I suck with overpairs, it seems. help??

[2283]

just sat down, no real reads on anyone.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed)

UTG+2 ($13.75)
MP1 ($8)
MP2 ($39.75)
MP3 ($12.55)
CO ($4.20)
Button ($24.40)
SB ($34.35)
Hero ($14.50)
UTG ($4.50)
UTG+1 ($9.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 raises to $1, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($5) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets $2.5, SB folds, Hero raises to $6.5, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 goes all-in for $12.75, Hero folds.

im getting 4.28/1.

for the sake of calculation i'm going to assume he only has AK, an overpair, or a set (AQ is basically the same as AK).

if he has AcKc i win 4.28 half the time and lose 1 the rest for a net gain of 1.64. if he has AcKx or AxKc i win 73% of the time for a gain of 3.12 and a loss of .27 and a net of 2.85. AxKx i win 77% for a net gain of 3.07.

if he has an overpair or set its about 88.6 to 11.4 or a win of .48 and a loss of .89 for a net of -.41.

(anyone see problems with the above calculations?)

assuming, based on the fact that he pushed, that of the times he has AK he has AcKx or AxKc half the time (1.43), AcKc an eighth of the time (.21), and AxKx the rest (1.2), i put put the overall EV of AK at 2.84.

the EV of aces, kings, queens, jacks, nines, fours, and sevens are all basically -.41. so if i call and he has to have AK a little more than 1 time out of 7 to make it profitable. damn, that looks tempting, but can that be right? im so mixed up right now, these calculations are looking wrong. AK has more outs than I do against an overpair, it should be more like 3.5/1 or so with those 4.2/1 pot odds, right?

sigh... is there a better way to play this (minraising to give me worse pot odds is probably a start), i think i need to get out of the habit of going a little bit above the minimum just so they "get the point."

anyone favor smoothcalling? calling allin perhaps? what's the best line? i HATE hands like this!

Final Pot: $14

Results in white below: <font color="white">
No showdown. </font>