Chasing flush draws

[Scuba Chuck]

So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
So, I'm in this boat, and I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the other posters covered it, but here's a handy reference as well.

[Scuba Chuck]

Well, I called, and here's what happened.

UTG+2 (allin before me) QQ
MP2 folded

And I hit the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
My plan was to check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with the check-raise is that there's just too much money in the pot compared to your stacks. If MP2 bets the pot and UTG2 calls, you can push, but nobody is going to fold any kind of hand.

If UTG2 had just called and you pushed, there would be about 1700 in the pot and they'd only have to call about 400 more after you push.

Even if UTG2 had folded, MP2 isn't going to fold AT or JJ to your checkraise.

If you had simply pushed instead of checking, now AT/JJ has to make a decision. I'm sure someone is going to say "no one on party will fold those hands". I disagree. I play party, and I would fold them.

You reraised pre-flop. If you push the flop, they have to put you on AA/KK. They might even have to lay down QQ here.

Going back to your original question. I supposed I'd call here and pray that UTG2 has QQ. I've gone back and forth a few times in my mind. AA/KK/TT are strong possibilities. I'd guess MP2 has JJ, maybe TT/99...ugh...maybe I should go back to limit holdem, my head hurts.


edit: He had QQ? Whew. This is easier after you know the opponent's cards.

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
So then, by bball's numbers, I would need to have 12 live outs for this to be a correct call.

My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs. The implied odds suggest I need 9 live outs to make this call. Am I heading in the right direction with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basing your decision on pots odds you are in the right direction. However, I believe Lorinda summed up the answer to this thread very succinctly.

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again, Lorinda's succinct analysis blows all others out of the water. She even had to mix it up a bit as "riverring quads" was not an option. Good work Lori.

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My hunch was to discount 5 of my 15 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hunch would be 11 or 12 discounted outs.

9 hearts, easy
A/K -- based on the betting, I assume that Villians hold 1 or 2, of them. And based on the betting, there's a good chance for a set. Call it 2 outs -- but I'd go with 3 if you push.
Straight draw 1/2 an out (which more or less cancels the discount I have to take against my flush being beaten)

And if we believe Harrington's rule, that there's a 10% chance that the all-in was a bluff (in this case, I think 10% overstates the case, though), maybe a bit for rounding.

So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything but the straight draw is nowhere near 1/2 an out when you need 2 specific cards (QJ- 134:1) as in this case. It's about 1/8 of an out.

[pooh74]

Obviously having 2 others in the pot increases your implied odds but how did you consider the fact that MP2 was left to act after your decision...did you count on him folding or coming in? I guess at a 33 im not too worried about a 2pr here but a set is not out of the realm. (pots sized bet on flop with flush draw could mean this from MP2...maybe not worth considering)

I like getting away cheap here instead of hoping for a 9/47 (probably less)...and, yes, Lorinda got this right given how early this was...you gamble it up here and its sort of win/win depending on how u look at it...

n1

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
So, call it 11 or 12 outs

(Comments on this out analysis?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ken, you pretty much talked through what you should do at the table, which is kind of what I did. I came to the conclusion of 10 to be conservative. My feeling was that if I was going to assume more than 10, then might as well assume my ace or king (or both) are live for sure. Which were my optimistic thoughts.

Oh, and I think the conclusion of $/hr vs. ROI decision is an easy way out of this debate. I do think it's an important concept tho.

What I'm getting at, is figure the probabilities I'm up against a lower pair (like QQ), I'm up against another draw, or a pure bluff (like MP2) vs. the possibility of a set, or a pair of KKs or AAs. All told, I figure to be a coinflip here at worst for a lot of chips.

Huh, I think I just talked my way into $/hr vs ROI. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]