Turn card - what's your line?

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 (t835)
MP1 (t825)
MP2 (t1245)
CO (t360)
Button (t785)
SB (t930)
Hero (t775)
UTG (t2245)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, MP1 calls t75, MP2 calls t75.

Flop: (t277.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: (t277.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t180</font>, MP2 folds, Hero.....

[45suited]

New to this forum, but I have a question: Why didn't you lead at the flop? Were you planning a check-raise? I think a nice size bet on the flop takes the pot a good percentage of the time. Now, the decision is trickier, I lean towards folding. I'll probably get flamed for that, but I think you can find a better spot later...

[bluefeet]

T180 for a T637 pot.... 3.5/1

With the nut flush &amp; two overs, folding is out of the question.

I gather you're more torn between calling and pushing.

If you call and miss, it would be very tough to get him off the pot having checked the flop &amp; turn. Check/fold, and you're down to T500ish.

Hard to peg MP1, with his bet on the turn. If he flopped the flush, would he bet at all yet? Maybe if it was a small flush, and he doesn't care to see a 4d. It could easily represent hitting the Q...maybe leaving himself an out for when you come over the top.

I vote push. Worst case - he has the flush....you still have 9 outs.

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]

Worst case - he has the flush....you still have 7 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Edit: [deleted]

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
OP: you could have seen river alot cheaper by betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is that? I don't have position.

Also, I'm posting this hand for fun. I know how I would play this hand.

[45suited]

If hero folds, he has t685 left. Plenty of time, plenty of chips. I don't really like calling because if a diamond hits, I don't really see you getting paid off on the river. I don't like pushing because I don't like putting my entire tournament on the line early with poor odds. Yes, you have two overs and the nut flush draw, but with only one card to come. That's why I lead at the flop, I don't mind getting all my money in (if raised) on the flop, why do it now on the turn when the odds are now worse? Granted you've got some FE, but I think you'll get called enough that pushing is a bad move. Of course, I could be wrong. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Big Limpin']

Sorry, im a moron. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Scuba Chuck]

First, the pot is ~t270.

villain bets 2/3 pot. What does this tell me?

How many outs do I have?

Maybe: Aces, Kings, AND Jacks (if villains hand is weak)
For sure: 9 flush cards (assuming no dead outs).

So, all we need to decide is, how much strength does villains bet represent?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
So, all we need to decide is, how much strength does villains bet represent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering how little interest in this pot our Hero has shown thus far, I don't think he needs that strong of a hand to make this bet.

[Rosencrantz1]

Well, after reading through the posts I am guessing that you mean this to be a more or less academic problem versus something you are really having a question on; fair enough.

That said, I would lead out on the flop with my overs. I lead with the raise PF and checking the flop is too weak, IMO. Continuation bet of about 50% of the pot seems like a decent play. Defines Villain's hand, etc.

But as to the question you ask:
Hero has a ton of outs and the villain is repping a pair of Queens. Is there a chance he has two pair or trips? Sure, but I tend to think when faced with betting like this that it's pretty straight forward (repping actual hands, I mean). So I would put him on Qx, maybe QK or QA.
Given that, I figure we have a ton of outs: 9 diamonds, 2 non-diamond Kings, 3 aces, 3 non-diamond jacks. That's 17 outs and even if we discount a couple high cards since villain may have them, we're in pretty good shape.

I say push and make him decide if his hand is strong enough to call with...