PP 15/30: Trying to protect Aces in a family capped pot.

[Jezebel]

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Pre-flop is fine.

The pot is enormous now. Bet the flop, and re-raise if it comes back to you. You got a bazillion draws out there so make 'em all pay max price.

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Does leading out on the flop really charge these draws the max price? With a pot this size do I not want to do anything possible to maximize winning it vs. gaining additional value bets? It would seem that this is a case where waiting for the turn to lash out is more appropriate, since nothing I do is going to stop opponents from seeing the turn.

Leading the flop gives my opponents odds of 34-1 minimum. Waiting to the turn and checkraising cuts the odds down to roughly 12-1 for most of my opponents. Is waiting one street not worth cutting odds this drastically? If I pump the pot on the flop then I am going to lose the opportunity to try to protect my aces on the turn.

I guess my real question is should I go with the approach that many here are advocating and say damn the torpedoes full speed ahead, and pump the aces like they were top set, OR should I try and finnesse the hand a little bit much like what is suggested in SSH and HEFAP? Do aces have so much equity in this pot against 8 opponents that trying to protect them is foolish? I don't thinks so, but I'm not sure and thats why I'm asking.

[Jezebel]

Another way of looking at it is do I make more money long term if hands like 22 or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] call my flop bet or fold? If I had my choice I'd rather they fold since they are both have an overlay on the flop. The deuces to make a set and the King for runner runner flush. Nothing I do is going to stop them from seeing the turn, but if I wait til the turn I might get these hands to fold to a double bet which is to my benefit.

It seems to me on the flop there are very few hands that are not correct to call. If everyone is correct to call a flop bet and thus has a slight overlay, how big can my pot equity be? Won't my pot equity jump quite a bit on the turn if a blank falls? Should I not wait for this momemt to maximize my advantage in the hand?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Does leading out on the flop really charge these draws the max price? With a pot this size do I not want to do anything possible to maximize winning it vs. gaining additional value bets? It would seem that this is a case where waiting for the turn to lash out is more appropriate, since nothing I do is going to stop opponents from seeing the turn.

Leading the flop gives my opponents odds of 34-1 minimum. Waiting to the turn and checkraising cuts the odds down to roughly 12-1 for most of my opponents. Is waiting one street not worth cutting odds this drastically? If I pump the pot on the flop then I am going to lose the opportunity to try to protect my aces on the turn.


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Actually, anyone will likely be getting about 20-1 on your raise to call.

Again, i think you played it fine. People will be much more likely to fold to a turn bet/raise than a flop raise here. Your also not 'charging' the draws the max by raising in this spot. What doesn't have an easy call on the flop here?

b

[roy_miami]

I doubt you have to worry about this much at the party 15/30, but the turn getting checked through would suck hard core here.

[Jezebel]

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I doubt you have to worry about this much at the party 15/30, but the turn getting checked through would suck hard core here.

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I wouldn't say that it would suck hard core if it got checked through. It might not be plesant, but not catastrophic as most on these forums would conclude.

I have AA so no overcards can come to beat me. Betting out on the turn is not going to get anyone with a sliver of a chance to beat me to fold. Anyone with a flush draw, a pair or a gutshot are going to call getting 21+-1 on the turn. If it gets checked around on the turn, I might have missed a couple of value bets, but it certainly won't cost me the pot by it getting checked around. The only people who will fold here are the ones drawing stone cold dead and actually it would be better to leave these folks in to the river so they might catch a pair and make a crying call.

I think that most people who have responded to this thread are still in value bet mode and feel that you will make more money in the long term by pumping the pot up at every stage. I think that I disagree with this point of view. I believe that when the pot gets extrememly big preflop you almost have to view the board as the flop containg 4 cards and the river 1 card, since anyone with a shot at beating you is going to see the turn. On the turn you have a chance of getting some folds if you don't pump the pot on the flop. With a pot this size I believe getting opponents to fold is much more beneficial to your long run, than getting value bets from opponents that have a massive overlay to call those bets.

[William Jockusch]

Another line to consider is: bet the flop; check/raise the turn. The point is that with the "small" flop bet, your opponents may be more willing to raise you. If so, you may get in several bets at that time, and that's a good thing.

When you bet the flop and then check the turn, a lot of opponents will assume you are weak and bet it for you.