Bet the flop with middle pair?

[M.B.E.]

Twenty minutes into a NLHE SNG on Stars we are eight-handed with blinds 15/30. My stack is only 970 (average is 1688). Three people limp, SB completes, and I get a free play in the big blind with 82o. Flop comes J-8-4 with two hearts. The pot is 150. SB checks and I bet out 90.

I think this is a good play, but I'm not sure. I'd be interested in comments on (a) whether I should just checkfold this trash, (b) whether the amount of my bet was optimal, and (c) whether it made much difference that I actually flopped a pair (in other words, should I have made the same play if my cards were 72 instead of 82).

[DougBrennan]

If I were going to bet this, and that's not a given, I think I'd go with a pot-sized bet.

And if you're called, you lose, without hitting something else.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya M.B.E.,

I dunno. This isn't a bet I'd usually make. If I were going to go on with this hand at all -- and I doubt I would if anyone bet behind me -- I'd be playing it as a bluff-catcher, that is, check-calling if the bets were small and the board didn't get any scarier. With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

Cris

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing. Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

With 4 in, I just get out of the way here. With 3 or 2, I might make a bigger bet than you proposed.

eastbay

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a jack-high flop, so the only hands anyone could have containing overcards are AK, AQ, and KQ. If someone had one of those, they would likely have raised preflop. And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.

(If instead of J-8-4 the flop was something like 9-8-4 I'm not going to bet my 82 because now it is likely that my opponents have overcards, and may call with them.)

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, my EV calculations assume that if called on the flop I fold to any bet on the turn or river. That may not maximize my EV, but it does give positive EV if my assumptions are correct which I believe they are.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Easy check-fold on the flop. The most dangerous situations in a tourney come when you get a free play in the BB with a hands you'd normally fold and then you get a piece of the flop.

You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[La Brujita]

I don't think it is a bad play at all. It is a play I make sometimes to mix up my game. The reason that it is pretty good is that it is a solid example of a semi bluff where you are able to fold to a reraise but have a decent chance of winning the pot. Whether it is a winning play in the long run (in similar circumstances) depends on many factors including number of players in the pot, how much of calling stations the players are, deepness of money etc.

To answer your subquestions:

(a) I would checkfold most of the time but would make your play a small percentage of my time to vary my game and if the conditions were right to try and take the pot.

(b) When I am deciding to make a bet here what I am trying to do is make as small a bet as possible without making obvious I am making as small a bet as possible. I think a bet of 100-120 is optimal imo. 90 is a pretty solid sized bet. I want to bet less than the pot to conserve my chips and because a pot sized bet is not necessary to convey you have a J or flush draw and overcards (or whatever hand you think your bet might represent). My thought is 100 is a good bet for optics reasons, some people's thought process would allow calling a 90 bet but not 100 due to three figures.

(c) depending on game type, you should occasionally make the same bet with 7-2 but it is an incredibly better play with second pair. The reason is that in HE a semi bluff is much better than a naked bluff because a flat call and you have a chance to improve on fourth street. You might get a huge amount of disguise to bet for value if a 2x comes out.

This is why I thought Howard Lederer's play (he is the player I respect most) with 6-3 was somewhat weak. He feld he needed to bluff at some point but there was plenty of time for a semi bluff rather than a full bluff.

I think you posted a very interesting hand fwiw.

Regards

[Stagemusic]

This is a great hand to post as we all are faced with the same situation in virtually every tournament. Thanks for posting it.

I actually like your play here. Sure it's a feeler bet and so what? You are getting +EV from making it and you are not going to get married to the hand for a call. If you are raised you dump the hand and move on with little damage done. IMO you are changing up by using a play that would work well in Limit rather than NL but this isn't the worst call that you will make all day I'm sure.

I'm reasonably sure that you didn't get any raises from the limpers and got to see the turn card. Am I right? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%. I don't understand your argument for why that is too high. J-8-4 is not "a flop full of draws". Granted there is a possible flush draw, but only one openended straight draw. There are seven possible gutshot draws, but only three of the seven are remotely playable (QT, 76, and 65). Plus, why would someone call my flop bet with a weak draw?

In the hand in question, my four opponents did all fold to my flop bet.

[TheGrifter]

You didn't mention what the buy in was for this SnG so that may completely change my opinion, but at the levels I've been playing lately (10+1) I use a few conditions to determine whether it is wise to semi-bluff.

- How many people are in the hand? I would prefer there to be no more than 2.

- Does the board contain potential draws? At the limits I play people will call even a pot sized bet with a flush or straight draw, and generally there will be multiple callers which makes it correct for them to do so.

- Are my opponents capable of folding? I know I pick up very few pots on a board like that by betting 2/3 of the pot, especially when my bet is only 5% of the average stack.

- If I am beat can I improve to the best hand? You may be able to, but there are also some dangerous cards out there like if you make two pair or a set on the turn but the card is a third heart.

If I had A8 in your position I would make this play in a second, not only because it would make a much more powerful two pair but also because the ace is likely to give someone else top pair. If I am raised by someone (representing the Jack) I probably fold. Again, these assumptions are probably specific to very low buy in no fold'em SnG's.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%

With 2 opponents, I'd agree. When I said full of draws I was thinking that since your bet represents a J, any opponent with a bigger stack with a heart overcard likely has a backdoor or gutshot draw to go with it. That's enough to take one off and see what develops. Also 2 overcards will call your bet a significant portion of the time.

You got 4 people to fold. You had the best hand this time, but in the long run, I think this play costs you too much.

I've lost too much on hands like this.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you consider both calling and raising, I think that's a poor assumption. A hell of a lot of people can't get away from AK or AQ here without making a play for the pot.

eastbay

[allenciox]

Let's examine the issue probabilistically. Giving you the biggest benefit of the doubt that they hold any hand with equal frequency except the very best hands which they would have raised on --- out of the 1081 - 37 =1044 (assuming not JJ-AA or AK since no raise pre-flop) hands that any of your opponents can hold, any opponent can have any of the following hands, with which they probably at least call your bet:

Hand #poss
Jx 138
8x 93
AQ 16
KQ 16
QT 16
Q9 16
76 7 (assuming at least one heart)
65 7 (assuming at least one heart)
TT 6
99 6
44 3
hh 35 (i.e. two hearts that are not any of the above)
----------
tot 359

The odds that any one opponent has one of these hands is 359/1044 = 34.3%

The probability that none of your four opponents has these hands (assuming independence) is approximately 18.5% --- so your estimate of 60% is way off it is more like 81.5%.

Even if you guess that they are tighter and that they won't call you with the QT or Q9 or overcards unless they have at least one heart, then the probability that none will have a hand worth a call is only 22.7%.

This is a very bad play in no-limit.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I tried to read some of the other posts but I was quickly bored. IMO, I would try make maybe 2-3 plays like this a tournament. Maybe you steal blinds, maybe you get called, it doesn't matter, you change up your table image either way, which is good. I would say though if you got a quick call, to not put anymore money into the pot, if someone calls after some time, a turn bet will probably give you the hand. I like the play!

[M.B.E.]

Allenciox, you say the number of combinations for Jx is 138. By my calculations it's only 132. (There are 47 unseen cards of which 3 are jacks and 44 are non-jacks. 3x44=132. Even if you include JJ here, which you said you wouldn't, the total is less than 138.)

Similarly you give 93 combinations for 8x; by my count it's only 85 (42 x 2 + 1). This includes pocket eights but excludes J8 since that was already counted.

However, making those corrections to your analysis does not change your final result very much; it yields a 79.9% probability that none of my opponents has these hands (not 81.5%).

My actual point of disagreement with your analysis is your assumption of how loose my opponents are. In my experience very few opponents would call my bet holding 87 (for example) on the J-8-4 flop. Some players would call or raise holding A8, but I think even with that holding the majority would fold. Also I don't expect to be called by TT, 99, AQ, KQ, QT, Q9, 76, or 65 (other than suited in hearts). As for other heart draws, some players would call, others would not. It also depends on their position relative to the bettor (me). If the player on my left has a heart draw he's more likely to call with it than any of the other players since it would close the betting.

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You didn't mention what the buy in was for this SnG so that may completely change my opinion, but at the levels I've been playing lately (10+1) I use a few conditions to determine whether it is wise to semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
This hand was from a two-table $100+9 SNG.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
- If I am beat can I improve to the best hand? You may be able to, but there are also some dangerous cards out there like if you make two pair or a set on the turn but the card is a third heart.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that this is one factor to consider but not of highest importance. For one thing, if someone has me beat with a jack they're likely to raise so I won't be around to see whether I improve on the turn. In the actual hand I held the deuce of hearts so I had three "clean" outs to two-pair, but I had only one "clean" out to trips.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
If I had A8 in your position I would make this play in a second, not only because it would make a much more powerful two pair but also because the ace is likely to give someone else top pair. If I am raised by someone (representing the Jack) I probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[M.B.E.]

Thanks, La Brujita. Good points. I think you're right that betting 100 is better than 90 for the psychological effect.

[M.B.E.]

The other question arising from this problem is whether I should have raised preflop. In TPFAP Sklansky gives an example of raising in the big blind with J5o after several limpers. He says that everyone will fold often enough to give you positive EV. I rarely make this move -- does anyone here?