What do you do on this river? - Page 4

durron597 · #31 05-12-2005, 02:51 PM

Now that I think about it more it occurs to me that by check-calling you don't get any equity except what's in the pot when he checks behind. How many hands does he check behind with that call a bet? Does that equity balance with the hands that he raises a bet with that beat you?

adanthar · #32 05-12-2005, 03:11 PM

Yes.

So far, he's limp/called once, checked once, and made a really small bet once. There's no reason to believe that he has anything worth mentioning, and he'll check 90% of his hands behind, so you ought to make AT pay *something*.

Basically, if you check this river, you had no business calling the turn. (You had no business calling it anyway, but by calling, you implied you can often make a couple of hundred chips at the end. You can, but not if you check.)

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In a $200, I'd fold to a river raise. In a $5, sometimes they raise because one of their cards looks pretty, so you call (maybe not a push, it depends.)

go fish · #33 05-12-2005, 03:11 PM

Well, what hand does he have if he bets after you check? Does Q or T bet? 2 pair? Straight? That 3rd heart scares a lot of people. He made a teeny bet on the turn. I really think at this level, at least half the time when he bets after you check to him on the river he has a flush.

I'm not sold on check/calling the river.

durron597 · #34 05-12-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, what hand does he have if he bets after you check? Does Q or T bet? 2 pair? Straight? That 3rd heart scares a lot of people. He made a teeny bet on the turn. I really think at this level, at least half the time when he bets after you check to him on the river he has a flush.

I'm not sold on check/calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

At first I was undecided, then I convinced myself of check/call, now I'm undecided again [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

go fish · #35 05-12-2005, 03:47 PM

Haha, well I guess the lesson is that you should have folded the turn. Man, I hate that though...that is such a tiny bet.

Note to self: Must remember...NO SET NO BET. NO SET NO BET.

curtains · #36 05-12-2005, 03:51 PM

I would tend to bet the river. Of course I wouldn't call on the turn.

durron597 · #37 05-12-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I would tend to bet the river. Of course I wouldn't call on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to think that's the way to go too... but on the turn, what percent of the time do you think you're behind?

PrayingMantis · #38 05-12-2005, 05:01 PM

The turn call is very marginal, to say the least. Very possible you are drawing to 2 (or even 1) outs there, and since you practically have 0 FE on the river against $5 players when you don't hit, this is not a good call. And it's far from a good enough spot to play your hand to catch this guy's "bluff" or something.

On the river you have to bet, IMO. If you get raised you have to consider the situation.

uphigh_downlow · #39 05-12-2005, 05:38 PM

I saw a lot of people advocating cvheck/calling as a safe play here. While it is safe, it seems that there is a lot more hands that the CO will call with than he will bet with.

Remember he is thinking the same "safe play"

Its unlikely he wants to give you the chance to make a play at him.

This is a DEFINITE bet in my opinion. If you get raised, well then you have a game of poker to deal with.

as an aside, your betsize at this stage could be cruial. You can crunch the numbers yourself for the right figure

pergesu · #40 05-12-2005, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why you don't like check-call.

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I like check/call best after thinking about it.

I still think the bad players at the 5's pay off a check raise with alot of inferior hands here but I agree its not worth the risk of being forced to call an all-in.

I don't like betting out, because I want to get paid off for what is likely the best hand, and I think a check is most likely to do that. If you bet out it looks like you represent the flush. And then he folds his AT. If you check/call he'll bet most of the time with many weak hands, if he checks behind well then he wasnt going to pay you anyway.

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No he won't, he's going to check behind with anything worse than TP. But he'll call a small bet with a lot of hands.

Alright, I'm just gonna be bold and say this. Betting out on the river is the correct play here. Checking is flat out wrong. I've explained it a couple times already, and I think adanthar gave the same explanation. Go back through the thread for the details.

To all of you people that say to check the river, what are you thinking? The guy checked the flop, and made a tiny bet on the turn. That means he has CRAP and is hoping to steal the pot right there. So why is he betting the river? Unless he's over aggressive, he gives up and checks behind. But he'll still call a bet, because he doesn't want to believe you're stealing it from him because you interpretted his bet as weakness.

sheesh