KQs overcards - call, raise, or fold?

[Sarge85]

A lot of argument being made for raising here - but I don't like it.

Why?
[*] This is a drawless board - and your being bet into - You are behind. Granted - that alone isn't reason to abbonden the hand.
[*]The board is paired. This really really sucks. If you raised - and someone calls two cold - 9 times out of 10, that's the case 4 laying in wait. - if that's the case your way way behind. Couple this with reason one - and you've lost some value.
[*]There are 4 other people in the pot you have to muscle out. If there were 2 or 3 we'd be looking better, but it's getting pretty thin.
[*]You have no other redraws. For me this is the last straw.


Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[Sarge85]

A lot of argument being made for raising here - but I don't like it.

Why?
[*] This is a drawless board - and your being bet into - You are behind. Granted - that alone isn't reason to abbonden the hand.
[*]The board is paired. This really really sucks. If you raised - and someone calls two cold - 9 times out of 10, that's the case 4 laying in wait. - if that's the case your way way behind. Couple this with reason one - and you've lost some value.
[*]There are 4 other people in the pot you have to muscle out. If there were 2 or 3 we'd be looking better, but it's getting pretty thin.
[*]You have no other redraws. For me this is the last straw.


Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[John Paul]

[ QUOTE ]
Remember why we're raising: to get UTG and BB to fold. Nothing we do is going to get MP1 to fold, unless he's on a stone bluff. But he's probably not on a bluff, so he's calling our raise....

Let's try to put UTG and BB on likely hands.

The big blind could have literally any random hand down to 72o, since he just checked the BB.

For UTG, big broadway cards like AQ are out, and so are pocket pairs 99 or higher since they all would (should) have raised PF. So we are down to cards like KT-K2, A8-A2, Q9-Q2, J9-J2, and pocket pairs 8 or lower since they didn't raise PF. Also very likely are suited connectors, like 78s, T8s, 53s. That's a lot of junk they were comig in with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I basically agree with you, but I am not sure I agree with your reading of the other players. Folks should raise with big pocket pairs and often with two high cards - but often they don't. If you know that these players will raise, then it makes it easier to put them on a hand, but I wouldn't assume that if you did not have a good read on them. If they are very passive pre-flop then they could have any hand.

You might be able to drive out the Ax cards here - but most of the rest of these cards it doesn't matter much. You need a K or a Q -so a Jx or connector card means nothing to you, either you hit or they do, and if you don't hit you lose either way to the bettor. An AQ or AK probably will stick around, as will anyone with a 9 or 4. So, do you really want Kx or similar hands to drop? K2 or K3 - you have the same w pair if you get a K, but hero has bettter kicker. K6-K8 - If you get the K you will some action here and will be a heavy favorite. KT-KQ or AQ - ulikely to drop, and you are ahead of all but KQ and AK. Same with Qx. I don't know what combination of hole cards and board cards you are hoping to push out, that won't go out for 1 bet.

Driving out weak hands doesn't help if you are already behing because it is unlikely that both you and the weak hand improve and the weak hand ends up beating you in this particular hand. I think this is a situation where stronger hands than yours will call and it will be -EV to raise.

Obviously there are many hands where a raise will protect you, but I think here the combination of being behind, the wide range of hands that could be ahead and the few outs you are drawing to makes this hand a better one to call than raise. If you felt it was likely you were ahead or even, then a raise would be good, but I don't think this is one of those situations.

[LeftBack]

Fish play lots of AKQ|94 combinations. It looks like someone caught the flop and you are behind.

You don't have enough outs to call without the flush draw, so choose one: raise or fold. You have to raise if you want to play, because those other idiots could bet and end up making you pay extra to stay. If they leave, you might have a chance heads up, but there's still a good chance TPTK is no good.

I fold, it's a small pot.

[flair1239]

In this situation I would have raised (but not been too happy about it).

Reason being is this is a flop that obviously missed an overcard hand. Depending on the level of sophistication of MP1, he realises this. Again depending on MP1, maybe he has a 9 or a med-small pocket (he could have a four, but I don't think we can just assume that from his one bet).

A raise may fold the CO. If you are really having a good day, you will end up heads-up with MP1.

I would raise and then see what happens after that.

[GrunchCan]

it's a small pot.

5 players see the flop for 2 bets each, and you still think the pot is small? No, this pot is borderline huge, let alone not small.

[LeftBack]

As stated, the final pot was 6.25 BB.

My average $.5/$1 pot over last 15k hands is 8.25.

This pot is not huge, or even average. It might have been average if hero stuck another 2BB into it, but his effective odds would have been terrible.

Yes, it's small.

[meep_42]

That's a product of the post-flop action. On the flop, the pot is 10.5 SB and that's where you need to make your decision. If you raise here, you're going to exceed that pot size by the turn.

-d

[theghost]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise. Call a 3-bet.

If 3-bet, check/fold the turn UI
If not 3-bet, take the free card, if offered, fold to a bet UI on the turn. I probably call down with a K or Q on the turn.

If it becomes heads-up on the flop, bet the turn if checked to.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Meep - I'm raising and folding to a 3-bet. Can you explain your reasoning for a call?

[LeftBack]

You also need to estimate effective odds when you decide to continue. If you raise and try to force this heads up, and villain keeps betting, your effective odds are about 3:8.75.

If you think there's a STRONG (3:8.75 minus your puny outs) chance villain is bluffing or you can knock him out with aggression, fine. I believe villain has caught a piece of the bot, and he will not fold, so I will fold this hand.