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#1
11-03-2004, 04:45 AM
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Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
Sure, exit polls are always off to some degree. But the exit polls all day were just staggeringly in favor of Kerry. What happened here? Yeah, sure, margin of error. But the margin of error on each one went the same way. Seemed like every single poll was way wrong overstating Kerry numbers (including the states he won). What gives?
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#2
11-03-2004, 04:48 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
I have my theory on this that I've been cooking up all night.
Most of these polls seemed to be conducted around 2pm. In this huge turnout, many polling stations were open later and I suspect that much of the extra turnout were male who managed to vote at a later time, whilst earlier in the day was the female vote (Which was Kerry orientated) Lori
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#3
11-03-2004, 04:51 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
It could be that Kerry supports really believe they got shafted in 2000 so they wanted to show up early. As Lorinda mentioned it could be the demographics of who voted earlier in the day. It could have been a systematic flaw in the poll, or it could have been an effort to put the word out that Kerry was going to win (I don't really believe that, but I put the probability of that as greater than 0).
RR
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#4
11-03-2004, 04:55 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
[ QUOTE ]
It could be that Kerry supports really believe they got shafted in 2000 ... [/ QUOTE ] They absolutely do believe they got shafted. Wait for the conspiracy theories to start appearing on this forum and elsewhere stating that the voting machines were rigged and whatever. That's how many will account for the difference.
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#5
11-03-2004, 04:57 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
I think it was because the turnout was so high and they were guessing on the statistical models. Turnout hadn't been so high since 1960 so they didn't have very good historical data with the turnout at that level and were shooting in the dark as far as the modeling goes.
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#6
11-03-2004, 05:38 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
59% of those asked were women.
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#7
11-03-2004, 06:08 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
They are not accurate. They were not accurate in 2000, 2002 and now. The media just needs go ahead and rely on actual vote counts fot predicting results and use exit polls to get underlying information.
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#9
11-03-2004, 06:11 AM
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Re: Why were the exit polls so drastically wrong?
[ QUOTE ]
Whilst you are right, what would we talk about all day [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Lori [/ QUOTE ] Or move markets wildly with [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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Linear Mode
