$55 early play - post flop question

[Scuba Chuck]

What are your thoughts on this river bet by villain?
<font color="white"> villain has T4clubs </font>
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter

Button (t855)
SB (t1000)
Hero (t1985)
UTG (t685)
UTG+1 (t2610)
MP1 (t975)
MP2 (t975)
CO (t915)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t15, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t60) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t60</font>, UTG calls t60, UTG+1 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (t180) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t180</font>, UTG calls t180.

River: (t540) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t430 (All-In)</font>, Hero ......

[Apathy]

There are three options:

1. Villian has two medium clubs and is bluffing
2. Villian has two clubs but turned a K and wants value now (unlikely)
3.Villian excessivly slowplayed a 3.

I always feel that most people would raise the turn with 333 to prevent against the flush draw, and for value. Failing that most bet small for value on the river. This leads me to call and hop the villian didn't have the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
call and hop the villian

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, villain's not yugo, or "put the pipe down."

[Degen]

thats a tuffy. as with most of the hands you put up, i don't think there is a clear answer here.

the fact that he came in UTG (hopefully) would mean he doesn't have a 3 in his hand, but i'd say this is what you'd see ~25% of the time. Another strong possibility is that K and he was calling w/ overs on the flop, or less likely but still plausible would be KK or AA.

I fold this just because its so early and you have so many chips here, its not really about reads or pot odds or anything else, its about clinging to your chips.

I probably check this turn as well.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

So, let's go through my thought process. What is villain playing at here?

Well, my initial bet and call means very little, IMO.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

River: I checked the river for one reason. I felt that a completed/made hand would bet less, to induce a call (or reraise). And I felt a push indicated a bluff. Any thoughts? (I wholeheartedly expected a check from villain, btw)
<font color="white"> time of post 6 Fold : 3 Call </font>

[prepotency]

Ok here's what I think:

You should fold just because there are too many hands that beat you and you are basically just hoping that he stayed in on a busted flush draw. Here's a thought that first occured to me (that no one has mentioned yet). I thought that he probably has a pocket pair around 88 or 99. This would make sense as a limp UTG I guess. It also makes sense because he is weak on the turn and he thinks you are just trying to steal from him with these small bets and by the river I see him getting enough courage to push at you with his mid PP especially given that the K is a definite scare card (i mean, he probably puts you on a 7 at this point: I would). It's either that or he called with overs and spiked his K. Either way, I don't risk this many chips this early in this situation.
Prognosis: Fold. IMO

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
So, let's go through my thought process. What is villain playing at here?

Well, my initial bet and call means very little, IMO.

My turn bet and call means much more. I think it indicates
1)flush draw
2)fullhouse
3)flush draw with a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (least likely, as I think villain would raise here)

What I don't think the turn call represents
1)AA/KK (these would much more likely raise here)
2)trips (these would much more likely raise here)

River: I checked the river for one reason. I felt that a completed/made hand would bet less, to induce a call (or reraise). And I felt a push indicated a bluff. Any thoughts? (I wholeheartedly expected a check from villain, btw)
<font color="white"> time of post 6 Fold : 3 Call </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me start this off by saying I think you played the hand like crap. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Now that we got that out of the way... (i'm just messing with you here so don't get too mad now)

The whole point of playing the blinds is that you don't want to get in trouble early when you don't have to. You should be able to maximize the value from your hands the times you involuntarily have to play hands from the SB/BB with marginal holdings, as well as minimizing the risk of losing a large portion of your stack here when you didn't need to.

Now to talk about your hand... The villain could have a huge possible range of hands that might include 33-AA, some sort of club flush draw such as JT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], small [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s, or he's just a plain idiot that has Ax or 54/65 type of hand. The river all-in sure does look like either Kx, missed club draw, 77, 99, or the highly like Kx [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Slight possibility of a 3x or 44-66, 9x but he'd have to be an idiot with those PP's and 9x. If this were me in the hand though, I would have tried to keep the pot smaller instead of betting the exact potsize on the flop and turn. BTW, your river check would be really nice if you thought he was drawing the whole way so you could induce a bluff, which is quite possible here but not as likely as it could be in some other situations.

Sorry for ripping into you here but I kind of felt like it was needed because of all these recent specific hand posts. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Should really focus also on bet sizes instead of just whether to check/bet/raise, etc. I am in no way saying I'm a better player than you but all your posted hands are seriously giving me, as probably as well as others, very specific lines on how you play most every situation presented to you.

P.S. You should really be playing this hand like you have a 3, not a 7 as clearly evidenced by your actions in the hand.

Edit: Oh and if you're going to play the hand like you did this way, you might as well check/fold the flop so you don't get yourself into any trouble. It's just not worth it if you're constantly putting yourself into these tough river decisions.

[DonButtons]

check/fold flop...yuck..


check turn

yuck/yuck

[minwoo]

This happens to me all the time. I bet the flop and turn, fairly strong, like you did. Top pair on the flop becomes nasty by the river and I check.

Almost EVERYTIME I check the river, the villan goes ALL-IN. This makes me think - why the hell would the villain go all-in if he actually has a hand? Why wouldn't villain just make a value bet? This can only be a bluff bet...

Because of this kind of thought process, I always made the call. Let me tell you though, about 80% of those calls I made, I was beat - either by a limped overpair, a completed draw, or just a lucky river card. Maybe villain's a genius and knows I'll call everytime with a mediocre hand [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

As of now, I just fold this hand on fifth street unless I have a crystal clear read or a monster stack. And like Degen said, it's too early. SNGs aren't won early in the game.

[curtains]

I like your thought process on this one. Against a lot of players it shuold be a pretty good possibility you are up against no hand. Also it helps that you have a ton of chips, as you aren't crippled if you are wrong.