Those strange bad beats at Party

[snowmen]

It is very strange the huge amount of bad beats you get in Party Poker. Some hands even runner runner break you. An in general the river is not your friend. I know you see much more hands on inet than in real games but these kinds of bad moves happen almost all the time. What do yo think about?

PD:Miracle cards appear sometimes but not too often like some internet sites.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]

And in general the river is not your friend.

but these kinds of bad moves happen almost all the time.

PD:Miracle cards appear sometimes but not too often like some internet sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is unlikely that the viewers of this forum are sophisticated enough to understand all of that statistical mumbo-jumbo you mention above.

The quality of the responses you get may not match the insightfulness of your observations.

Irieguy

[(my name it is) Sam Hall]

As much as I'd like to think Party is rigged, I can't come up with any logical argument backed by statistically significant numbers to prove it. I usually think this after some joker calls my all-in AA with his K6s after no one hit anything on the flop. He needed either two diamonds, two kings, or two sixes on 4th and 5th streets and got the two sixes. Looking back at that hand, yeah it seems like (yet another) ridiculous bad beat, but you have to remember just because you're a 4:1 favorite doesn't mean you'll never lose. Until those bad beats happens to a person at least 200 times, he has very little chance of proving it's not just random bad luck. Stupid garbage like that happens all the time and if one of these times it pushes me over the edge to actually calculate if Party is rigged I'm going to have to say it's just bad luck. I'll let everyone know if it is rigged, but I doubt it.

[snowmen]

Playing B&M you don't see these kind of miracle draw.

[pindawg]

[ QUOTE ]
It is very strange the huge amount of bad beats you get in Party Poker. Some hands even runner runner break you. An in general the river is not your friend. I know you see much more hands on inet than in real games but these kinds of bad moves happen almost all the time. What do yo think about?

PD:Miracle cards appear sometimes but not too often like some internet sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

So Party Poker is out to get you specifically? If the river isn't your friend then whos friend is it? Have youever been on the other side of a suckout, and if so would you post about it here?

[rjb03]

The river is not your friend because good players usually put their chips in with made hands and decent favorites, therefore the river will obviously help people still on the draw more often than it will help you (win).

[pshreck]

I have had pocket aces 179 times on party poker, and they have got cracked every single time. I think it's just bad luck.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
I have had pocket aces 179 times on party poker, and they have got cracked every single time. I think it's just bad luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

as sarcastically as you may be trying to come off, maybe you need to change sites then. i hear you only suppossed to get pocket rockets every so 220 hands so if you've gotten chopped off at the kneecaps 179 times, that means you've played at least 40K hands. you must be pulling out the last of your receeding hairline. keep grinding, playa. better players win out in the long run./images/graemlins/cool.gif

[snowmen]

Some people is misunderstanding this post.I am not all-in with 75o looking for a four of a kind !! i mean for example i have made my royal straight and one person is all-in i call and then with 2 runners he makes full house , or getting top pair and a river rat makes a set of deuces in the river, or cracking a set of flopped aces (AA+A in the flop) with runners etc. I win money playing Party but i think i should win more if these kind of miracle draw do not happen.

PD: I always try to protect my hand.

[spazm6666]

Here's my take on it.... Look at the limits you are playing. Risking 10, 20, even 30 is no big deal. These ppl are inundated with clips of crazy Gus Hansen aggressiveness 10 times a week and how he hits flops with crazy cards. And if you are playing SnGo's (which I am currently on hiatus from because of this very type of thinking) much more gambling has to take place to survive and get in the money. Blind structure does not allow for super tight play so ppl loosen up WAY too much and stab at everything. Sometimes they hit when you are ahead.

Next look at how many times you get called with total crap and they dont hit. Then see why you are a winning player. Because of those same bad calls that dont hit.

And Finally..... Doyle says flat out, "Better players see more bad beats because they are not afraid to get all their chips in the middle." So keep pushing em in. You're ahead now, you'll be farther ahead later.

[zephyr]

Why won't anyone just admit that Party Poker, in partnership with the CIA, and a group of aliens from alpha centauri, have pooled their billions of dollars, advanced intelligence, and scientific brilliance to create a machine that is capable of shifting odds such that on a biweekly basis one player is targetted and experiences an enormous amount of bad beats. The machine then causes the player to post his horror story on 2+2, and causes those that read it to immediately deny the possibility that PP is fixed.

Seems like the only logical solution to me.

Zephyr

[zephyr]

[ QUOTE ]
Next look at how many times you get called with total crap and they dont hit. Then see why you are a winning player. Because of those same bad calls that dont hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason I think there's a slight possibility that he's not a winning player...ohh wait, he's a 2+2 poster. I retract my comment.

Zephyr

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Why won't anyone just admit that Party Poker, in partnership with the CIA, and a group of aliens from alpha centauri, have pooled their billions of dollars, advanced intelligence, and scientific brilliance to create a machine that is capable of shifting odds such that on a biweekly basis one player is targetted and experiences an enormous amount of bad beats. The machine then causes the player to post his horror story on 2+2, and causes those that read it to immediately deny the possibility that PP is fixed.

Seems like the only logical solution to me.

Zephyr

[/ QUOTE ]

The truth is out there.

eastbay

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why won't anyone just admit that Party Poker, in partnership with the CIA, and a group of aliens from alpha centauri, have pooled their billions of dollars, advanced intelligence, and scientific brilliance to create a machine that is capable of shifting odds such that on a biweekly basis one player is targetted and experiences an enormous amount of bad beats. The machine then causes the player to post his horror story on 2+2, and causes those that read it to immediately deny the possibility that PP is fixed.

Seems like the only logical solution to me.

Zephyr

[/ QUOTE ]

The truth is out there.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

and yet people still choose to disregard it. i wonder why? this is like one of those old school Arsenio Hall Show brainteasers that make you go, HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

[rci97]

[ QUOTE ]
I have had pocket aces 179 times on party poker, and they have got cracked every single time. I think it's just bad luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have clearly failed to recognize the difference between red aces and black aces. A detailed statistical analysis shows that red aces have a -EV on PP. Recognizing these subtle nuances of internet poker is the difference between fish and the winning players.

[(my name it is) Sam Hall]

Thanks to Zephyr's insight, I am now getting fitted for a new tin foil hat. Does anyone know where to get 40,000 wire coathangers that doesn't involve me having to spend four hours digging through closets at the retirement home?

On the subject of bad beats, Snowmen, you need to also look at them this way in the context of S&G tourneys: The probability of success on a single trial is "P." For a coin flip, P=0.5. The probability of success on "n" successive coin flips is P^n. You probably know that, but realize that if you're picking fights with people you know are going to call you to the river with only a draw, you will get beat a 1-P^n fraction of the time. That means even if you go all-in AA vs. K6s three times, you only survive 57% of the time. It's still a good bet for you to make, but if couldn't get beat, no one would ever bet against you, right?

[captZEEbo1]

you are wrong.

[se2schul]

I think this may be one of the only posts where I might be qualified to answer. Basically, good players feel like they get outdrawn more often than they outdraw people because good players have made hands more often and are on draws less often.

Of course it's going to seem like you get outdrawn many times if you play with players that draw a lot. It will also feel like you aren't outdrawing people if you usually play made hands instead of the inside straights or 4-flushes.

If you were to compare your ROI or other meaningful stats against these people who are constantly drawing, I doubt you'll be complaining.

Steve

[slickterp]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing B&M you don't see these kind of miracle draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe that's b/c there are exponentially more bad players on the net than in b&m's

[Killer Mike]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Playing B&M you don't see these kind of miracle draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe that's b/c there are exponentially more bad players on the net than in b&m's

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen. You can play as low as 0.01/0.02 online...this will attract infinitely terrible players. In a B&M, the minimum is usually 2/4. Likewise, you can play online tourneys for $2 vs. $50 and up in a B&M. The lower the amount of money required, the more bad players you're going to run into and you're going to lose to hands worse than yours that shouldn't have even been in the pot in the first place. If you want to see an even better example of this theory, spend some time on the play chip tables...it's bad beats galore because no one cares about fake money.

We've been through this a hundred times, even in my short tenure on 2+2. Bad beats happen...especially against bad players. Nothing is rigged. Move on and be thankful that there are idiots out there trying to catch their draws against your monster hands...they are a good player's cash cow.

[pooh74]

hmmm...snowmen, you should just come over to stars because this issue is NEVER complained about there. I've not once heard such complaints over at pstars...If there were such an issue I would imagine people would say things such as:
"riverstars", "flushstars", "you never see such suckouts live", blah blah blah....geez, no offense, but I come to 2+2 as a refreshing break from such poker talk. I guess im a glutton for it too cas here I am posting about it.

The psychological explanation I believe would be that our brains/memory tend to focus on "peculiar" outcomes instead of just common occurences...so when a hand that's 70-30 fav wins twice we dont pay any mind but when it loses we file it. The thing that boggles my mind is the huge amount of people that never think about this and go on to no end about how "this sight (sic) is rigged!"

*sigh*

[Poker_God]

its not just party poker internet poker in geneeral is ruthless but who nows...maybe it is rigged...lol