Coinflips in SNGs

[Vetstadium]

I usually make it to final 5 6 and then sometimes just luck since I am a thief and want them blinds. I am around 20% ROI too which I would like to improve but fine by me. As long as I am making money, maybe they should close this site to newcomers so no one else can learn how to play.

[Marcotte]

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But in most of these sngs, you're just going to have to win some 50-50s and 60-40s. Hey, the alternative is getting blinded out.

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Maybe I'm taking this a little out of context, but I don't think a good (by 2+2 standards) player should have to win coin flips in most of his or her tournaments. Surely they will face some, but it seems to me if you have to win more than one coin flip in most of your tournaments in order to get ITM, your numbers aren't going to be that good.

My theory is that the good/great players use a strategy such that they avoid as many coin flips as possible. Can anyone support this with real world data?

[alexbrew]

If you hit a low limit table on PP with 5 rocks that play decently, you're going to have the fate of the cards cruelly determine your outcome some of the time.

I was in a game yestday where 4 of us made it to 500/1000 blinds. It was ridiculously stupid. If you couldn't steal the blinds at least once each button pass you were pretty much done.

[Mr_J]

Yep I'm constantly facing 8-9 players into level 4. Then a few usually drop like flies and blinds are 200/400 by the time I get to the bubble.

[Bigwig]

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but I don't think a good player should have to win coin flips in most of his or her tournaments....Surely they will face some

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This is a bit contradictory. Do you see why?

[/sklansky]

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My theory is that the good/great players use a strategy such that they avoid as many coin flips as possible.

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Of course. But this isn't ESP. You put opponents on a range of hands, such as AA-77, AKs-ATs, AK-AJ, KQ-KJs, KQ. If you hold QQ, you have about 63% equity here, and that's pretty good, certainly worth a reraise all-in in many tourney situations. But sometimes, when you get called by AKs, and guess what, that's a coinflip.

The idea isn't to never have coinflips, it's to minimize them. But there are certain situations where a coinflip is welcome, such as when you're extremely short stacked and not yet to the bubble, or when you're a big stack and you're getting odds on an all-in from a shorty who's only putting 20% of your chips at risk.

[Mr_J]

I'm in the same spot right now, just moved up to $50s and am 12/15 OTM right now. 60% of those have been busted on the bubble, and just 20% ITM. The "coinflips" (usually better than that) just haven't been going my way. I don't think you can really do anything about it, but just keep playing and hope that longterm results reflect your probabilities.

[Mr_J]

I should point out that I'm actually even though I'm 13/17 OTM.

[Greg Zabawa]

You simply cannot avoid situations on the bubble where you may only be a 60-65% favorite. For example, today I had AKs twice with 4 people left, got all my chips in with 1 caller and got sucked out on by A3 and QJ. The blinds move so fast that these situations are unavoidable a lot of the time unless you double up early and can avoid, which will happen 1 in 5 times if you're lucky. It is usually how I fare us these 60-40 matchups that determines my success for the session. If I'm actually winning 60% of these, then I usually have a decent session, but it honestly feels like, at times, that having AK vs Ax is a coinflip b/c you see dominated hands suck out so often.

[Phoenix1010]

"Jackals..." Hah, I find it funny that people have started using Hellmuth's animal player profiles.

I'd say it's pretty accurate to say that winning play includes consistently getting into the top 5 or 6 players and making your moves there. Someone (Raptor, I believe) said recently that you don't win the game in the early levels, you only lose it. It's also true that avoiding coinflips is usually a good idea at any stage of the game, but sometimes they are unavoidable. You seem to understand that coinflips and 60/40's are necessary when it gets short handed and the blinds go up, so I won't discuss why the value of small advantage/even money all-ins goes up later in the game.

Yes, you must accept that these coinflips are a part of the game. What is most important though, is how they come about. There are going to be times when you can be almost certain that the best you can expect is a coinflip. Here's the key: If you're mostly CALLING all-in when you know the best case scenario is 50/50, you're making losing plays. If you're mostly PUSHING when you know the best case scenario is 50/50, you're making winning plays. Push with deuces more than you call with deuces. When the hands are equal the player doing the pushing has the best chance of winning.

The good players with high ROI/ITM don't necessarily have some method of avoiding getting into coinflips when they're shortstacked with high blinds; it's sometimes impossible to avoid if you find yourself in that situation. When you're on the verge of blinding out, you can't wait until you have a large advantage to make a move. What you can do, and what the best players do, is give yourself the best chance of winning.

Use your fold equity as much you can while you have it, and remember that aggressive all-ins are far more powerful than passive all-ins. Take advantage of all those mice and elephants whenever you can. Hope your next streak is a good one. Good luck on your next coinflip.

Regards,
Steve

[Mr_J]

"It is usually how I fare us these 60-40 matchups that determines my success for the session"

The bubble coinflips are the key. As long as we are getting in as the favourite most of the time, we'll place more than we bust. When we do place, we'll probally place well.

I've found so far that I usually either bust out on the bubble, or come 1st (twice as many 1sts as seconds). Small sample but I think the idea to go for first is good. 20% ITM and 60% bubble up at the $50s. Even if these were only coinflips (50/50), I would be 40% ITM on average and profiting nicely. Unfortunately I've been unlucky but am still about even.