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#21
11-04-2004, 12:15 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
You all have not even factored in the possibility of injuries. Freak injuries happen all the time. How do you change things if McNaab, Owens, an offensive lineman, or a key person on the defense goes down?
In this league, there are just too many things that can go wrong. I hate New England but I have to reapect what they did to win that many games in a row. 
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#22
11-04-2004, 12:36 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
That is so true. One could argue that the only difference between Carolina and Pittsburg last year was the fact that Carolina was healthy all year and Pittsburg was not. Contrast that with this year (the opposite) and voila...Pittsburg has 1 loss and Carolina sucks.
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#23
11-04-2004, 12:42 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
Sorry, I thought that's what "Eagles going undefeated" meant.
Okay, 5:1 against the Eagles being 16-0 come playoff time.
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#24
11-04-2004, 12:42 PM
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Re: I\'d say more like 50:1
Can I bet $10 on this? 50:1 is too much to pass up
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#25
11-04-2004, 01:22 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
Correct, as I stated in the initial post. I would change things if McNabb/Owens/OL went down. They have good depth at D and are more about the system than the players, so wouldn't really change things there. Would have to figure out prob % of injury.
Edit: said in my 2nd post.
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#26
11-04-2004, 03:48 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
[ QUOTE ]
Correct, as I stated in the initial post. I would change things if McNabb/Owens/OL went down. They have good depth at D and are more about the system than the players, so wouldn't really change things there. Would have to figure out prob % of injury. Edit: said in my 2nd post. [/ QUOTE ] You can't go changing the bet based on future injuries...the chances of those injuries have to be built into the odds when the bet takes place. If you have the Chiefs at -5 and Priest Holmes breaks his leg on the first play of the game, you cannot go back and ask for a pickem.
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#27
11-04-2004, 04:13 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
I agree, and no kidding. As i should have more explicitly said, i did not factor potential of injury in my math, and wondered what the general prob would be.
[ QUOTE ] It's somewhere around 28%, which would be like 2.5:1. Of course this doesn't include the potential for major unexpected injuries. [/ QUOTE ]
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#29
11-04-2004, 05:12 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
Philly almost lost at Cleveland.
They aren't exactly a 'dominant' team and I'm not really sure why you would think they are. They are a very good team of course....but 80-85% favorite for each game, on average, is just not realistic.
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#30
11-04-2004, 05:36 PM
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Re: What would you say the odds of the Eagles going undefeated are?
hmmm, i guess i should put a factor in for officiating...i understand your point, but you don't consider 7-0 a dominant team? Or a team that leads the NFC in both (ave) PF and PA? (obviously win margin?). You can still be a dominant team and have a close call. Please do not say Baltimore was a close call as well.
Edit: Also, if your expected win rate is 75%, do you bump it up when they play, say, the Redskins? 80-85% is not ridiculous in football. They can still lose while being a 4:1 fav. You've never lost to a flush draw on the river (the any given sunday theory)?
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