Playing bottom set

[Leaky Eye]

I was under the impression outplaying someone meant not paying them off, as well as bluffing down pots when he is weak.

Btw, I don't play all sets this way. Against this, or any other player.

[etizzle]

nm

[Leaky Eye]

He could have AK, which is why I called. There is no chance he checked that flop to me with AQ. He could have 99 and be taking a stab at the pot too, but his bluffs usually have more bite. This player is not going bust with AK here, that is for certain.

I put him on precisely QQ (I was wrong), but his hands are QQ 1010, AK, or snow (including underpairs). I would expect more bet from AK on this turn. I would expect more bet from snow on this turn, which has to frigthen a hand that isn't good.

The more I have thought about this hand the more I believe I can't raise. My focus is on the conditions that would cause this player to take this line. Now I realize that the reader cannot glean much from my saying "this player". But lets assume that both he bluffs and protects aggresively. This makes me discount a post oak bluff for the most part. So I narrow it down to a bigger made hand, QQ, 1010, or KJ(doubtful as he would have bet that draw), or improving with an A. I believe that he will not go broke with an A alone here (talking about the turn and beyond, if I had bet the flop I would have put alot of chips in this pot). So under these conditions I am folding to a reraise. This player is capable of bluff reraising, though I don't think that is going to occur under these circumstances.

So if we say that he has a better made hand 66% of the time and an A 34% of the time how do I need to play? What if those numbers change?

I posted this hand because it has been very interesting to me in hindsight. I have been thinking about lines without cards alot lately (Tommy inspired perhaps). Thinking about the conditions that need to exist to play a certain line, or to cause my oppenent to play one.

[bugstud]

I don't think calling PF should happen if this is what happens postflop

[Leaky Eye]

If what happens? Your comment isn't very helpful. Do you mean I should have gone broke, or folded?

[ITWASSOOOOTED]

just a thought, what about min raise on turn and checking behind on river, assuming the river is checked to you? if you are prepared to fold on the river if re raised, I am assuming u will do the same on the turn. btw what were the results?

[Leaky Eye]

I do hate the minraise, but this might work here. It could cost me more if my opponent identifies my hand and does something like call and lead. But I think he would have played back on the turn. I honestly hadn't considered that, as I just never minraise. Thanks.

Villian had 1010. I called and lost.

After thinking a bit. Don't I have to value bet if flat called and checked to? Even though I suspect an overset?

[sillyarms]

You had a set! Get money in the pot on the flop. Get more in on the turn. Mabye start to suspect your behind by the river.

silly

[creedofhubris]

Well, if you have a strong read on him and know that he will only check the flop to you if he has a monster (strong is weak), and will bet any other flop, then your play is fine. But if he checks other flops, then I think it's excessively paranoid, and you're losing value on the 90% of the time when your set is good.

If he check-raises you, or min-raises you, or goes all-in, then you can get away. But playing a set passively is just the wrong way to go about it.

[Leaky Eye]

How am I losing value when my set is good given the hand distribution? There is me letting him catch a miracle set when he has something like 99, or there is him folding when I play strong.