genoa_st step 5 higher -- he made a correct call

[wuwei]

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It seems like most people here think the overcall with 99 was a good play.

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Nah, I don't see people saying that. The point is that based on the payout structure, it is not in fact the worst overcall in the history of SNGs.

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I would not have put rojo on a big hand, besides the fact that I think he mad one all in before that hand. I would have feared the(horrible) call from bik. Genoa wasnt pot committed or anything, so I do not see why he would overcall here, besides the face that if he won, he would win the whole thing. It seems like to me at best, he was aganist 4 overcards. At worst, he had a 2 outer. I would have folded.

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I agree with all that. My jaw hit the floor when I saw AT get flipped over. If it had been me with 99, I know I could have found a better spot to take my stab at $100,000. In fact, I can only imagine how tight my ass would have been in that game - uncomfortably tight, constipated for a weak tight. I suppose that's why you won't see me in that game anytime soon.

[curtains]

Against the raisers range in this situation, wouldnt ATo be a signifigant favorite over them, not to mention the dead money in the pot and the top heavy prize structure. Im surprised everyone thinks that's a terrible call as my instincts tell me it's a pretty routine play. If anyone has the math ready to tell me that I'm wrong, bring it on.

[BigHobo]

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The simple fact of the matter is that you will be hard-pressed to find 2 reasonable hands 99 is going to be winning vs more than 50% of the time.

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No doubt about that but he doesn't need to win 50% of the time for this move to make sense since he would be tripling up (especially important given the payout structure).

I break it down like this. Possible hands for the other two fall into the following categories:

1) PP lower than 9's
2) Two cards higher than 9
3) PP higher than 9's

As long as neither player has category 3 the probability of winning with 99 is close to 45%, making this an easy call. The only concern is one of the players having a category 3 hand. The initial raiser might (and did, obviously), but given the wide range of hands someone would push with in that situation I wouldn't think it likely. The real concern is the re-raiser. However, I'm guessing that if the re-raiser had AA or KK that he probably would have just called in order to entice more chips into the pot. So I see this whole question coming down to the liklihood that the re-raiser had TT, JJ or QQ. Under the circumstances, I think the re-raisers possible hands are much wider than that. On balance, I think the 99 call was probably a worthy call.

FWIW, when I first saw the play I thought it was the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Maybe that's why I don't play the $15k games.

[john_]

I thought they both played the hand horribly. But I've seen genoa_st make this type of overcall before on his blind. Also, the caller between him and Rojo was horrible so I guess he figured his call wouldn't be that wrong.

[wuwei]

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Against the raisers range in this situation, wouldnt ATo be a signifigant favorite over them

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Against any pair, any A, and any two broadway, ATo is a 55% favorite. Is that significant enough? My sense at the time was that Rojo's pushing range was slightly tighter than this, but I could certainly be wrong about that.


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not to mention the dead money in the pot and the top heavy prize structure. Im surprised everyone thinks that's a terrible call as my instincts tell me it's a pretty routine play. If anyone has the math ready to tell me that I'm wrong, bring it on.

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Well, my quick and dirty ICM calculations say that if we assume that genoa is folding the BB, you need to win over 40% of the time for this call to be +$EV. With this structure and the blinds, I'm not surprised that the math supports calling. I didn't think it would be quite that low, though.

I see your point, but I'm not comfortable calling off over half my stack with ATo 7 handed when I feel like I still have a decent stack for stealing and I've just passed the blinds.

[curtains]

I think its an easy call. You want to turn down a clear +EV situation in a 15k buyin tournament where the blinds are very high and the prize pool is top heavy? It's not like you are playing children here that you can easily take advantage of later on.

[BeerGolfPoker]

I agree, I think this is a definite all-in for ATo. Rojo's probably going to be pushing a whole lot of hands here (as he should be). AT is gonna fair well against that wide range.

I think the payout structure makes this even an easier call. The times you win this pot you will be in very good shape to make a run at first.