they wouldn't bet it either.

Another observation that comes into play here, I think, is that villain #1 is the type of player who, if they flopped a set, would rarely bet this flop. They will often check-call the flop and checkraise the turn. This was a consideration of mine for river play.

So let's hear it. I think there's room for debate on every street.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG (All-InMonkey) calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 (PassiveMonkey) raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG (All-InMonkey) calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
All-InMonkey checks, PassiveMonkey checks, CO checks, Hero bets, All-InMonkey calls, PassiveMonkey calls, CO folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
All-InMonkey checks, PassiveMonkey checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
All-InMonkey bets, PassiveMonkey raises, Hero calls, All-InMonkey 3-bets, PassiveMonkey calls, Hero caps, All-InMonkey calls, PassiveMonkey calls.

Final Pot: 18.25 BB

DMBFan23 · #2 01-27-2005, 04:33 PM

I'm most curious about PF I think. I did read somewhere in SS (probably from StellarWind) that a CC of a tight players PFR was ok with TT, but I think that with the coldcaller plus the dummy plus the button, a three bet here would be good. I'm open to discussion on that though, what was your thought process?

flop bet good when checked to, if for nothing else than to clear out as many singleton hearts as we can in case we turn the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I assume you were folding if tight pfr bet?

turn. ya, free card goot. I guess the debate is this versus bet/fold turn, take a free showdown?

river: was the cold call attempting to get all in monkey to 3 bet so you could trap, or was it in fear of passive monkey? I think, from the way the action went down (he raises to two, but then just calls monkey's three bet) that AJs/AJo is more likely for passive monkey than KK or QQ. I say cap that shizz.

LowDown22 · #3 01-27-2005, 04:37 PM

Preflop I don't usually 3-bet TT with 3 or 4 callers already in. So I play it the same.

Flop same.

Ok, so the reason you didn't bet the turn was because you anticipated a raise, right?. And you're behind anything that connected with this board. Without reads I'd be inclined to bet here and fold to any raise, and plan on checking the river through.

I would have just went ahead and 3-bet this river.

Entity · #4 01-27-2005, 05:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm most curious about PF I think. I did read somewhere in SS (probably from StellarWind) that a CC of a tight players PFR was ok with TT, but I think that with the coldcaller plus the dummy plus the button, a three bet here would be good. I'm open to discussion on that though, what was your thought process?

flop bet good when checked to, if for nothing else than to clear out as many singleton hearts as we can in case we turn the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I assume you were folding if tight pfr bet?

turn. ya, free card goot. I guess the debate is this versus bet/fold turn, take a free showdown?

river: was the cold call attempting to get all in monkey to 3 bet so you could trap, or was it in fear of passive monkey? I think, from the way the action went down (he raises to two, but then just calls monkey's three bet) that AJs/AJo is more likely for passive monkey than KK or QQ. I say cap that shizz.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the thinking on my river play (in white, for those who want to guess what I was thinking first):


All-InMonkey may just be taking a shot at this with something like AT, or possibly JT. After everyone gave up on the turn and he missed his gutshot, he paired up and thought there was a chance his hand was best. He's not a great player by any stretch, but he'd bet QT here and would probably bet any pair on the river after the turn action. There's also a possibility that he has a hand like QT/AJ, which he will go multiple bets with on this river.

PassiveMonkey, on the other hand, is going to have KK or QQ a reasonable portion of the time when he raises the river. He'll also have AJ, or have outplayed himself with AA/JJ, and try to make it up because he sees someone taking a shot at it. Again, the turn action is really what changes the way he would play this river; had I bet the turn, I only can see him raising hands that beat me here, I think. But when the turn gets checked through, everyone all of a sudden thinks their hand is good, and gets more aggressive on the river.

Once it's two bets to me, I think my hand is good here about 60% of the time. Maybe slightly more, but probably not 70% of the time -- regardless, it's close to a 3-bet. So I decide to overcall, because if I 3-bet, All-InMonkey is folding everything except AJ and maybe QT, and I'll only get capped by PassiveMonkey with QQ, KK, and maybe AJ, so I'm aiming for a "lose less when behind, win the same when ahead" type of overcall.

Once All-InMonkey 3-bets and Passive calls, though, I am now close to 100% sure my hand is good, and there is no fear of a 5-bet, so my river cap only has to be with the best hand 33% of the time for value.



Anyway, I thought it was an interesting hand, definitely with room for guessing on all streets. I could've 3-bet preflop, but with this PFR, I thought there was more value in checking out the situation postflop. I would have folded to a flop bet, as you guys guessed, but when it was checked to me the possibility of being up against AJ struck me, and possibly ATs. However, when both players called I thought it was unlikely I was up against AJ twice (or AT and JT/etc.), so I didn't feel like hand protection was warranted at this point on the turn. I think this is also a close decision, as I was basically giving up on the hand in decent sized pot, which is dangerously close to an error. And then the river play, which was really strange for me, since I'm used to just raise/raise/raising when I have a boat. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

DMBFan23 · #5 01-27-2005, 05:46 PM

you calling two if it goes 3bet-cap by the other two players?

Entity · #6 01-27-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you calling two if it goes 3bet-cap by the other two players?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, but I wouldn't be liking it. Getting 8:1 I don't think I could fold unless I knew these guys to be superpassive, because I'd see AA from PassiveMonkey occasionally and AJ from All-InMonkey, or AJ from PassiveMonkey and QT from All-InMonkey...

Rob

Shillx · #7 01-27-2005, 05:49 PM

Sometimes I will notice people that always check/call after raising preflop. This almost always happens in a live game (where I pay closer attention to PFR's then coldcallers). Your read is interesting but your play doesn't seem to follow it. If the passive guy will check/call the flop and check/raise the turn with a set I would just bet the turn. If he check/raises me, I was drawing dead anyway. I don't really feel like giving him a free card (your thought process on the flop).

I like the river thought process. All-in guy will probably just re-raise all-in given the pot size and the fact that he is so short stacked. If you re-raise the river, he will just call all-in (this is correct is it not?) and then the river will only get capped if you are behind (only the passive guy will be able to cap and if he does you are toast). By just calling the river, you can get the river capped when you are ahead and behind. Sweet.

Interesting to say the least.

Brad

Entity · #8 01-27-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I will notice people that always check/call after raising preflop. This almost always happens in a live game (where I pay closer attention to PFR's then coldcallers). Your read is interesting but your play doesn't seem to follow it. If the passive guy will check/call the flop and check/raise the turn with a set I would just bet the turn. If he check/raises me, I was drawing dead anyway. I don't really feel like giving him a free card (your thought process on the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

Shill,

If it were just HU, I would have bet the turn. The thing about hand protection here is that I'm facing two players who generally take odds into consideration postflop, but are weak in terms of value betting their hands. It's rare that neither of them will have pairs on this board, since that limits PassiveMonkey to AJ and ATs, and All-inMonkey to JT and AJ.

Checking the turn was really a concession to giving up the pot here, as I really felt like I was behind -- if not twice, at least once. I haven't yet done a bayesian analysis on the range of hands and what I'll be seeing how often, but it seems that post-flop, betting the turn is probably -EV overall against the potential range of hands I'll be seeing.

Rob

Shillx · #9 01-27-2005, 05:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I will notice people that always check/call after raising preflop. This almost always happens in a live game (where I pay closer attention to PFR's then coldcallers). Your read is interesting but your play doesn't seem to follow it. If the passive guy will check/call the flop and check/raise the turn with a set I would just bet the turn. If he check/raises me, I was drawing dead anyway. I don't really feel like giving him a free card (your thought process on the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

Shill,

If it were just HU, I would have bet the turn. The thing about hand protection here is that I'm facing two players who generally take odds into consideration postflop, but are weak in terms of value betting their hands. It's rare that neither of them will have pairs on this board, since that limits PassiveMonkey to AJ and ATs, and All-inMonkey to JT and AJ.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. If you are planning on folding to a river bet UI (I hope that this is the case), then I can dig the turn check. If you are planning on calling a river bet, then I really don't like the turn check.

Brad

Entity · #10 01-27-2005, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I will notice people that always check/call after raising preflop. This almost always happens in a live game (where I pay closer attention to PFR's then coldcallers). Your read is interesting but your play doesn't seem to follow it. If the passive guy will check/call the flop and check/raise the turn with a set I would just bet the turn. If he check/raises me, I was drawing dead anyway. I don't really feel like giving him a free card (your thought process on the flop).

I like the river thought process. All-in guy will probably just re-raise all-in given the pot size and the fact that he is so short stacked. If you re-raise the river, he will just call all-in (this is correct is it not?) and then the river will only get capped if you are behind (only the passive guy will be able to cap and if he does you are toast). By just calling the river, you can get the river capped when you are ahead and behind. Sweet.

Interesting to say the least.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]
All-InMonkey would not have been able to get himself all-in on this river, for the record. If I 3-bet and he capped, he'd have 1BB left.

Rob