Pretty Interesting Hand IMO

[Schneids]

I've debated this and I'm going to stick my neck out and say that there is no point in betting the river. Given the pot size and that button is a thinking TAG there's no way he's folding a red overpair for 1BB on the river after calling the turn. I also think that when button didn't raise the bet on the turn it is less likely he has a red overpair and more likely he has an overpair with a club.

I think you're winning a little (read miniscule amount more) by checking and calling and hoping he bluff bets 77 or an AK w/o club that for whatever reason decided to take another off on the turn (pot size and perhaps possible bluff equity on river since you say button is a thinking TAG). I also think that it is possible button will call with hands such as red TT but check behind if you check.

I really think the only way you can bet the river is if you're prepared to 3-bet it as I think a thinking TAG is capable of throwing in a raise here with a hand that beats yours while intending to fold if 3bet.

Basically, I think betting the river has more merit when against a mediocre player who is trying to play well. I think any good thinking player calls or raises you with any hand they've got here and you lose.

I think the flop and turn were played very well.

[bicyclekick]

I think schneids thoughts are very good.

[Schneids]

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I also think that when button didn't raise the bet on the turn it is less likely he has a red overpair and more likely he has an overpair with a club.


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That should also include high cards with a club in the more likely category, just in case it wasn't obvious.


To reiterate, I believe you have ZERO bluff equity on the river unless you're willing to 3-bet a raise. That's costly though. So I check/call hoping to once in a blue moon catch a 77 or AKo no club and MAYBE even consider check/fold (which I actually believe with a strong amount of certainty has the highest EV of all choices).

[gonores]

Re: The river

I like Schneids' thoughts on the subject. TAGs don't lay down better hands to this bet. However, I really think a river c/r would work a good amount of the time. Perhaps it would need to be set up by a different flop/turn line, but I still think it works given the line taken here.

[TMac]

Is it possible the button has A8s?

Or do you not really consider that as it's not very likely, based on the odds of him getting that starting hand.

[MCS]

I still don't see why TAG won't lay down a red pair enough for us to make a profit. Do good players really expect bluffs on four-suited boards enough to call down in big pots? I guess he could put you on the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something...I dunno. I'm a mediocre player who tries to play well, but I like to believe I have some understanding of small probabilities.

Good post Schneids.

[Schneids]

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I still don't see why TAG won't lay down a red pair enough for us to make a profit. Do good players really expect bluffs on four-suited boards enough to call down in big pots?

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Hero's PF play says he has exactly a pocket pair TT/JJ or lower, or a v. large suited ace, or AKo (maybe AQo).

Hero's flop play makes it unlikely he has a flush.

Hero's turn play confirms he will almost always hold a pocket pair in this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I guess he could put you on the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something...I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero plays well, we assume, and that button knows this since button is said to be a solid thinking TAG. I don't think hero would play a lone ace of clubs like this on the flop or turn, and better yet, I don't think that hero would hold any hands outside of AKo that can contain just the lone ace of clubs. There is no reason for hero to bet the turn with just an ace of clubs after there were multiple callers on the flop. If hero was looking to make a move with just the ace of clubs he'd have checked and then checkraised if it got around to button who I presume will bet (or again check called if the betting pattern was different on the turn and there was a new better).

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I'm a mediocre player who tries to play well, but I like to believe I have some understanding of small probabilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the time if the button calls with say red KK or red TT here button is expecting to lose. I agree. But the pot is so large and it's just that the way hero played the hand, I think if button thinks about it it's very very unlikely hero flopped a flush, again it's almost impossible hero has the lone ace of clubs since a turn bet out into everyone with just the ace of clubs is an awful play IMO, and then it simply becomes 50-50 hero has a pocket pair that has a club.


Also I think Gonores' river checkraise idea is better than a bet out. I don't know if I prefer it to check-calling or check-folding though.

[me454555]

PF: I'm inclined to toss it pf, playing oop against a lag and a tag is bad news. Even though button is a tough thinking tag, he is still most likely 3 betting 2 overscards to my 99s. On top of that he has position on me and I can think of better times to fight w/a tag for a pot.

Flop: I like the flop play here. C/ring is good but I think the pot is too big for it to really have much of desired effect

Turn: I might consider checkraising here but given the likelyhood of villan checking behind, I like betting out.

River: Only way to play it.

[Nate tha' Great]

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I think schneids thoughts are very good.

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Yes, they are. Since when did "thinking" become a euphamism for "capable of making a bad fold"? This is a trivially easy call at Party Poker.