Proper use of calculating pot odds

[NutCrackerr]

When considering calling a flop bet, should you consider your odds of making your hand on the turn card or your odds of hmaking it on either the turn or the river?

Example: (don't be concerned with the way this hand is played, just consider proper pot odds)

You are the button and hold K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Preflop: 1 MP limper, you limp, SB completes, BB checks.
Pot = 2 bb

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You have 9 solid outs.

SB checks, BB bets, MP limper raises. Now there are 3.5 BB in the pot, (4 bb assuming SB folds and BB calls). So I'm getting 4 to 1 pot odds. If my math is correct the odds of making your flush on the turn are 4.22 to 1 against you, so technically it would be a mistake to call. However, the odds you make your flush on the turn or river is only 1.86 to 1, making this an easy call.

Which is correct? Should I try to estimate my total cost to see the river when considering my odds are 1.86 to 1? Or should I only consider what my odds are of hitting my hand on the turn?

Some clarification would be greatly appreciated.

[DMBFan23]

I usually like to do it street by street, if I dont have the odds to call a flop bet, I probably wont have the odds to call a turn bet either, especially not if there's lots of raising. but with a nut flush draw I usually like to see more streets, the implied odds here are pretty good

[cardcounter0]

re-raise.

[daryn]

re-raise? i can't dig it.

[cardcounter0]

You have a small chance of taking the pot on the turn or river because of your show of strength, if you make the flush or not.

The odds of making the nut flush are 1.86 to 1. If the bettor and raiser both call, you are getting 2 to 1 on your raise.

You will likely get checked to on the turn, so you get a free card to try to make your flush on the river, if the turn is a blank.

[NutCrackerr]

You are totally missing the point. The question is which set of implied odds do you consider here? And why?

Someone here knows I'm sure.

P.S. I totally agree that a 3-bet would be the proper play in this situation.

[NutCrackerr]

This is the way I've been playing as well but I got to thinking that perhaps I've been laying too many hands down on the flop.

[cardcounter0]

You don't use the odds just based on getting it on the turn.

The idea of "implied" odds is what are your odds of getting it on the turn and/or river and including likely future bets (implied part) into your odds calculation.

I said re-raise. I pointed out that if both call you are getting 2:1 on a 1.86:1 shot. If you don't make the flush on the turn, I point out that a raise will likely get you a free card, while merely calling is going to get you bet into again, making the odds you will be getting lower for trying for the flush on the river.

What are the odds of getting a flush on the flop? If you just use those odds, when would you ever have good enough odds to call with two-suited preflop?

[Ed Miller]

You guys really shouldn't ask these questions about strong draws like flush and quality open-ended straight draws. Essentially, you should almost never fold these hands before the river, no matter the pot size. You make these draws often enough that the pot will basically ALWAYS be big enough to draw.

I think that's what's confusing people. For instance, you stated that if you considered only the next card, you should fold the flush draw. But that's not right! You are getting 3.5-to-1 immediately, but the player who bet is almost certain to call, and you will earn bets on the turn and river when you make your flush. Your pot odds are 3.5-to-1, but your implied odds are MUCH better. They will basically always be sufficient to call with a flush draw on the flop.

[theghost]

If you have TOP, this concept is touched on in chapter 6: Effective Odds.