Chasing flush draws

[Benoit]

FOLD? Something tells me you have one guy with a pair of tens trying to protect it and the other is crazy doing a weird all-in move on the flush draw that you have beat. So either you are already ahead with ace high or you have plenty of outs to call with these pot odds, thanks to this third player... With these pot odds you can take the risk.

[ACW]

I think this is an easier call early on than later. If you bust out, you've not wasted any time and you find another game. If you win, you've got a huge lead from the start. That's a mammoth advantage in most STT's. It's likely going to be 3 way so you've got the odds, and if the guy on your left folds your overcard draws are probably around 50% to be clean. It's even possible (though not likely) that you could get heads up and be in front - UTG+2 could just about have HQJ here.

[rickr]

Call ,though I don't care for the way the hand was played to this point. You have the pot odds to call with just the nut flush draw, even if your overcards are not clean. Later I might change my mind, but first hand I'm in. If I'm wrong, fire up another with very little time invested. My gut tells me your behind here, but I'd live with it.

Later,
Rick

[lorinda]

My instinct tells me it's an hourly rate call or an ROI fold.

Lori

[AJo Go All In]

raise more preflop or flat-call.

bet big on the flop.

given where you're at, call it off.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in this boat, and I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba,

I know this isn't perfect math by any means but it gives you a ballpark figure...

With 1 card to come: Number of outs x 2 + 2.
With 2 cards to come: Number of outs x 4 - 4.

With 1 card to come: 14 x 2 + 2 = 30% (actual 30.4%)
With 2 cards to come: 14 x 4 - 4 = 52% (actual 51.2%)

Sorry math wizards, don't flame too much!

[bball904]

Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish.

If you're going to talk about outs and pot odds, you have to make an effort at calculating outs. With this much aggression shown, you will often be up against a set, AT, KT, T9 or other hands that may have redraws to your overcards. I think you can count your overcards for 2-3 outs at best. Read SSH for the best reading on discounting outs.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

This table is your probability to hitting a certain # of outs with 2 or 1 card to come and 47 unseen cards. You can handle the math from there.

Outs 2 1
20 67.5% 43.5%
19 65.0% 41.3%
18 62.4% 39.1%
17 59.8% 37.0%
16 57.0% 34.8%
15 54.1% 32.6%
14 51.2% 30.4%
13 48.1% 28.3%
12 45.0% 26.1%
11 41.7% 23.9%
10 38.4% 21.7%
9 35.0% 19.6%
8 31.5% 17.4%
7 27.8% 15.2%
6 24.1% 13.0%
5 20.4% 10.9%
4 16.5% 8.7%
3 12.5% 6.5%
2 8.4% 4.3%
2 4.3% 2.2%

[hyde]

"Scuba, I'm going to try and be nice here, but this is an example of your posts being way off the mark.


Quote:
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Let's assume for the moment my Ace and King are good.


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That's like hanging out in a club and staring at a hot chick that has scowled at you and turned away with disinterest, then assuming that you could walk over there and get her number. On a rare occasion you may be right, but to assume so is foolish."

I love a good analogy.

on the hand, I would fold, but hate doing it. Smells like a set to me....
results?

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know how to calculate pot odds with two cards to come. Any help?


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, in this case you figure you have 15 outs. That means you have 32 "bad" cards. So on the turn you will get a bad card 32/47=0.68 of the time and on the river you will get a bad card 31/46=0.67.

So you will get 2 bad cards (0.68)*(0.67)=0.45 of the time. So you will get at least 1 good card 1-0.45=55% of the time.

Basically you calculate the probability of getting 2 bad cards and calclulate the inverse.

[swarm]

Hmmmm...

At first glance it looks like an easy call. But there is no way you have 15 clean outs here.

Let's assume worst case one Villan A is in with A10 (takes away your 3 ace outs) and Villan B is all in on something like a set or QJ hearts which takes away 3 of your heart outs (8 does you no good) and all of your K's are dead. In either case you are down to around 6-10 outs with possible redraws to a straight flush, straight (if you only hit an ace) or boat.

That's worse case though. It's early enough and for enough chips I can certainly see the reasoning for calling and gambeling it up.

This is a GUT call or FOLD.