genoa_st step 5 higher -- he made a correct call

[MagnoliasFM]

Come on guys, I watched the step 5 higher tournament and after I read everyone on here's commentary you guys made it seem like genoa_st made a dumb call for all his chips with 99. The truth is, this call is +EV.

Genoa_st is a known good high-stakes SNG player and is probably better than most people who post in this forum. He doesn't care about squeaking into the money and was going for 1st place only (which is a good strategy in a 10-3-2 payout structure SNG). He had a chance to more than triple up and knock out two players, and was only in trouble if there was an overpair out against him. If neither player had an overpair to his 9's he would be around 40-50% to win, getting a huge overlay. I suck at math and a math geek would have to confirm this, but if you figure in the range of hands each player would push with, I believe the call with 99 to be +Real Money EV. Rojosox had less than 4 times the big blind and does not need an overpair to 99 to be making his push. Also, consider the fact that bikkje went all-in with AT, so that means he would've gone in with AK, AQ, AJ, and AT at least, and who knows what else.

Maybe I'm just delusional?

[microbet]

I wasn't real serious in the other post. I didn't know it was 10-3-2 payout. It seems like a bad call in a 5-3-2 payout. If Eastbay's thing had this structure and if the post had all the stacks showing I'd do some math now. I can't get away with doing it the slower way at work.

One of you guys who hasn't posted an $EV evaluation should do it.

[Voltron87]

What about the AT all in? I don't know the exact history or counts, but I know the QQ and 99 player were before him. How did he get all in with AT there?

[wuwei]

Anyone have a history with the complete table stack sizes?

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have a history with the complete table stack sizes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask and ye shall receive:

***** Hand History for Game 1968557346 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 11730461) - Thu Apr 28 20:58:04 EDT 2005
Table Step Higher 5 1014153 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: bikkje (1445)
Seat 4: genoa_st (1305)
Seat 5: z079236 (2125)
Seat 6: wsopin05 (555)
Seat 7: gbertell (2190)
Seat 8: RoJoSox (730)
Seat 10: bigjonsta (1650)
bikkje posts small blind (100)
genoa_st posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
z079236 folds.
wsopin05 folds.
gbertell folds.
RoJoSox raises (730) to 730
RoJoSox is all-In.
bigjonsta folds.
bikkje raises (1345) to 1445
bikkje is all-In.
genoa_st calls (1105)
genoa_st is all-In.
Creating Main Pot with $2190 with RoJoSox
Creating Side Pot 1 with $1150 with genoa_st
Creating Side Pot 2 with $140 with bikkje
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5c, Ad, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Js ]
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2190 | Side Pot 1: 1150 | Side Pot 2: 140
Board: [ 5c Ad 3c 4d Js ]
bikkje balance 3480, bet 1445, collected 3480, net +2035 [ Ac Ts ] [ a pair of aces -- Ac,Ad,Js,Ts,5c ]
genoa_st balance 0, lost 1305 [ 9s 9d ] [ a pair of nines -- Ad,Js,9s,9d,5c ]
z079236 balance 2125, didn't bet (folded)
wsopin05 balance 555, didn't bet (folded)
gbertell balance 2190, didn't bet (folded)
RoJoSox balance 0, lost 730 [ Qd Qc ] [ a pair of queens -- Ad,Qd,Qc,Js,5c ]
bigjonsta balance 1650, didn't bet (folded)

[Rojosox]

I've played SEVERAL tourneys with Genoa... HE made a terrible call. He apparently does not respect my game, but that is irrelevant here. Him calling me ONLY is a good play. Him calling 2 all-ins in front is again moronic. You have anywhere between 3 overcards, to 2 possible overpairs in front. He was not in good position. Here's why : the guy who went 2nd all-in is calling me. Assuming that he has some brains it's not going to be with a pair of 2s, therefore he has ATLEAST 2 overcards, if not an overpair. Putting your entire game on the line with 9s with 2 all-ins in front may be decent for $30 game, but not a 100k game. He clearly was in deep trouble on this hand and there's no way this play is +EV AT THIS LEVEL.

-Jared

[Van Strummer]

Lets see if I can do this:
Before the hand starts genoa has a stack of 1305, but he is in the big blind so if he folds his stack will be 1105 = $EV0.115. This is when I split his blind between the two all ins.

If he calls and loses that is a $EV of 0, but if he wins the hand his stack will be:
730 + 1305*2 = 3340
bikkje will be left with 140 and Rojo will be out. This will be a $EV of 0.3052

If Rojo wins, but geno beats bikkje, genoa will be left with 1150, bikkje will have 140 left, and Rojo 2190. $EV=0.1211

If we put bikkje on AK, AQ, AJ, AT, AA, KK, QQ, JJ and TT and Rojo on AK-A6, KQ, any suited broadways and AA-55. The chance of winning is 34%
The chance of Rojo winning is 25% and if we run the 9s headsup vs. bikkjes range I get a win% of 43%

The $EV of the call is:
0.3052*0.34 + 0.1211*0.25*0.43= 0.117

Compared to 0.115 of folding pushing is actually the best move. If the real hand ranges are wider the push will become even better. On the other hand if Rojo has a tighter range as he seems to imply in his posts the push is not good.

Hope I didn't make any mistakes.

[curtains]

Rojos range will not be tight here with 700 chips and 100-200 blinds. There is no chance he would fold any of the hands you mentioned, and would be insane not to push with even more hands in this spot.

[Voltron87]

i got the hand history wrong. scratch that last post.

[TheUsher]

Is $EV based on 5/3/2 payout or 10/3/2? It would matter and make an even better case for pushing if the math you posted is correct then, right? Also, Rojo is pushing WAY more than those hands you posted which should increase this then.