Party Fears Two

naphand · #1 01-12-2005, 01:21 PM

What wrong's the wrong that's always the right?

TABLE CONDITIONS: We only need to consider 1 player here, I have not played him before but I read to be Tight Passive pre-flop (he plays the right number of hands, but is way too passive) and reasonable post-flop. In short, better than average but nothing to be twitchin over. He is capable of stealing, and capable of calling when beat.

PokerRoom $2/$4 Hold'em (4 handed) (CONVERTER NOT WORKING)

Preflop: Naphand is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, Naphand raises, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Naphand bets, SB raises, Naphand 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Naphand bets, SB calls.

River (7 BB): A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Naphand ??

The question is, and I know it is very general, what do you put this player on? and what do you do on the River?

Further discussion of the hand mechanics once I reveal his cards, but come on you aspiring 3 BB/100 players! Grasp the nettle and take a stab. There will be two camps, clearly, so please justify your position (but just a vote is good enough to get things started). IMO the hand details are worth some discussion, from a correct/incorrect point of view and quite useful when considering our own play in similar spots.

Oh, and let's not forget the credits. Post title and opening line courtesy of Billy MacKenzie, Sulk 1984.

David BB · #2 01-12-2005, 01:29 PM

I bet. There's no reason to think the ace helped him.

krishanleong · #3 01-12-2005, 01:30 PM

I think the preflop limp could be many many things. Too many for me to quantify. The flop check raise limits his hands to a draw or a pair. I prefer to think of a pair. It's certainly more likely than a gutshot or openender and there are no flush draws out. He calls the turn blank and the river comes an A. The A completes the openender and puts an overcard to our KK.

I think it is very unlikely that he has an A. Many Aces will raise preflop headsup. I think it's unlikely that he has the openender. Even if it was suited I don't think it's +EV to complete in the SB. I think the majority of the time he will have a pair.

I bet the river based on my read of him having a pair.

Krishan

MAxx · #4 01-12-2005, 01:32 PM

i put him on a reputable J (good kicker).

i would enjoy value betting this river as he will only raise me with a better hand and will call with worse

fnord_too · #5 01-12-2005, 01:49 PM

I bet and fold if raised. I think you will see hands like JQ, JK, TJ, etc. here a lot. Most players with AJ would bet out here fearing that you would check behind them. Heck, if he is as passive pre flop as you say, he may have QQ here (even hands like TT or 99 are possible). I think you are usually good here, and can fold with confidence to a raise.

sqvirrel · #6 01-12-2005, 01:52 PM

To me this is an easy river bet until I learn that Villain is capable of checkraising the river. Not many players will, especially when they hit with a scare card.

Furthermore the likelihood that he has an A is somewhat diminished by is flop checkraise. If you assume that he hit something he likes on the flop, some kind of Jx, then that is one less hole card that could be an A.

That said with you 3-betting his checkraise on the flop another checkraise attempt here wouldn't shock me because of the strength that you've shown.

Analyst · #7 01-12-2005, 01:56 PM

It really comes down to just how passive he is (would he just complete with an ace?), and just how willing he is to call when beat (would he call with jacks?).

It looks like, based on the flop check-raise, that he has some type of decent J, perhaps QJ, JT or J9s. When you say "way too passive", I still assume that even he'd raise AJ or KJ preflop in this instance.

Under normal circumstances, I'd check behind based on the "they won't fold anything that beats me, and won't call with anything I beat" maxim. In this case, though, you said the last part doesn't hold, so he might with jacks - but he might also have limped with an ace (don't understand the flop check-raise, then). Bah - I think I'd bet this one, but am not 100% happy about it.

imitation · #8 01-12-2005, 01:56 PM

I'd bet and call a raise, i'm never 90% confident of my read, are you guys really??

fyodor · #9 01-12-2005, 02:02 PM

For me this is a clear and simple value bet. Sometimes he will have an Ace. Most of the time someone has an Ace in the SB they raise preflop HU. With AA, AJ, A5 or A3 if he limped he likely waits for the turn to raise. So if he had an Ace and limped preflop it likely isn't one of those Aces.

There are all kinds of other hands he could have limped with. Add it up and most of the time he will not have an Ace.

Even if you call a check raise on the river and lose every time, I believe you will still come out ahead in the long run because of the number of times he will simply check call with a worse hand.

krishanleong · #10 01-12-2005, 02:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you call a check raise on the river and lose every time, I believe you will still come out ahead in the long run because of the number of times he will simply check call with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really genius. I could never fold to a river raise. Not at 5/10 PP. I don't know the games at PokerRoom to judge if this is correct.

Normally if you can't call a check-raise, it's better to check behind. But this idea says you can bet, call a check-raise and still come out ahead better than if you checked behind even if you lose every time you are check-raised. Because the frequency of hands that beat yours is significantly less than the frequency of hands he will call with. I like it.

Krishan