Turn card - what's your line?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t835)
MP1 (t825)
MP2 (t1245)
CO (t360)
Button (t785)
SB (t930)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t2245)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, MP1 calls t75, MP2 calls t75.

Flop: (t277.50) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (t277.50) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t180</font>, MP2 folds, Hero.....

[45suited]

New to this forum, but I have a question: Why didn't you lead at the flop? Were you planning a check-raise? I think a nice size bet on the flop takes the pot a good percentage of the time. Now, the decision is trickier, I lean towards folding. I'll probably get flamed for that, but I think you can find a better spot later...

[bluefeet]

T180 for a T637 pot.... 3.5/1

With the nut flush &amp; two overs, folding is out of the question.

I gather you're more torn between calling and pushing.

If you call and miss, it would be very tough to get him off the pot having checked the flop &amp; turn. Check/fold, and you're down to T500ish.

Hard to peg MP1, with his bet on the turn. If he flopped the flush, would he bet at all yet? Maybe if it was a small flush, and he doesn't care to see a 4d. It could easily represent hitting the Q...maybe leaving himself an out for when you come over the top.

I vote push. Worst case - he has the flush....you still have 9 outs.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]

Worst case - he has the flush....you still have 7 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Edit: [deleted]

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
OP: you could have seen river alot cheaper by betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that? I don't have position.

Also, I'm posting this hand for fun. I know how I would play this hand.

[45suited]

If hero folds, he has t685 left. Plenty of time, plenty of chips. I don't really like calling because if a diamond hits, I don't really see you getting paid off on the river. I don't like pushing because I don't like putting my entire tournament on the line early with poor odds. Yes, you have two overs and the nut flush draw, but with only one card to come. That's why I lead at the flop, I don't mind getting all my money in (if raised) on the flop, why do it now on the turn when the odds are now worse? Granted you've got some FE, but I think you'll get called enough that pushing is a bad move. Of course, I could be wrong. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Big Limpin']

Sorry, im a moron. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

First, the pot is ~t270.

villain bets 2/3 pot. What does this tell me?

How many outs do I have?

Maybe: Aces, Kings, AND Jacks (if villains hand is weak)
For sure: 9 flush cards (assuming no dead outs).

So, all we need to decide is, how much strength does villains bet represent?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
So, all we need to decide is, how much strength does villains bet represent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering how little interest in this pot our Hero has shown thus far, I don't think he needs that strong of a hand to make this bet.

[Rosencrantz1]

Well, after reading through the posts I am guessing that you mean this to be a more or less academic problem versus something you are really having a question on; fair enough.

That said, I would lead out on the flop with my overs. I lead with the raise PF and checking the flop is too weak, IMO. Continuation bet of about 50% of the pot seems like a decent play. Defines Villain's hand, etc.

But as to the question you ask:
Hero has a ton of outs and the villain is repping a pair of Queens. Is there a chance he has two pair or trips? Sure, but I tend to think when faced with betting like this that it's pretty straight forward (repping actual hands, I mean). So I would put him on Qx, maybe QK or QA.
Given that, I figure we have a ton of outs: 9 diamonds, 2 non-diamond Kings, 3 aces, 3 non-diamond jacks. That's 17 outs and even if we discount a couple high cards since villain may have them, we're in pretty good shape.

I say push and make him decide if his hand is strong enough to call with...

[Pepsquad]

Call. I can't believe nobody has mentioned that we are still on level one. With blinds at 25/50+ this situation becomes stickier but I see nothing wrong with calling and trying to hit one of our outs. You can dump this hand on the river if you don't hit with plenty of time and plenty of chips.

[RiverDood]

Shoot me if I missed this, but I don't think the original post specified the stakes.

The cash at risk will insinuate its way into our decision-making, too. If it's a small buyin, it may not seem enormously appealing to fold the turn or river on a borderline hand and then spend the next 45 minutes trying to grind one's way into third place. Push -- and life stays exciting. Maybe we gain a big enough stack to have some fun for the rest of the tournament. Or we're out. Then we can go hunt for a new game or have dinner with J Lo, or whatever.

That's not the most disciplined way to play poker, but when the decision is close -- which this one is -- and the stakes are modest, then time management enters into the picture.

At higher stakes, there's more reward for finding the very best play, even if it may mean sweating it out in short-stack land for a while.

Anyway, I assumed it was modest stakes and voted "Push." I think there's a 30% chance his raise is based on nothing but our perceived weakness. 70% chance he's got a Q or a flush.

And I'm expecting to get called.

Interesting hand. What's your read?

[Ogre]

what buyin is it?

[Phil Van Sexton]

This is the closest poll results ever. All 3 choices are dead even right now.

I'm sure you can guess which one I voted for.

[Unarmed]

Well, my thoughts are:

Checking the flop is good. BTW betting the flop for 1/2 pot on an ill advised continuation bet is retarded and will have me coming over the top with two cards. Would a sane player bet 1/2 pot with AA?

After you check the flop you have a whiffed AK/AQ if they view you as tight, add in KG/99 etc if they have no read on you. Fortunately, everyone else missed too.

Turn is a Q, which could very well have made your hand, but is also highly likely to have made someone elses hand. Still, I think you could have bet this. I'd be shocked if you are up against a strong made hand after the flop gets checked around, so its doubtful you will get raised here.

If someone has QJ/KQ and you get called you still have outs to the nuts and have done a nice job disguising your hand. As a result of this you may actually get paid off if your draw hits on the river even though you're OOP.

Given you check and QJ/KQ bets I think you should fold. If you call you might as well slap AK with a diamond to your forehead, so you're not getting paid off if a scare card drops. Being OOP on the river magnifies this issue.

C/R all-in is pretty insane given:

- you're not folding out any hands that have you beat
- you currently have nothing and only one card to come
- you're playing in a SNG and don't need to expose yourself to this type of variance early on

[adanthar]

Very tough hand the way you played it. I voted fold initially but missed your gutshot which makes it a push.

However, I'd have raised less PF and bet the flop.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
what buyin is it?


[/ QUOTE ]

$33. Daytime if that matters too.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, my thoughts are:

Checking the flop is good. BTW betting the flop for 1/2 pot on an ill advised continuation bet is retarded and will have me coming over the top with two cards. Would a sane player bet 1/2 pot with AA?

After you check the flop you have a whiffed AK/AQ if they view you as tight, add in KG/99 etc if they have no read on you. Fortunately, everyone else missed too.

Turn is a Q, which could very well have made your hand, but is also highly likely to have made someone elses hand. Still, I think you could have bet this. I'd be shocked if you are up against a strong made hand after the flop gets checked around, so its doubtful you will get raised here.

If someone has QJ/KQ and you get called you still have outs to the nuts and have done a nice job disguising your hand. As a result of this you may actually get paid off if your draw hits on the river even though you're OOP.

Given you check and QJ/KQ bets I think you should fold. If you call you might as well slap AK with a diamond to your forehead, so you're not getting paid off if a scare card drops. Being OOP on the river magnifies this issue.

C/R all-in is pretty insane given:

- you're not folding out any hands that have you beat
- you currently have nothing and only one card to come
- you're playing in a SNG and don't need to expose yourself to this type of variance early on

[/ QUOTE ]

?? I would bet half the pot with a lot of hands here, especially AA-QQ with a diamond. The reason I do this is so that maybe some crazy player will reraise sensing "weakness".

[Unarmed]

With AdAx, leading for 1/2 pot would be a fine play, and you'd take my chips if I was last to act. That still doesn't make it a good line for Scuba to attempt with AdKc.

[Scuba Chuck]

I thought about betting the flop. How much? I would have only mini-bet, t30. That's as far as I was willing to go. Experience has shown me that this small a bet gets many callers. So, I don't always gain as much info as I hope.

That being said, I also could have lead out on the turn. This might be a better line. But I'm still waiting to see if there is a flush bet. IMO a flush bet would be small. At most half pot.

A turn call. Well, I care for this the least (unless a J hits of course). I am very unlikely to be paid off for a call.

Push/raise. Well, this is where I am not confident. Pushing will be called here ...how often? And what about just raising, as opposed to pushing? Any thoughts here?

[flyby4553]

Let the big stack run over you, and in turn you should be attempting to run over the 2 small stacks.

[The Yugoslavian]

I push given the way the hand went.

I normally play that hand differently pre-flop though and if I make it to the turn after checking around on the flop I will fold to such action...

Yugoslav

[Nick M]

Totally Agree

It's weird. I immediatley thought move in on the flop. Than I said nahhhh way to much of an over bet. Than I realized this is Party not PS. So yeah move in on the flop. I also agree that folding in this particular line is correct. I hate calling with draws out of position. Especially draws like this, where even if you hit the diamond you are not likely to get paid off. That's saying that opponents even have something to pay you off with...this bet could be a bluff.

[NYCNative]

I don't check that flop. At the minimum I make a $150 continuation bet. Most of the time with two overs and the nut flush draw (and runner-runner straight as well), I am making a pot-sized bet. If AT reraises me or even TT reraises, I am confident enough in my outs to push. More likely you will either get a smoothcall (and I would push the turn regardless of what it was - well, okay, maybe T/images/graemlins/spade.gif slows me down) but most of the time you can take it down right there.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't check that flop. At the minimum I make a $150 continuation bet. Most of the time with two overs and the nut flush draw (and runner-runner straight as well), I am making a pot-sized bet. If AT reraises me or even TT reraises, I am confident enough in my outs to push. More likely you will either get a smoothcall (and I would push the turn regardless of what it was - well, okay, maybe T/images/graemlins/spade.gif slows me down) but most of the time you can take it down right there.

[/ QUOTE ]


IMO the only appropriate flop bet here is allin. If someone raises you, you almost surely have to call the allin, thus you don't want to do anything to encourage someone to make a move with a weak hand that they would have folded, yet happens to be about 50-50 to your hand. (ie you don't want some crazy Yugoslav raising you allin with 44 because you showed weakness, and then it turns out you are actually just racing (ok you are pretty nice favorite, but you'd still rather have had him fold) against his bluff)


Note I'm just giving advice assuming you planned to bet the flop. Checking is reasonable too although I'd plan on check raising. However I would actually lean towards opening allin on the flop here.

[valenzuela]

I refuse to vote until you explain to me why u didnt bet the flop. ( Im not saying ure an idiot, im saying that I want u to explain to me why u didnt bet that flop.)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I refuse to vote until you explain to me why u didnt bet the flop. ( Im not saying ure an idiot, im saying that I want u to explain to me why u didnt bet that flop.)


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm already in a bood mood tonight.

Who the [censored] are you? Do I owe you something? "I refuse to vote" bullshit until "you explain to me..." How about just don't respond to my posts any longer. Not saying you're an idiot is implying I'm an idiot. [censored] you.