Overpair Fearing a Set

[gavrilo]

This is a hand played by a friend of mine in a $200NL online game with $1/2 Blinds. I did not see the hand and have no hand history so I'm going off what he told me.

Hero is on the button with KK
An EP raise to $10, Mp caller, Hero makes it $35, EP fold, MP calls. HU to the flop, both had around $230-240 stack to begin with, no information is provided about MP.

Flop is QJx
MP check/calls a pot-sized bet by hero.
So there is now somewhere around $240 in this pot leaving both of them with around $125 left.

Then turn was a low card putting a two flush out.

Mp checked, Hero checked.

Hero said he checked because he thought the guy had JJ or QQ. I think hero needs to push in here on the turn. Holding the guy to just two holdings when he does nothing but call throughout the hand is giving way too much credit(in this game I think it is).

If the guy did have QQ or JJ, I think his preflop call is very borderline with the size of the stacks here thus I think it's likely he would also call preflop with other holdings, does that make sense?

Also, the pot on the flop is around $240 if MP calls leaving only $125 behind, seems unlikely, although not impossible that he would be slowplaying here.

What do you think?
I do not know the results of this hand yet.

[Richie Rich]

I understand his concern. On that flop, he's losing to AA, QQ, & JJ, and only ahead of AK. These are the most likely hands EP would be holding, since he made a raise from EP and called your buddy's "significant" re-raise. (Obviously he would be tied if villain had the other KK, but that isn't likely.)

So your friend tested the waters and bet the pot on the flop, to which the opponent check-called. Do you think the villain would check-call the pot bet with AK? Seems pretty unlikely to me. No doubt I would be weary of EP slowplaying a better hand at this point -- although, if villain was holding AA, he may be worried that your friend is holding QQ/JJ. In this scenario, if EP checked again on the river, I would be happy to check behind (since > 80% of the time, only a winning hand would call or c/r).

[gavrilo]

Opponent in this hand did not raise preflop. There was an EP raise in which this player flat called.

[shadow29]

Why not QJ?

[gavrilo]

I suppose you can't really rule out any holding here since we know nothing of the opponent but that would be some preflop call with QJ.

[tewall]

If the other guy bet, your friend would be getting 3 to 1 on his call. No way he can fold that. Since he's not going to fold, he might as well bet. If the other guy is behind, make him pay to catch up. If he folds, that'd be great too (wouldn't hold my breath).

So betting gains when your friend is ahead, and loses nothing when behind, since any hand that beats your friend is going to put him all in anyway.

[gavrilo]

I agree

[theBruiser500]

The only hand "hero" (or since it's gavrillo's friend - I prefer to think of him as a villian) can beat is AQ. With AQ MP3 would probably just check it down on the river, I'd consider checking and then calling a small river bet or folding to an all in.

[theBruiser500]

Pot odds can be used to justify a lot of weak calls, in this hand if the dude leads out into "villian" all in, I'd say there's quite a good chance he's beat.

[gavrilo]

I find it quite amusing that you continue to bash me and now my friend who you don't even know. I remember you saying you hope I lose at poker. All this coming from a kid who thinks he is god at poker and played well beyond his bankroll and probably skill level and got smacked in the face.

Maybe you should post that $400NL hand where you reraised out of the SB with Q8o, flopped nothing, bet it the whole way, finally hit a gutshot on the river only to lose to a guy's flush, brilliant.

But, yes I'm the stupid idiot in this big ordeal.