Coinflips in SNGs

[ericlambi]

Last week I took a very bad swing in SNGs, losing a ton near the bubble when I went all-in to try and steal blinds, was called, and my 60/40-ish advantage wouldn't hold up. I took a few days off, and played 5 SNGs at lower stakes than normal last night -- 4 out of 5 I was busted when I put my money in with the small advantage, one of those times I was already in the money. I realize that statistically, this is not a highly unlikely event, which is really why I have a problem with it. So here is my question:

Do the players here with good ROI/ITM somehow avoid these situations? I'm talking PP with low chips and very quickly escalating blinds.

What I've noticed is that people learn quickly that crazy play is not likely to get them good results in these tournaments. You always have a couple jackals or guys that are involved in every hand, but it seems every table I sign up for has between 5-8 rocks. In this situation, I am either not building my chipstack early to avoid coinflips, am not making proper decisions related to stealing blinds, or I just need to somehow accept that these coinflips are necessary (and maybe someday I'll win 4 of 5). By contrast in ring games on PP, the players are much more wild and it is easier to avoid these coinflip situations.

Perhaps I can frame the question another way:

Does the ROI of SNGs come from ones ability to reliably get into the top 5-6 and then make calculated risks at getting in the money?

Thanks,

Eric

[bigredlemon]

there seems to be a lot of rocks on PP these days. Most SNGs seems to still have 8 people left by level 4. It used to be heads up by then!

[1C5]

What $$ level are you guys talking about here?

[ericlambi]

$20-$100, but mostly 30/50. It is rare that in the first 4-5 rounds we lose more than 1 player per round, even at the $20+2. Once the blinds get in the 100+ range, things go more quickly.

Do other people not have the same experience here?

[Mr_J]

Yep I'm constantly facing 8-9 players into level 4. Then a few usually drop like flies and blinds are 200/400 by the time I get to the bubble.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the ROI of SNGs come from ones ability to reliably get into the top 5-6 and then make calculated risks at getting in the money?

Thanks,

Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, they are far better players on this board than I (about 20-25% ROI at $30's), but here goes:

Yes, most of winning SNG play comes from just surviving the first 3-4 levels, and getting the tourney down to 5-6 players. I would say that a majority of the time I get in the money, I'm still around my starting chip stack when the blinds get to significant levels (50/100). I play at stars, btw, so I'm talking about a stack in the range of 1000-2000.

Here's what I look for in coinflip odds:

Early in an SNG, I don't want to be all-in for all of my stack without a signifcant edge (like 70/30). That means KK or AA.

Further into one, I'll take 60/40. When the stacks are getting somewhat shallow (avg less than 30BB), I'll take 55/45. Short stacked, I want calls from JJ with my AQ. Etc.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Short stacked, I want calls from JJ with my AQ. Etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean this in reverse, or do you actually mean that you're looking to go in as an underdog to gamble?

Honestly, if I push all-in as a short stack with JJ, I'd rather that AQ fold. I welcome the call from 99 or A8, however.

-DB

[raptor517]

when short stacked, he is looking to double up, so a coinflip situation is acceptable, though not ideal.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
when short stacked, he is looking to double up, so a coinflip situation is acceptable, though not ideal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Obviously, getting a dominating (7:3, 4:1) chance is ideal, but you're simply too low on chips to wait.

[Bigwig]

I'm talking about when I'm extremely short stacked, say 600 chips with 50/100 blinds, and the avg. stack is 2700 5 handed. At this point a call from outside the blinds gives you 11:9 on your money when with AQ and you're only an 11:9 dog against JJ. At this point, you don't have enough orbits left to expect to see a better starting all-in hand than AQ, and therefore you absolutely want a call.