Bet the flop with middle pair?

[M.B.E.]

Twenty minutes into a NLHE SNG on Stars we are eight-handed with blinds 15/30. My stack is only 970 (average is 1688). Three people limp, SB completes, and I get a free play in the big blind with 82o. Flop comes J-8-4 with two hearts. The pot is 150. SB checks and I bet out 90.

I think this is a good play, but I'm not sure. I'd be interested in comments on (a) whether I should just checkfold this trash, (b) whether the amount of my bet was optimal, and (c) whether it made much difference that I actually flopped a pair (in other words, should I have made the same play if my cards were 72 instead of 82).

[DougBrennan]

If I were going to bet this, and that's not a given, I think I'd go with a pot-sized bet.

And if you're called, you lose, without hitting something else.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya M.B.E.,

I dunno. This isn't a bet I'd usually make. If I were going to go on with this hand at all -- and I doubt I would if anyone bet behind me -- I'd be playing it as a bluff-catcher, that is, check-calling if the bets were small and the board didn't get any scarier. With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

Cris

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing. Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

With 4 in, I just get out of the way here. With 3 or 2, I might make a bigger bet than you proposed.

eastbay

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a jack-high flop, so the only hands anyone could have containing overcards are AK, AQ, and KQ. If someone had one of those, they would likely have raised preflop. And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.

(If instead of J-8-4 the flop was something like 9-8-4 I'm not going to bet my 82 because now it is likely that my opponents have overcards, and may call with them.)

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, my EV calculations assume that if called on the flop I fold to any bet on the turn or river. That may not maximize my EV, but it does give positive EV if my assumptions are correct which I believe they are.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Easy check-fold on the flop. The most dangerous situations in a tourney come when you get a free play in the BB with a hands you'd normally fold and then you get a piece of the flop.

You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[La Brujita]

I don't think it is a bad play at all. It is a play I make sometimes to mix up my game. The reason that it is pretty good is that it is a solid example of a semi bluff where you are able to fold to a reraise but have a decent chance of winning the pot. Whether it is a winning play in the long run (in similar circumstances) depends on many factors including number of players in the pot, how much of calling stations the players are, deepness of money etc.

To answer your subquestions:

(a) I would checkfold most of the time but would make your play a small percentage of my time to vary my game and if the conditions were right to try and take the pot.

(b) When I am deciding to make a bet here what I am trying to do is make as small a bet as possible without making obvious I am making as small a bet as possible. I think a bet of 100-120 is optimal imo. 90 is a pretty solid sized bet. I want to bet less than the pot to conserve my chips and because a pot sized bet is not necessary to convey you have a J or flush draw and overcards (or whatever hand you think your bet might represent). My thought is 100 is a good bet for optics reasons, some people's thought process would allow calling a 90 bet but not 100 due to three figures.

(c) depending on game type, you should occasionally make the same bet with 7-2 but it is an incredibly better play with second pair. The reason is that in HE a semi bluff is much better than a naked bluff because a flat call and you have a chance to improve on fourth street. You might get a huge amount of disguise to bet for value if a 2x comes out.

This is why I thought Howard Lederer's play (he is the player I respect most) with 6-3 was somewhat weak. He feld he needed to bluff at some point but there was plenty of time for a semi bluff rather than a full bluff.

I think you posted a very interesting hand fwiw.

Regards

[Stagemusic]

This is a great hand to post as we all are faced with the same situation in virtually every tournament. Thanks for posting it.

I actually like your play here. Sure it's a feeler bet and so what? You are getting +EV from making it and you are not going to get married to the hand for a call. If you are raised you dump the hand and move on with little damage done. IMO you are changing up by using a play that would work well in Limit rather than NL but this isn't the worst call that you will make all day I'm sure.

I'm reasonably sure that you didn't get any raises from the limpers and got to see the turn card. Am I right? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%. I don't understand your argument for why that is too high. J-8-4 is not "a flop full of draws". Granted there is a possible flush draw, but only one openended straight draw. There are seven possible gutshot draws, but only three of the seven are remotely playable (QT, 76, and 65). Plus, why would someone call my flop bet with a weak draw?

In the hand in question, my four opponents did all fold to my flop bet.