I'm looking for a reason not to give up on this hand....

razor · #1 06-29-2004, 01:24 PM

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds,

Flop: (13.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises, CO folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 caps, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 raises, Button calls, Hero ????

MP2 seems decent enough not to get too far out of line, ie. he has something that beats my hand. There's a ton of bets in the pot but UTG+1 has sprung to life after watching MP2 and I get into a raising war on the flop. Can anyone find a reason here for me to grit my teeth and call?

B Dids · #2 06-29-2004, 01:32 PM

Umm... 'cause you like drawing to a gutshot for a split? MP2 screams KJ to me. Do you think UTG+1 will 3-bet?

k000k · #3 06-29-2004, 01:39 PM

Thats a rough raise preflop... Well, lessee here, you have top pair with a good kicker, there's a total rainbow on the board, the pot is really damn big, and I doubt the guy has KJ, since he is forcing a lotta players to call 2 cold.

However, reasons TO fold may outweigh that... Nobody seems to be scared of top pair, or everyone's an absolute maniac. With all that turn action, I dunno if your top pair is good here. MP2 capped the flop and shows no signs of slowing down whatsoever.. 5 outs requires 8:1, which you are just *barely* getting, and if UTG re-raises, you WON'T be getting.. That's 5 outs assuming they're all good, which they may not be. 2 pair may not win anyway, so I'd give you 3.5 or so, and the pot isn't even close to big enough to call for that.

This whole thing reeks of a set to me.. If you have any respect for this player, or NO read for that matter, I'd fold. There's just too much resistance...

razor · #4 06-29-2004, 01:40 PM

UTG+1 was undeterred by all previous action and comes out firing on the turn showing no fear, I thought there was a reasonable chance he'd 3 bet.

MP2's play felt more like a made hand too me in this situation. Not to say players don't play OESDs like this, just didn't feel like it here.

Jaran · #5 06-29-2004, 01:42 PM

Hey razor,
It looks to me like you're up against a set and a str8 or 2 str8s. Fold and wait until a better opportunity.

-Jaran

k000k · #6 06-29-2004, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 screams KJ to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You wouldnt make 3 ppl cold call 2 if you're drawing an OESD would ya? Or cap after 3 folded and only 3 are left, that's -EV for sure.. I think he'd wait for the turn for that...

I say it's a set...

razor · #7 06-29-2004, 01:46 PM

Players are way loose at this table, but aren't maniacs. There may be a few crap hands along for the ride but players wouldn't be driving the action with hands that fear TPGK.

LeftBack · #8 06-29-2004, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You wouldn't make 3 ppl cold call 2 if you're drawing an OESD would ya?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never thought of it that way. Thanks for the insight.

B Dids · #9 06-29-2004, 01:48 PM

I'm reading things backwards. UTG+1 has KJ... and he will 3-bet. I like a fold here.

razor · #10 06-29-2004, 01:50 PM

This was my thinking. I couldn't come up with a reason to continue and folded. UTG+1 3 bet the Turn and MP2 capped.