JJ on a Q high flop

[PrayingMantis]

22$ 2-tables SNG, we're last 7. Blinds 75/150, I'm 5th w/2630.

UTG folds, and I raise to 450 with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif, hoping to take the pot. Folded to CO (4423) who calls. He's very loose, limps a lot, and sometimes being aggressive when it's not really needed.

1st question: should I've bet bigger, or limp here? JJ is a trouble hand with loose callers.

Anyway, All others fold.

Flop: T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Usualy if A or K fall, I will check fold with JJ here, as my stack is not big enough to take chances. But Q isn't so bad. The problem is my stack is 2180, and pot is 1125. A pot bet is 50% my stack, so pushing is better, but I'm not sure it's the right move here. On the other hand, a smaller bet will be, just, hmmm, too small, and he might call with a wide range of hands that can improve on the turn, like straight draws. On the other-other hand, I don't like checking here either, and exposing myself to some bluff.

So what's your move?

[ThaSaltCracka]

bet 1k represent an over pair.
if he is loose, I would think he would play a weak A or K over a weak Q.
I like the prelop raise because I hate JJ, 450 doesn't get you in tooooo much trouble.

[NotMitch]

I would likely bet T700, I think a push will only get called if you are beat. If you get reaised here you are in a tough spot but if you decide to fold you still have have 10x BB which isn't great but is playable.

[DrPhysic]

PM,
I would have gone 4bb preflop. not afraid of 5bb. I don't like being called with JJ or QQ. Gimme the blinds and let it be over.

I would bet 1/3 of stack as NotMitch indicated. Any more, you might as well be allin. If you get a hard raise, I think you have to lay it down.

Doc /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ThaSaltCracka]

I wouldn't under bet the pot. If he has any pair here he is going to call, I would think. Betting atleast the pot shows your not scared of the Q. Pushing here shows you are afraid of the Q. I would want to take this pot down right now if I can. Think of what hands he would call the preflop raise with and not reraise with. He would probably call with any pair below J, maybe JT, maybe KQ. He would reraise I would think with AA-QQ, AK, maybe AQ. I would bet the pot.

[NotMitch]

If you bet the pot what is your plan for the rest of the hand if:

A) You get raised all in?
B) Opponent calls and the turn is a blank?
C) Oppenent calls and turn is an A or K?

[esbesb]

Can't say I'm any expert, but why not check to him and feel him out from the size of his bet? If he bets the pot, you lay it down. If he bets less than the pot (e.g., half) raise him substantially.

Also, why does a queen scare you any less than an A or K? Any one of the three beats you.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
A) You get raised all in?


[/ QUOTE ]
fold, but I would rather make him make a tough decision first. his opp. is more than likely to fold to that bet if he has, IMO, a Q or a lower pair.

[ QUOTE ]
B) Opponent calls and the turn is a blank?
C) Oppenent calls and turn is an A or K?


[/ QUOTE ]
Push all in on both.

[PrayingMantis]

esbesb,

Checking here is no good, because I'm the original raiser in this pot, and if I check I represent weakness, that can make him bet big against me with a worse hand, like unimproved Ax, and I wont be in a situation to call. And if I do tend to call a bet, I better bet to begin with.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, why does a queen scare you any less than an A or K? Any one of the three beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you are right of course, but the important thing is to consider what range of hands your opponent will call a raise PF with. And in that range (generally speaking) for any opponent, no matter how loose or tight, you'll find more hands with A, than hands with K, than hands with Q and so on. This is *very* important to understand, even without having a concrete read on a player. That's why, with a Q high flop, I'm less scared of the Q (when I hold JJ), than I'm scared of the K, for example, on a K high flop here, while Q *or* K both beat me regardless.

PrayingMantis

[esbesb]

Praying Mantis:

I really appreciate the information contained in the second half of your reply. This is obvious, now that I think about it, but I had never really focused on it before. You are right -- he is more likely to have an A or a K than a Q because he had to have something to call that preflop raise with and it is more likely to be a higher card. This is a good point that I had not seen discused before.

I am still not sure I agree that checking is no good. You are looking at a host of options, none of which are ideal. If he has a Q you are screwed. But, he may also have a pocket pair lower than JJ, and may have hands as varied as AJ, KJ or lots of other hands since you describe him as a loose player.

The problem is, if you bet the pot and he has a Q, you have a big problem and just lost a ton of chips. Betting less than the pot is another possibility, but, frankly, I think this communicates almost as much weakness as checking because now he knows that not only do you probably not have a Queen, but that you are AFRAID of him. Checking, to me, at least puts the possibility of a check-raise in his mind. You may, after all, have KK or AA. It is also a big pot, so even though he may be tempted to bluff you with AK, AJ, Ax, etc., he has to risk a lot of chips to do that (though admittedly only 1/4 his stack). In my (limited) experience, a lot of people in his situation (assuming he doesn't have a Queen) won't put down 1K chips on a bluff. You can bet he's trying to steal the pot if he bets, say 1/2 the pot or less.

On the other hand, he's a loose player and may be just the type to bet the pot without a Queen. But . . . unless you want to risk a lot of money, I am just suggesting that a check is not any worse of an option than the others.

[NotMitch]

The problem I have with this is when you get called on the flop I think you are behind almost everytime. What can he call with preflop and call a pot sized bet on that flop from a preflop raiser with that doesnt beat JJ? AK if he isnt real good maybe.

So I think once the flop bet doesn't make him go away you need to shut it down. That is why I like the slight underbet, I think any hand that folds for T1100 is going to fold for T700 and the chips you save are important to your stack if you have to fold.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I am still not sure I agree that checking is no good. You are looking at a host of options, none of which are ideal. If he has a Q you are screwed. But, he may also have a pocket pair lower than JJ, and may have hands as varied as AJ, KJ or lots of other hands since you describe him as a loose player.

The problem is, if you bet the pot and he has a Q, you have a big problem and just lost a ton of chips. Betting less than the pot is another possibility, but, frankly, I think this communicates almost as much weakness as checking because now he knows that not only do you probably not have a Queen, but that you are AFRAID of him. Checking, to me, at least puts the possibility of a check-raise in his mind. You may, after all, have KK or AA. It is also a big pot, so even though he may be tempted to bluff you with AK, AJ, Ax, etc., he has to risk a lot of chips to do that (though admittedly only 1/4 his stack). In my (limited) experience, a lot of people in his situation (assuming he doesn't have a Queen) won't put down 1K chips on a bluff. You can bet he's trying to steal the pot if he bets, say 1/2 the pot or less.

On the other hand, he's a loose player and may be just the type to bet the pot without a Queen. But . . . unless you want to risk a lot of money, I am just suggesting that a check is not any worse of an option than the others

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have some good points here, especially regarding the fact that a smaller-than-pot bet will also represent weakness, in a similar way to a check, and that could also induce a re-raise bluff. However, checking will NEVER win the pot right there, and that's a thing that can often happen if you bet no matter how much, even if only 2/3 the pot, sometimes (against very weak opponents) much less. You must not pass the option to win this pot right there, that's why betting here is very necessary. Of course you're in problem if reraised or get called, but it's probably worth it.

PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

Thanks for the replies, you made some good points I think.

I bet 600. Problem was he called, and then I felt maybe it was a little too small, and I wasn't sure where I'm standing. He could've called it with a straight draw, weak Q, a T (maybe AT, KT), or he could be slowplaying a set or QT.

Turn: 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I checked, he checked. If he had J9 he hit his straight. That's all I could figured.

Flop: 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

I didn't think there's enough chance for a 2 in his hand, and I tended to think he would have re-raised me on the flop with a Q. And on this point I thought he could call another smallish bet with a pocket-pair or Tx, like he did, maybe, on the flop.

So I decided to go for a value bet of 600, and immidiately regreted it when he re-raised me all-in.

I folded, and he showed KK. Yes, a little strange. Tricky...

I think checking the river was much better than betting, especially with my small stack. Although I'm quite sure he was enough of a loose-caller to call my bet there with hands I beat, IMO. Not here, anyway...

Any more thoughts?

PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

NotMitch, let me first start of by saying you have good points and the style of play you are illustrating works fine as well, I am not criticizing your advice.

Lets first start by thinking what hands his opponent will simply just call the preflop raise( unless this player likes to slowplay ). So he is likely to call a 3xBB raise with I am going to say any pocket pair 22-JJ, JT, KQ, AQ, AJ, ATs, and maybe Axs.

Now he is most likely to raise with AA, KK, QQ, AK, and maybe even JJ or TT. Since he didn't raise I wouldn't put him on these hands( unless he likes to slowplay ), so they only hands I think he needs to worry about are KQ and AQ.

Now if I was PM, I would be trying to get his opponent to fold his Q if he has one. I think the pot sized bet represents a over pair, but then again, most of us on here know what we are doing so we would probably think the same thing, however who knows with some people online.

For me this is a hand and a pot he can't give away. I would be trying to make his opponent fold the better hand here, but thats just me.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I think your opponent played like an idiot

[PrayingMantis]

Cracka,

I understand the logic in your reasoning, however...

[ QUOTE ]
Now if I was PM, I would be trying to get his opponent to fold his Q if he has one. I think the pot sized bet represents a over pair, but then again, most of us on here know what we are doing so we would probably think the same thing, however who knows with some people online.

For me this is a hand and a pot he can't give away. I would be trying to make his opponent fold the better hand here, but thats just me.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am positively sure he *won't* fold a Q here, no matter what, and that's why I think betting the pot (which is 50% my stack) does not worth it.

The problem was he didn't reraise me PF or on the flop with his KK... and I was mistaken to try and "value bet" on the river, and that made me lose 600 more... Not a good move, as I stated.

PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your opponent played like an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I was lucky enough, though, that the flop wasn't some rags: if it was, I would have played this hand much more aggressively, and would have probably busted...

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
I am positively sure he *won't* fold a Q here, no matter what

[/ QUOTE ]
aha, if you had said this at the start I would have said check fold the entire way.

[ThaSaltCracka]

your opponent probably would have cried the entire time to if you had flopped a set and his Kings lost, saying " I hate KK(or AA), cuz they always get sucked out."

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
aha, if you had said this at the start I would have said check fold the entire way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is the right move, even if he won't fold a Q. I'm betting the flop to (try and) make him fold many hands that are behind me *now* but can easily improve to be the best later, like straight draws, lower pocket pair, or Tx (or to make him do the mistake of calling with them). Checking will not do that. A reasonable player will re-raise me on the flop with Qx (certainly with AQ, KQ) so I will be able, knowing pretty good I'm behind, to lay my JJ down.

That's at least how I see it.

PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

your damned if you do and your damned if you don't /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[NotMitch]

Salt,

I think we both agree that this is a lousy spot to be in and there are certainly pros and cons to both our lines of thinking here.

As PM pointed out in the thread no way does an average oppenent fold a Q here, and I think that is the main difference in what we are assuming. I'm also very hard pressed to put the CO on a hand, given PM's description of the CO I think it could be almost anything.

The only thing I disagree with in this reply is that a pot sized bet represents an overpair. Most of the time a pot sized bet from me means on the flop I most likely have 2 cards and that is about all. 95% of my flop bets are pot sized and I can assure you its not always an overpair.

[curmudgeon]

He slowplayed his KK for maximum value.
Sure he took some chances, but he got more chips! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
He slowplayed his KK for maximum value.
Sure he took some chances, but he got more chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that with my bad bet on the river, he made some more chips here.

However, if that's the way he'll usually play KK (and I don't have a reason to believe he was an observant player, who tried to maximize his profits against *my* specific play), he's very far from making "more chips" with this hand. Actualy, he's probably losing chips with it.

And I assure you, after watching him keep playing in this SNG - he's not the type of player who knows what he's doing. So I wouldn't be so fast to compliment him (and I don't have a problem doing it when I feel someone deserves it).

PrayingMantis