$55 early play - post flop question

[Scuba Chuck]

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Also, if an A hit, I really hope you wouldn't fold. Do you see why?

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yeah, I realized it later, but hoped no one would comment on it.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it.

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I like what you are saying, but I think this is giving a bit too much credit to the villian. We are only talking about calling 60. If he's willing to call UTG, he's probably willing to call here.

When the flop is paired, the first person to bet usually wins it, so Scuba's bet doesn't mean that much to me. Many people would checkraise with a 3 in Scuba's position, so I don't think the villian is too worried about a 3 at this point. Many players will call, and then see what Scuba does on the turn.

Once Scuba bets the turn, he has to be a bit more concerned about the 3. However, if he is willing to put all his chips in on a bluff, this is clearly the time to do it.

This is why I didn't think he was bluffing on the river. It makes a lot more sense for him to push the turn when the King falls.

I find this type of thing very difficult. I can think of how I'd play the hand, but it's hard to put him on a hand when he is playing like a total moron. I might play 77 like he did, but other than that, I'm clueless.

Maybe he has 99, maybe K7, a draw, who knows. When in doubt, call I guess.

edit: btw - I voted fold, but now I've overanalyzed this.

[nokona13]

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P.S. You should really be playing this hand like you have a 3, not a 7 as clearly evidenced by your actions in the hand.

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Say he checked the BB with like J3o or something. This seems like a plausible line with the flush draw out there. Maybe a little extra scared of the flush draw, but is his line here SO obviously a 7?

That said, if he has a read on UTG as non-aggro, I don't mind a bet here on the flop. I'd probably bet a bit less, like 45, but I'd say that after the limp-fest and the 733 board, he's gonna win it right there at least 1/2 the time. The turn bet I don't like as much. If you think he's on the flush draw, it just seems too many of the club hands he'd call with UTG include a king. What clubs make this play? Probably AQ, scared/passive/mixing it up AK, KQ, maybe KJ or QJ. My only guess is mid-PP, but there are obviously lots of possible hands if this is stone cold...

Edit: Okay, I was giving villain WAY too much credit. And after having read everyone's analysis, I really like this line. I think you're going to be beat a fair percentage of the time, but his line is definitely a tip that a bluff is very possible. If I'd had any indication he was the kind of player who could limp T4s UTG, then I like to think I might call this. Though I've been getting rivered out the ass recently, so I might fold assuming he has a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ColdestCall]

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Now, the pot sized bet on the flop from BB is either the BB representing a three and trying to steal the pot, the BB actually having a three and not wanting to give free cards on a two club flop, or it could be a seven (or a few other things, like two clubs semibluffing, but the first three are the most likely). The presence of those three's, however, means that when UTG flat calls, he has to be drawing at a hand that can beat trips if he makes it (if he is drawing). He won't flat call with two overs, because he's not sure his hand is good if he makes it.

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I like what you are saying, but I think this is giving a bit too much credit to the villian. We are only talking about calling 60. If he's willing to call UTG, he's probably willing to call here.

When the flop is paired, the first person to bet usually wins it, so Scuba's bet doesn't mean that much to me. Many people would checkraise with a 3 in Scuba's position, so I don't think the villian is too worried about a 3 at this point. Many players will call, and then see what Scuba does on the turn.
Once Scuba bets the turn, he has to be a bit more concerned about the 3. However, if he is willing to put all his chips in on a bluff, this is clearly the time to do it.
...
I find this type of thing very difficult. I can think of how I'd play the hand, but it's hard to put him on a hand when he is playing like a total moron.


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I hear ya. And you're probably right about giving Villain too much credit (clearly right in this particular case). My problem here is, like you said, I can think of how I might play the hand, and I can't imagine flat calling the flop with two overs. I can very easily imagine raising with two overs, but not calling. Any player that would flat call with two overs, however, would most certainly raise when he hit the turn, and this one didn't, so flush draw becomes much more likely (even if it is being played exceptionally poorly).