KQs overcards - call, raise, or fold?

[tizim]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ?.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

This situation comes up a lot and it really puzzles me. Something tells me that I should've raised to maximize my chances of winning this big pot, but I don't see what hands I would get to fold that I would want to fold. I ended up just calling and folding the turn UI.

[Shillx]

I would probably fold here. This flop totally missed you.

Brad

[zephed56]

===I'm just thinking out loud here, I'm a newbie, but I'll give it a shot.===

Eh, flop sucks, I probably give up on the flop here sometimes. Depends who it is.
-How often do you suspect they bluff?
-Do they like to take shots at the tight or weak preflop raisers?

I tend not to assume someone has trips in these situations, and most of the time, it is the correct assumption.

If I raise the flop, what overcard outs am I cleaning up?
-AK &amp; AQ which are not that likely due to preflop action.
-K9, Q9? I don't think they will fold anyway.

Any lesser K or Q would be nice to keep around so we can get action on our overcards.
There's only 1 overcard that can hurt me, the A, which we could probably eliminate with a raise. Any other overcards lower than ours will fold too I believe.

So if you raise, you may get it heads up with MP1, if he's weak, you may bluff him off his 9. Any other player is not folding with a 9.
I think a raise to thin the field and get it heads up is a good play because it's a decent size pot worth fighting for, and a raise will increase your winning chances. He could even be bluffing.

What about calling? Maybe you'll get more people to come along and pad the pot with you. When your overcard hits, you are rarely dominated and may get action from a weaker K or Q.

I really don't know. I'm just thinking.

[Kasumeat]

I think the chance that you're nearly dead to a 4 is enough to make this a fold.

[aron]

Just looked at the hand questions in SSH this morning.
I have a feeling that if this was Ed Miller speaking the argument would be somewhat that you should not fold a pot this big with your potential 6 outs.

I think it might be a good idea to throw in a raise to get a feeling of what youre up against.
It might also buy you the button and give you a freecard on the river.

-aron

[tizim]

What if the flop were 9 4 2 rainbow instead? Would it still be an easy fold?

[aron]

I don't think this is a fold at all. It's either a 6-out or a being very very dead (In my books needing runner runner trips is dead).

The pair on the flop drastically reduces the chances that anyone hit the flop as well.

I would like to hear more comments on this/ aron

[Kenrick]

[ QUOTE ]
What if the flop were 9 4 2 rainbow instead? Would it still be an easy fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's betting into the preflop raiser, I have to give him credit for holding something better than I am, which is only overcards. A9 might be good for him. Even 88 makes my king-high look poor. Depending on mood, I'd take one off and see the turn, but with two 4's, even though I doubt anyone has one, it doesn't seem worth the bother with two players still behind me.

Notice that even ace-high currently beats you.

[HesseJam]

I think it's a fold. Intuitively, I said a raise but I am raising too much lately.

I can't see calling would accomplish a lot because It is likely that you will be bet into at the turn. Even if you spiked a K it would be difficult then.

He could have a 4 (prolly sooted) or A9, K9, maybe 99, TT, JJ (these are often not raised on the flop). You have 6 outs, if you hit you win the pot maybe 70% of the time? If you raise, you may at least clear out weak aces, so that you do not have to account for 3 aces against you. So, raising is 2 for 11 and if you discount the 11 with 30%, it is 2 for 7.5 = 1 for 3. I don't think 6 outs are enough here.

[HajiShirazu]

I would take one off and see the turn getting 11-1. No reason to think that a K or Q isn't going to give you the best hand a majority of the time.