Party Fears Two

[fyodor]

I guess you are talking about the flop play specifically when you want to get into this steal thing. Whether it is more profitable to just call his raise than 3 bet it and risk losing him if you suspect he has nothing.

Well if you wait for the turn, and he leads in to you and you pop him then, if he has exactly nothing he will likely now fold, and you have gained 1 small bet if he would have folded to the flop 3 bet.

There is a scenario (as in the actual hand) though where he wouldn't have folded to the flop 3 bet because of embarrasment or whatever, and also will now check call because he has at least some hope of a hand and feels the pot is too large but with the exact same holding would fold if you had not 3 bet but now pop the turn because that comes across as so much stronger. In that scenario you have left a small bet on the table.

Factor in that you only have 1 pair and would rather win the hand than have him hang around and suck out on you and I have no problem 3 betting with this hand when he check raises the flop.

[MAxx]

EDIT, OK- IGNORE MY POST. SOUNDS LIKE AS FYDOR POINTS OUT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT FLOP PLAY.


so it now sounds more like opponent is capable of trying to steal on the river?

then the question is only between bet/call a raise, or check it down. i still like value betting much better, and now you must call a raise... as he will try to bluff you off the pot often enough to make folding incorrect.

[bergh]

The flop check-raise could be any pair (and probably not an ace). I would just call the raise and try to put in a raise on the turn instead and then bet the river against most players.

[rickr]

I'm going to throw out something else here. What about something like Axs where x is small, making a straight possible. He goes for the steal raise on the flop, doesn't work, and chases, hitting his ace low kicker on the river. A lot of players will complete with any ace from any position, much less SB, and I've seen weak players go all in in NL in this same situation, so I think he could raise it up here. I don't believe he has the jack here because if he had a weak kicker he wouldn't have raised, and if it was JQ or better I think he would have kept the pressure on. Do you really believe he puts you on an overpair on the flop?
I would check/call expecting to be sucked out on by A2 or something like that.

Later,
Rick

[fyodor]

rickr - For reasons already stated I think it's more likely he doesn't have an ace. HU most players in the SB will open raise with an Ace. He didn't. If he does have one and he thinks it's good he also might lead the river being afraid you are afraid of the ace and he won't get a bet in much less a check raise. He didn't.

If every time some kind of a card comes on the river that might beat you and you are HU and you don't bet, you are leaving too many bets behind.

The river is a value bet plain, clear and simple. End of story.

[naphand]

Both yourself and Rickr are now getting on track with my thoughts for this hand. There are a lot of steal situations on the PR 5-handed tables, many hands being HU or 3-way, bluffing is rife, but re-stealing is not common. Against some aggro players, they will not fold when you 3-bet and play exactly as panned out in this hand, check-folding the River.

This flop was such an obvious one to try a steal on, I was wondering whether to call and CR the Turn or just go ahead and hurt him for trying to steal. Do I want to discourage steal attempts, or let them try? I think if people are stealing a lot, it makes playing with 2nd-pair or less quite difficult.

If opponent has a J here, he would CR the flop or Turn almost certainly (with TP) for the same reasons posters give for me to call and CR the Turn. This is the standard play on this site for more aggressive players. He won't put me on an overpair until after the flop 3-bet, or he will put me on a big A and catching his steal.

I do feel I have NOT got a grip on these games yet, there is so much bluffing and mucking around going on. At the moment I seem to be getting the worst of it, and wonder if I am mis-placing my aggression. The flop smooth-call and Turn CR is very popular as a suggestion, but so is the idea he has a J. I did not put him on a J, and I can tell you now, he does not have a J.

Fyodor and Rickr are the closest to penetrating the psychology of these tables, I am talking specifically about the few players you see that think a little about what they do, such as opponent here. That said, I am glad so many contributed and my own thinking has become somewhat muddled, I am rarely "lost", but too frequently I seem to get it wrong (opponents fold when I have a strong hand, or put in raises against me when stealing or with mediocre-average holdings). I do not want to fold more, but that often seems to be the least damaging policy. Obviously I do not fold here.

This had is a lot easier to play through than many, obviously. But I do need to start building a better strategy for playing spots here where stealing is so common, both in terms of my own steals and when to push my better hands, when to counter aggression. I think Guy has had trouble with this at $5/$10 and it is an area I still feel weak/uncontrolled in.

I will post the hand in full when I get back from Devon on Saturday, further comment would be appreciated, particularly along the lines Fyodor and Rickr have started.

[naphand]

He was really quite passive PF, as are many players on PR who are quite tight. He raises about 5% (small hand sample, I know, but he certainly behaved much the same as a lot of the tight/passive PF and more aggro post-flop players I see in PR), which is pretty much premium holdings.

[MAxx]

re: villain flop steal attempt.

on a non threatning flop like this. i would default to waiting till turn to hurt him with the raise. as Danenania pointed out, flop 3bets maybe better against some opponents.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

if it was JQ or better I think he would have kept the pressure on.


[/ QUOTE ]

The one thing that never ceases to amaze me is how readily people can be put on the back foot in these games. AJ is likely to keep it up, but KJ and QJ will often back right down.

If this guy has been paying attention, and if naphand has been running at all well, he'll have seen our hero showing down some pretty decent holdings for his betting, so slowing down with K- or Q-J is very possible.

Guy.

[naphand]

Man, it seems everything I do is riddled with mistakes.

[ QUOTE ]
If opponent has a J here, he would CR the flop or Turn almost certainly

[/ QUOTE ]

Read as: he would bet/3-bet the flop or CR the Turn against an aggressive player, and certainly with AJ (figuring I am now reverse dominated). A cap against a 3-bet would be rare without the nuts or a known LAG. Most players will stab at the pot with any pair, into a PF raisor, with TP a player like this is either pushing the flop or CR the Turn. But my read was fairly light, so its good to have others' take on this too.

6.45AM but I have not been up all night... [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]