JJ on a Q high flop

[PrayingMantis]

22$ 2-tables SNG, we're last 7. Blinds 75/150, I'm 5th w/2630.

UTG folds, and I raise to 450 with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], hoping to take the pot. Folded to CO (4423) who calls. He's very loose, limps a lot, and sometimes being aggressive when it's not really needed.

1st question: should I've bet bigger, or limp here? JJ is a trouble hand with loose callers.

Anyway, All others fold.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Usualy if A or K fall, I will check fold with JJ here, as my stack is not big enough to take chances. But Q isn't so bad. The problem is my stack is 2180, and pot is 1125. A pot bet is 50% my stack, so pushing is better, but I'm not sure it's the right move here. On the other hand, a smaller bet will be, just, hmmm, too small, and he might call with a wide range of hands that can improve on the turn, like straight draws. On the other-other hand, I don't like checking here either, and exposing myself to some bluff.

So what's your move?

[ThaSaltCracka]

bet 1k represent an over pair.
if he is loose, I would think he would play a weak A or K over a weak Q.
I like the prelop raise because I hate JJ, 450 doesn't get you in tooooo much trouble.

[NotMitch]

I would likely bet T700, I think a push will only get called if you are beat. If you get reaised here you are in a tough spot but if you decide to fold you still have have 10x BB which isn't great but is playable.

[DrPhysic]

PM,
I would have gone 4bb preflop. not afraid of 5bb. I don't like being called with JJ or QQ. Gimme the blinds and let it be over.

I would bet 1/3 of stack as NotMitch indicated. Any more, you might as well be allin. If you get a hard raise, I think you have to lay it down.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ThaSaltCracka]

I wouldn't under bet the pot. If he has any pair here he is going to call, I would think. Betting atleast the pot shows your not scared of the Q. Pushing here shows you are afraid of the Q. I would want to take this pot down right now if I can. Think of what hands he would call the preflop raise with and not reraise with. He would probably call with any pair below J, maybe JT, maybe KQ. He would reraise I would think with AA-QQ, AK, maybe AQ. I would bet the pot.

[NotMitch]

If you bet the pot what is your plan for the rest of the hand if:

A) You get raised all in?
B) Opponent calls and the turn is a blank?
C) Oppenent calls and turn is an A or K?

[esbesb]

Can't say I'm any expert, but why not check to him and feel him out from the size of his bet? If he bets the pot, you lay it down. If he bets less than the pot (e.g., half) raise him substantially.

Also, why does a queen scare you any less than an A or K? Any one of the three beats you.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
A) You get raised all in?


[/ QUOTE ]
fold, but I would rather make him make a tough decision first. his opp. is more than likely to fold to that bet if he has, IMO, a Q or a lower pair.

[ QUOTE ]
B) Opponent calls and the turn is a blank?
C) Oppenent calls and turn is an A or K?


[/ QUOTE ]
Push all in on both.

[PrayingMantis]

esbesb,

Checking here is no good, because I'm the original raiser in this pot, and if I check I represent weakness, that can make him bet big against me with a worse hand, like unimproved Ax, and I wont be in a situation to call. And if I do tend to call a bet, I better bet to begin with.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, why does a queen scare you any less than an A or K? Any one of the three beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically you are right of course, but the important thing is to consider what range of hands your opponent will call a raise PF with. And in that range (generally speaking) for any opponent, no matter how loose or tight, you'll find more hands with A, than hands with K, than hands with Q and so on. This is *very* important to understand, even without having a concrete read on a player. That's why, with a Q high flop, I'm less scared of the Q (when I hold JJ), than I'm scared of the K, for example, on a K high flop here, while Q *or* K both beat me regardless.

PrayingMantis

[esbesb]

Praying Mantis:

I really appreciate the information contained in the second half of your reply. This is obvious, now that I think about it, but I had never really focused on it before. You are right -- he is more likely to have an A or a K than a Q because he had to have something to call that preflop raise with and it is more likely to be a higher card. This is a good point that I had not seen discused before.

I am still not sure I agree that checking is no good. You are looking at a host of options, none of which are ideal. If he has a Q you are screwed. But, he may also have a pocket pair lower than JJ, and may have hands as varied as AJ, KJ or lots of other hands since you describe him as a loose player.

The problem is, if you bet the pot and he has a Q, you have a big problem and just lost a ton of chips. Betting less than the pot is another possibility, but, frankly, I think this communicates almost as much weakness as checking because now he knows that not only do you probably not have a Queen, but that you are AFRAID of him. Checking, to me, at least puts the possibility of a check-raise in his mind. You may, after all, have KK or AA. It is also a big pot, so even though he may be tempted to bluff you with AK, AJ, Ax, etc., he has to risk a lot of chips to do that (though admittedly only 1/4 his stack). In my (limited) experience, a lot of people in his situation (assuming he doesn't have a Queen) won't put down 1K chips on a bluff. You can bet he's trying to steal the pot if he bets, say 1/2 the pot or less.

On the other hand, he's a loose player and may be just the type to bet the pot without a Queen. But . . . unless you want to risk a lot of money, I am just suggesting that a check is not any worse of an option than the others.