Final Table NLH “Reverse Gap Theory” Hand (Poll Included)

[Rick Nebiolo]

At the ten handed final table of a $330 buy in (one rebuy allowed) “winner take all” no limit tournament I started with T10,500 out of T71,000 in chips. Unfortunately I couldn’t get a hand to play back at other player’s raises or in a position to attack first in with a reasonable hand (98 would be reasonable with my tight image). By the time it was eight handed I had an average stack. Here we negotiated a “save” of $500 for seven players with approximately equal stacks and $1000 for the player with a stack slightly more than double anyone else (these “winner take all” tournaments actually encourage and simplify deal-making). Now we are playing for the remaining $16,800 (there is usually another deal or save when it gets two to four handed).

Three more rounds go by getting no cards but I make a couple blind/ante steals to maintain a half decent stack of T6,600. Unfortunately the blinds are now T500/T1000 with a T100 ante (there are 25 more minutes in this round).

We are now seven handed and a decent player UTG + 2 with a short stack of T2,100 goes all in. A very tight but knowledgeable player in the SB with the largest stack of about T22,000 goes into the tank. I know he knows that UTG+2 is now capable of entering “light” with only two free hands before he is pot stuck in his BB. He looks at my three small stacks and appears to count it down. He then goes all in. I look at my cards and have AT suited. Now I go into the tank.

If I fold I will have T4900 (assuming I fold my SB next hand) and a chance to double up in my next orbit by preferably getting my money in first. If I call and win I will have a stack of T13,800 (my T5500, the SB’s T5500, T700 in antes, and the short stack’s T2,100).

Please vote in the poll but comments are especially appreciated!

[turnipmonster]

snip. I am stupid. I think it's probably a coin flip getting about 2 to 1 on your money.

--turnipmonster

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
snip. I am stupid. I think it's probably a coin flip getting about 2 to 1 on your money.

--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

coinflip on the main pot or the side pot? my thinking was that utg+2 would push any remotely decent hand and that therefor the SB would push a wide range of hands. ATs figures to be ahead of both other hands pretty frequently here.

if this were a regular tournament (valuing staying alive) it would be a tougher decision, but here you call and hope.

[Namebejed7]

I voted "fold but close decision" because I think there is a strong likelyhood you are dominated and drawing to a ten. I did forget that it's a winner take all tourney though, so I might change but I can't say for sure. You're getting about 1.5:1 on your money and only if you are the dominating hand with the other players having weaker aces do you improve to a coinflip. Another factor to consider is surviving to the next "save." If I thought there was a good possibility of making the final 4, I would definitely fold here to try to steal a couple, but again that can only be determined by being there really.

[turnipmonster]

well, in my intial post I thought that we could maybe put the short stack on Ace anything, and the big stack on a small pocket pair (it's a vulnerable hand and I think he doesn't want a call from rick).

even so, he's really only 2 to 1 in most situations, but getting a little less than that in pot equity.

domination isn't a huge consideration in the main pot, most players wouldn't tank with AK, so he's really only worried about AQ/AJ from the big stack. assuming the big stack isn't hollywooding, I think rick probably has a coin flip for the main pot, although he certainly could be dominated. I think it is far more likely the big stack pushed with 22-99, and wants to shut everyone out.

--turnipmonster

[sam h]

The tournament structure is the decisive factor here. Since often you will need to survive four or five eliminations to see more of the top heavy money, you should be more willing to gambool. Both your opponents are fairly likely to have weaker aces, two paint, or small pairs. And if you win you will have 15,800 rather than 13,800 (I think you forgot to include your own blind). You are getting almost 3:1, and you will only be a bigger dog than that against a better ace or big pair. I'd say its close, but a call.

[turnipmonster]

I made the same mistake, he's not getting 3 to 1. he's risking 4900 to win 8900, so he's getting 1.8 to 1.

--turnipmonster

[tubbyspencer]

I voted call, but a close call, not easy(in fact I would have checked "painful" call if it had been an option - lol).

My reason has essentially been voiced by others - the winner take all format makes it neccessary. If even 3 places paid, I think the answer might/should be different.

[tubbyspencer]

By the way, regarding the title of your post: Why do you call this a "Reverse Gap Theory" hand? Understanding the Gap Concept(that is - you have to have a better hand to call a raise then you do to raise with) is what makes this a difficult situation, no?

[gergery]

I think its pretty close either way, but calling is probably better. ATs is a slight underdog vs. a top 15% hand (1 to 1.1) and a slight favorite vs. a top 25% hand (1:3 to 1). So it depends on what you think they’ve got. I don’t see a good player going all-in without at least a top 40% hand (1:5 to 1 fav), and maybe top 25%, and I would put Bigstack on a top 25% hand at least given a couple yet to act. So I figure you are likely EV positive by calling but not by a lot, and are taking a lower % play (ie. ~60% of the time you get knocked out). But folding leaves you very shortstacked and the payout structure demands more risk-taking.