Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?

[goldcowboy]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think it has to do with the religious vote. I think a lot of people turned out for Bush as a result of what they perceived to be essentially a private matter of faith, piety, or duty. I think these people are somewhat more likely than other types of voters to shuffle off quietly home after voting, rather than answer a pollster's battery of questions.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is really a stretch to make this assertion. I believe that religious folks would be just as likely as any other demographic group to talk to pollsters. It is entertaining observing you liberals trying to construct bogus theories like this while systematically denying the obvious media bias that lies at the root of this.

And I don't shuffle. I swagger.

[sfer]

I believe the exit polling conclusions should extrapolate through different demographic cuts, so a disproportionate male/female ratio wouldn't change much.

[Kopefire]

I think it's simply a matter of the kind of people who fall into each party.

I suspect that the average Republican is slightly more likely to conclude that who they voted for is no one's business at all than the average Democrat.

This is just a suspicion, but even a few percentages difference in the willingness to answer the pollster questions could have a major impact on the outcome.

[dana33]

[ QUOTE ]
Any questions?

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL. Yes, one question: Do I have to look forward to 4 more years of moonbat conspiracy theories? If so, it's going to be a fun time.

[MMMMMM]

Maybe the media pollsters selected interviewees on bias, or maybe exiting voters somehow gamed the situation. Or, maybe the ABB faction were just more likely--and perhaps even eager--to spend time on the interview process.

I read elsewhere that exit polls have never been wrong to such a great extent as this, and that exit polls have in the past shown an error towards the conservative side rather than the liberal side.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I read elsewhere that exit polls have never been wrong to such a great extent as this, and that exit polls have in the past shown an error towards the conservative side rather than the liberal side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Past history has shown that some of the ideas presented in this thread (young voters speak up more, Republicans mind their own business and don't talk to pollsters, etc.) are unlikely to be correct. And the magnitude of the errors, from what I read on multiple sources, was unprecedented.

That's why I really think something like this conspiracy theory might not be as wacky as it seems on first glance.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
How much of the discrepancy can be attributed to voters lying about their vote?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. For a lot of different reasons, people lie to pollsters. I think that a lot of the pre-election "undecideds" knew that they were going to vote for Bush, but either didn't want to say that to a pollster, or were still talking themselves into holding their noses and voting for Bush as the lesser of 2 evils.

This was discussed on MSNBC last night. In this election in particular, many Bush voters lied about their votes in exit polls because they don't trust the media or they felt intimidated by pollsters and media who they perceive to be pro-Kerry.

The extreme case of this was discussed by Ron Silver, one of the few show business types who is pro-Bush. He said that he knows a lot of people in show business who voted for Bush, but publicly supported Kerry for career reasons because of political pressure within the industry.

[goldcowboy]

I think media bias is real and is responsible for the exit polling inaccuracies. However I wouldn't go so far as saying it was a conscious conspiracy on anyone's part, although the possibility of this is certainly greater than zero. I think it much more likely that the liberal perspective of those involved in the exit polling led them to construct their models based on their biased perception of reality. They factored in those components that they thought important, and their bias caused them to put too much weight on factors friendly to a Kerry outcome and too little weight on factors friendly to a Bush outcome. Their desire for the world to truly be as they wished it to be clouded their judgment. Similar to my not laying down pocket kings with an ace-high board and lots of action...

[elwoodblues]

I think the long term effects of the past few elections will be that people will view polling as more of an art than a science.

[Zim]

Well, I`m probably wasting my time ... but you can read this article for a little education.

----------------------------------------------
An election that already may be spoiled rotten
Editor’s note: In 2001, the BBC’s Greg Palast broke the story of how Bush won Florida. Hint: It wasn’t the hanging chads. The presidency was stolen long before any votes were cast. Using an error-ridden database of alleged felons, the state of Florida was able to knock tens of thousands of eligible voters off the voter rolls – the vast majority of whom were black. An executive from the company who provided the service later admitted in a hearing held by then-Georgia congresswoman Cynthia McKinney that he had warned Katherine Harris’ office that the process would result in thousands of innocent voters being disenfranchised. He testified that the response back from the state was – knock more off. Now Palast is back, and breaking the stories of how this election may be stolen – this time he’s doing it in real-time. It may just save this country from another coup:

John Kerry is down by several thousand votes in New Mexico, though not one ballot has yet been counted. He’s also losing big time in Colorado and Ohio; and he’s way down in Florida, though the votes won’t be totaled until Tuesday night.

Through a combination of sophisticated vote rustling—ethnic cleansing of voter rolls, absentee ballots gone AWOL, machines that “spoil” votes—John Kerry begins with a nationwide deficit that could easily exceed one million votes.

http://www.gnn.tv/articles/article.php?id=795

---------------------------------------------------

I have many more links, but after reading a few posts on the forum ... I think it`s a wasted effort.

I`ll be honest, I am trying to give the benefit of the doubt, here, to America.

But it`s becoming increasingly difficult.