Another set story

[PrayingMantis]

Hi all,

I had 3 interesting hands at the same SNG. I'm not really sure if and how to post all of them, so I'm just going to post 1st hand first, and see how it developes.

OK. It's a 10+1 2 tables, I'm 1st stack with T3310 after busting some caller with my obvious set of kings. Blinds are 25/50, 7 players at my table.

Now I'm on the button with 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. All fold to CO, T1200, who I've seen calling too much, which is not untypical of the whole table, and also slow-playing, not very smartly IMO, a set.

He raises to 200. I don't see this as a steal-raise with garbage, I think he has AQ-AT, KQ, something along these lines. I don't know exactly why, but I don't think he has a big pair. I decide to call and see what comes. I have more than enough chips.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

He bets 50. I don't think he slowplays a set here. I raise to 300 (?). He thinks for a while and calls.

Turn: 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hmmmmmm. Why not my other out? /images/graemlins/mad.gif. Before I make my decision regarding how good or bad the turn is, he pushes for T710.

Your move?


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

Of course I am kidding Mantis.

I think you have to put him on some high suited cards. He may have the diamonds, or it could be a differant suit, I think your decision would be based more of the player then anything. From what you said, he calls a lot would lead me to think he likes high cards, suited card, and probably high connected cards.

I think he has the flush, time to walk away

[ohkanada]

Call.

If he has flush, so be it. A strange bet for a flush draw on the flop.

Ken Poklitar

[gunboat]

[ QUOTE ]
A strange bet for a flush draw on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so strange. I often see a draw make a small bet like this in an attempt to get a cheap turn card.

However, I would call for a different reason. If the gentleman likes to slow play strong hands, I doubt he would bet into you with a made flush, especially after you raised the flop. I would put him on a semi bluff with the Ad. I have also seen small bets with just overcards for the same reason as above.

[ThaSaltCracka]

if he has suited overcards something like AQs, he could be checking where he is at with the flop bet. I don't see why it is a strange bet, I think a lot of people bet their four flush's, also take into consideration that if he has over cards, he may think he will take the pot right there with his bet.
I think the fact he called Mantis' raise on the flop would lead me to believe he was on a flush draw.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]

However, I would call for a different reason. If the gentleman likes to slow play strong hands, I doubt he would bet into you with a made flush, especially after you raised the flop. I would put him on a semi bluff with the Ad. I have also seen small bets with just overcards for the same reason as above.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good point, but there is also enough in the pot for him to possibly want to take it right there

[ohkanada]

The pot is 475 after pre-flop action. Betting 50 into 475 does seem strange to me. I can't imagine any scenario where I would bet 50 into a 475 pot after I raised PF.

How many hands that you call 200 cold will you fold for 50? Sure there may be a few but not many.

An overpair with 1 of the suit is quite possible as is something like AK with 1 of the suit.

Ken Poklitar

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine any scenario where I would bet 50 into a 475 pot after I raised PF.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're right of course, and I wouldn't do this either, but it is increasingly common among the lower stakes players to make a tiny bet from up front on the flop when drawing. They hope that you will forget to raise them so they get a cheap turn card. It's one of the biggest online tells - for some players. Who knows if this player is one of them?

Guy.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You're ahead here often enough to call with 10 outs to improve *if* you're behind.

[PrayingMantis]

I couldn't see why he pushes now if he has the (probably nut) flush, plus I had my own outs if I'm behind... so I called.

He shows A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

I don't improve and I'm down to T2100. Still, above avarage.
I think I made the right call, as most of you agree too. And as the game goes on, this guy looks more and more like quite a strange player, so (in retrospect) I don't think he tried to "double-bluff" me with his flush (is there a term for this kind of a bet, when you want your opponent to think you're bluffing when you have the nuts?). I think he simply hit his diamond, so he pushed in (it's in contrast with a SP he did earlier, but that's poker).

Now, see if you can work through another one... /images/graemlins/smile.gif


2nd hand from the same SNG. Starring: The same player!


We're down to 7 at the table, (13 overall), blinds 50/100. I'm 3rd here with T2050, holding A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the SB.

UTG folds, UTG+1 (T3020, loose calling station) limps, folded to button (T1620, our friend from the previous hand, who keeps losing and winning big, with some crazy moves) who limps. I raise to 400. BB (desperate, T270 after posting) calls and he's all-in. UTG+1 folds, our friend the Button calls.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

ugh.

Now, what's your move? And more important - what will you try to achieve here?


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

well this is not a good flop for you, now fortunately you are only playing this against one person, basically, I think I would try to isolate yourself against the all in and hope he doesn't have a king. The calling station could have anything, but I would try to make a large enough bet that he would hopefully fold, of course if he has the king he will probably call or raise.

[ThaSaltCracka]

after reading some of the other posts I have a simple question. If you flop a set and there is a flush draw out there, how many outs would you need or want, to call someone elses reraise?

[unfrgvn]

Hmm, hopefully I don't embarass myself with my answer, but I would check. Anytime I'm in a pot with one all in player and one other player, I check it down unless I'm certain I have the best hand, since my goal is to eliminate the all in player. So if you check, and he bets, I have to assume he has the K. If he checks behind you, great, hopefully another A comes off and you have top full house. Otherwise I may well check it all the way.
Not everyone has this same philosphy. I was in this situation with some checks and had paired 7's on the turn(q 7o). The other live player went all in. I said great and folded. Well, he had nothing and the all in took the pot with his pocket 5's. I just didn't understand that bet, he got me out of a pot that he had little chance of winning and let the all in player triple up. I took great satisfaction in taking most of us checks a couple of hands later.

Doug

[ThaSaltCracka]

this situation is a little different though, Mantis actually has a hand, I agree with your theory of checking all the way down with one player all-in, I sometimes hope when myself and another player check on the flop, that we will check the whole way, however on the turn for some reason the other player always bets.

Anyways, Mantis should really only be worrying about the other player, the all in is done, there are a lot of hands he could have pushed with, maybe a medium pair, if I was Mantis, the flop would worry me, but I would still try to isolate the hand.

[Prickly Pete]

It sounds like you're worried about the situation where you bet with the 3rd best hand, the best hand folds and the 2nd best hand (the all-in) wins the pot and stays alive. This situation is very unlikely here. On the flop, I'd say that's next to impossible since the other player isn't going to fold for any bet if he has a hand that currently beats your AA.

You want to him to fold hands like 88 (or pay you off while chasing a 2-outer).

Finally, with 13 left, eliminating players should only be a minor concern - accumulating chips a major concern.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If there isn't a made flush, outs are irrelevant. You're ahead. If you're sure he has a made flush, you're just under a 2-1 dog to improve, so if you're getting 5-2 or more on the call, you make the call.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

There's 910 in the main pot and 260 in the side pot. The main pot's irrelevant to what you do here. Bet 200 and see how your nemesis reacts. If he raises big, I'd tend to believe him.

[unfrgvn]

I think I still disagree. If you make any kind of bet at all, what hands can he call or raise you with? K x, K 5, or 55, maybe qq's or jj's. If he reraises you, which he may do if he has qq's or jj's,are you going to fold? I know if you bet he may fold, but I don't see where a free card hurts you too much. There are no obvious str8 or flush draws, though I suppose he could pick one up on the turn. If you check and he goes all in, I think you have to give him credit for the king. He knows he is going to have to show his hand at the end so I don't see him making a big bluff.
I do see your point, but I still think I would check and see where he thinks he is.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

My focus here would be on winning the side pot. At this point I have no control over whether or not I win the main pot. I'm going to have to show down against the BB for that. What I don't want to do is give the guy with a live hand any chance to draw out on me to win the side pot. Since the side pot's small, you don't have to bet too big to take it down, and from the other hand, I see this opponent as being pretty direct if he has a K.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I agree with your theory of checking all the way down with one player all-in

Not when you likely have the best hand *and* there's already a side pot.

[PrayingMantis]

I think I'm worried about the live player. As you say, when it's 13 players still in, my main interest is in gaining chips, and not asking myself how to get rid of players.
So, my worry is the button, who might easily have a K here. This guy might have called my raise with K8s even, so the range of K's is fairly big.

Thing is: if I'm pushing, I will probably be called only by K, while if we check it down - I might win the whole current pot (if there's no K between them) or in worst case, I might still stay alive - if button decieds to SP his set here, like I've seen him doing before, or if I have him beaten and the all-in has a K.

I don't say I DID check (results still to come), I'm only saying it might not be a bad move, in this situation, and the specific opponent. And I don't mean checking-down to bust an all-in player.


BTW, Pete, you didn't specify whether it's an all-in on the flop (in your view), or a different bet. Pot is now 1270, I have T1600 left.



PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

As I've asked Pete, how much should I bet here, if I decide to bet? I think that's quite a tricky one. Pot is 1270, I have T1600. As I said, although there's a side pot already, I should make my bet big enough (or rather small enough) for hands-that-I-beat to call, but not too big, as for only-hands-that-beat-me will call. How do you see it? As an all-in?



PrayingMantis

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I don't think it has to be too big. If the side pot is 260 (if I read your original post correctly), bet 200 and see what he does.

[Prickly Pete]

A small bet should do. 300 or so should do since that's roughly the sidepot size or a little bigger. I would be curious if others would bet based on the main pot + side pot.

That bet tells the other player that you've got a hand. If he reraises you allin, that's awfully tough. (you said he was a little nuts right?)

Most players won't bluff raise you here as they'll be happy to let you take out the allin guy yourself.

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
We're down to 7 at the table, (13 overall), blinds 50/100. I'm 3rd here with T2050, holding A /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the SB.

UTG folds, UTG+1 (T3020, loose calling station) limps, folded to button (T1620, our friend from the previous hand, who keeps losing and winning big, with some crazy moves) who limps. I raise to 400. BB (desperate, T270 after posting) calls and he's all-in. UTG+1 folds, our friend the Button calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rather than dealing with how to play the flop, I think you should rethink your slow-play here. With T200 in the pot behind you and a very likely call in front of you for T370 more, I think your focus should go from maximizing your profit with AA to minimizing your chance of getting sucked out.

I'd attempt to isolate the BB in this spot every time.

Martin

[PrayingMantis]

I think you are right. My raise PF was probably much too small, considering the desperate BB who was still to act behind me. I realized it was a mistake the second BB pushed, because I knew immidiately that the button is going to call as well. And he did.

Thanks,
PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

Side pot is actually only T60: me and Button put 400 each, UTG+1 put 100, and BB put 100 (Blind) + 270, which leaves only T60 between me and Button.
Still, I guess your bet size (and Kurn's) wouldn't be different, although the side-pot is smaller than what you thought. Am I wrong?

[unfrgvn]

Wouldn't the main pot be 1160 and the side pot only about 160? The all in posted the BB(100) and then called all in for 270 more, with 2 callers and the small blind I come up with 1160 in the main pot and only 110 or so in the side pot.

I don't think we're that far apart on our view on how to play this. I think you are basically saying bet T200 and if he reraises all in fold. My view is to check rather than risk that T200 to a reraise. The advantage to your method is you give him a chance to fold, the disadvantage is you may lose 200 more chips. I guess the disadvantage to my method is he may semi-bluff all in and you fold the better hand or end up giving him a card to beat you with. Still, if you did flop the 3 k's, wouldn't you check from first to act and see if he makes a run at the pot? I don't think the check in this spot would necessarily show weakness.

Doug
not arguing, just enjoying the discussion.

[PrayingMantis]

Just to make things clear: side pot is 60. Not a chip more.

[itsmarty]

[ QUOTE ]
My raise PF was probably much too small, considering the desperate BB who was still to act behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of laughed at myself for referring to your T400 bet as "slow-playing", so I'm glad you saw where I was coming from /images/graemlins/smile.gif I haven't seen the results yet, so I'm hoping it all worked out.

Martin

[ThaSaltCracka]

Kurn,
Can you break that down a little for me. The one thing I have never been able to grasp is outs vs. pot odds.
Thanks
Cracka

[PrayingMantis]

Hey Cracka,

I'll try to break it down for you, if Kurn will allow me /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

I'll take the set vs. flush scenario. let's say you have 99, your opponent has Ad-8d, and the flop is 5d-9d-Jd.

Now, if you hit any 5 or J you have a boat. If you hit a 9, you have quads. If the turn AND river are same rank (say 8-8), you also have a boat. All of these options beat his flush, no matter what suit they come.

So, 5 and J and 9 are together 7 outs. The runner-runner same rank is about 3 outs (it's equivalent to 0.06 probability, I won't get into this now). You have now 10 outs to beat the flush. 10 outs for the runner-runner give you approximately 2:1 odds of beating him, which is one in three times.
(You can check it out on twodimes.com, or make the calculation yourself, if you know some basic math and know a bit about probability. It's not too difficult).

Now, for the pot odds to be good in that situation, you have to get MORE than 2:1 for the money you put in. Say the pot is T900, (you know he has the flush), and he goes in for T300, which is all he has now. You have to call 300, into a 1200 pot. You are getting 4:1 for your chips here, so your pot-odds are more than enough. You are actually a big winner here (long run).

If you had to call 2000, into a 3000 pot, you are not getting the right-pot odds (it's only 3:2) This would be a bad call.

Now - this refers to all-in situations, where you get to see BOTH turn and river for the same money. If it's not all-in, odds should be calculated for each street alone. It's a different story now.

I Hope this helps, and that I wasn't messing things up...

(I'm sure there are people here who could have done it much better)



PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

Mantis that helps a lot,
question though,
the 1 in 3 chance that I win is this found by taking my prob. to hit one of my outs on the turn plus my prob. of hitting one of my outs on the river divided by two?
or:

(.40+.20)/2= .30% ?
of course those are rounded a bit, I used the 4-2 rule.

so if the probablilty to hit is less than my pot odds I should call?

Cracka

[PrayingMantis]

This is not very dramamtic...

I decided I want to get the button out, and not risking being bluffed, so I bet T600 into the pretty dry side pot, figuring if he only calls, I'm in a problem.

But he folds.

BB shows T /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I take it down.


Thanks for all your replies. I think I raised too little PF, and probably bet too much on the flop. I should balance myself a little... /images/graemlins/grin.gif


There was another interesting hand with the same guy later on, but I'll save it for another thread.




PrayingMantis

[PrayingMantis]

Not exactly.

The easiest way IMO is to calculate first what are the odds that NEITHER turn nor river bring one of our 7 basic outs (meaning, pair one of the flop's cards, to make us either quads or a boat):

40/47 * 39/46 = 1560/2162 = ~0.72

The prob. of MAKING the boat or quads this way is then

1 - 0.72 = 0.28

Now, you have to ADD to this the probability of making the runner-runner same rank (that will also make us a boat), which is about 3/46 = ~0.065.

If you add our 2 numbers together: 0.28 + 0.065 = 0.345.

This is the probability of your set beating his flush. In odd-terms it will be something like 1.9:1.

That's what Kurn was talking about when he said 2:1.


PrayingMantis

[ThaSaltCracka]

I got you now, I can see how my calculation was off a little.
so just for my own reference the prob. of runner runner same rank is about 6.5%?

[PrayingMantis]

Roughly so. When 2 hole cards and 3 flop cards are accounted for, and the 2 runner-runner-same-rank are not any of our cards' ranks or the flop's.