AKs

[Instinct]

Usually play 100nl and below but I won a seat in 500nl at stars.
In secoond hr, blinds 100-200 ( I have 3500 in chip)
4 limpers, I have AKs on CO and raise to 800
Button raises allin and has me covered.
I call, he shows kk I'm gone.

SHould I be laying down AK more often to a RR allin?
Only been playing nl tourny's for about 6 months and down money even though have some decent finishs. This seems to be a way I'm out a few times ...

[Ghazban]

I'm no tourney expert either but the question I'd ask myself in that situation is: "What could he be re-raising so much with that I can beat?". If he has a pocket pair below Ks, you're only a coinflip, to KK and AK, you're a big dog, and to AK, you're tied. Do you think he's doing this with AQ, KQs, AJs, or something like that that you'd be substantially ahead of? I'll muck AK to a big reraise more often than not just because those reraises are almost always pocket pairs of some strength (dependent on the player) and I feel like I can find a better spot than a coinflip for my money.

[Instinct]

From what i've read it seeems like the "pros" advice is that with 1200 in pot already ( when am I pot committed after raising with AK ?? ) its a call but I think that a decent player is laying down AK to a RR alot more than me. Winning these coin flips can build a nice chip lead but I think I need to learn to fold AK more pre flop.
My record is decent in the tourny's that have less tha 200 players but terrible when more than 400. I have a feeling that the players that seem to be in the money more are avoiding putting all there chips on the line for a coin flip.

[pzhon]

You only regret calling if you are up against AA. You actually have the pot-odds to call against KK since you have 2700 more and there is 2700 in dead money in the pot, and you win 34% of the time. Call. It's not close.

You may be giving too much respect to late position raises and reraises.

[Ghazban]

It depends on stack size, too. I hate calling all my money in w/AK to a re-raise but I don't mind so much when the other guy is the one who's tourney life is on the line. That way, even if I lose the coin flip, I'm still around to make more moves. If people are still in the hand with more money than me, I'd rather push in and pick up the blinds than raise, get re-raised, and call all-in (dependent on blind/stack sizes, of course). And, of course, you can't do anything all of the time or people will pick up on it. In general, though, I'd rather not call a reraise all-in if it'll cost me my whole stack to do it. Yes, I have the pot odds against anything but AA or KK, but in a tournament I'd rather survive another hand than go home.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
You only regret calling if you are up against AA. You actually have the pot-odds to call against KK since you have 2700 more and there is 2700 in dead money in the pot, and you win 34% of the time. Call. It's not close.

You may be giving too much respect to late position raises and reraises.

[/ QUOTE ]

you probably know this, but you only have pot odds to call KK in terms of tournmanet chips, but probably not in terms of expected cash. Having a 66% chance to bust out against a 34% of tripling up will decrease your expected win from the tourny. that aside, i agree completely - you gotta call. you're probably up against an under pair with close to 50% to triple up (relative to folding), and that i think is +EV. remember there are 6 ways to hold QQ but only 3 for AA and KK.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I have the pot odds against anything but AA or KK,

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the pot-odds to call against KK here. Folding against a lower pocket pair would be terrible.

[ QUOTE ]
but in a tournament I'd rather survive another hand than go home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but that's not wisdom. That is a common, exploitable weakness that probably causes you to win less. Maybe a lot less.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
you probably know this, but you only have pot odds to call KK in terms of tournmanet chips, but probably not in terms of expected cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I realize the value of chips may be nonlinear, and that calling against a known KK may be -EV. It might also be +EV given how many people are unwilling to get involved with a big stack. Having a big stack may allow you to take advantage of more good situations later.

There are a lot of unsubstantiated guesses about the nonlinearity of chip value. I believe the general tendency is to overestimate the effect close to the start of the tournament. People associate some sort of shame to losing quickly, and find excuses not to gamble when good opportunities present themselves. It is important to pay attention to E$ rather than EChips on the bubble, particularly when there are very short stacks, and when you have an unusually large stack. Neither is true here, so I see little reason not to make a +EChip play.

I don't plan to survive by blinding down. I plan to survive by accumulating a huge pile of chips that scares the heck out of cowards with short stacks.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
You only regret calling if you are up against AA. You actually have the pot-odds to call against KK since you have 2700 more and there is 2700 in dead money in the pot, and you win 34% of the time. Call. It's not close.

You may be giving too much respect to late position raises and reraises.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a little early in the morning for math, but what am I missing?

4 limpers at T200 each = T800.
Hero's raise to T800.
Villian's reraise to (effectively) T3500.


T2700 to call to win T2700 + T1600.

~1.6:1 on his money....If he showed KK, he's not +chipEV.

I may be missing something.

I think that he didn't raise enough initially with all the limpers. I think something closer to T1200 would have better defined his hand. That way you won't have 77-JJ going all in on you. Now, if someone moves after you, you can more easily put them on KK/AA and muck.

I agree that he should call here and expect to see TT-AA most of the time. Given that KK/AA is much less likely than TT-QQ, a call is easy with the dead money in the pot.

I completely agree with you analysis that people underestimate how close chipEV and $$EV is early in the tourney.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You actually have the pot-odds to call against KK since you have 2700 more and there is 2700 in dead money in the pot, and you win 34% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a little early in the morning for math, but what am I missing?

4 limpers at T200 each = T800.
Hero's raise to T800.
Villian's reraise to (effectively) T3500.

T2700 to call to win T2700 + T1600.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like you left out the 100/200 blinds and the villain's call of the hero's 800 raise before reraising. The villain reraised to 800+2700, so it is as though there was 800+800+1100=2700 in the pot, and then the villain bet 2700.

The total size of the pot after the hero called the reraise was 3500+3500+200+200+200+200+100+200= 8100.

There is actually so much money on the table with 4 limpers (1100) that pushing is reasonable. It would end the same way here, but it may get many pocket pairs to fold.