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#1
06-21-2004, 12:43 PM
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Hasty math.
I'm in a great game. I open raise in EP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I get cold called immediately behind me (GOL) and only the blinds call.
FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Blinds check to me. I bet, GOL raised, the SB called, the BB reraised. You don't know whether GOL will cap. What's the correct decision here? ~stephen 
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#3
06-21-2004, 01:49 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
I don't think the implied odds are very good. If he makes the nuts, any Q will make a straight killing his action from all hands that don't have Q's in them. I think it is close, but I would fold.
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#4
06-21-2004, 04:12 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
You need 10.75:1, but you're getting only 8:1. You have some implied odds, but your opponents can have a nasty redraw, particularly if one of them has 99 or something like that. Not to mention a possible QJ already out there (meaning you might have only 3 outs). I don't think it's wrong to fold here.
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#5
06-21-2004, 05:18 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
Danger, Danger!
Not enough money to warrant the play. Fold and move on. Barron Vangor Toth www.BarronVangorToth.com "You Take 'em Both and Then You Have..."
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#6
06-21-2004, 05:33 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
by my count its 15:2 or 7.5:1 when its to you. if GOL caps you're getting 20:3 effective odds or 6.6666:1. if he only caps 50% or 25% or whatever you weight that accordingly but its clearly between 7.5 and 6.666:1. if not everybody calls the cap then your odds go down even farther. then of course theres lots of redraws...you're clearly up against some sort of hands here, including 2 pair a possible straight (which has no redraws against you), set etc... so you're implied odds, although large, are somewhat mitigated by the redraws on the river since none of those hands will fold, especially since its a "great game."
i don't see anything wrong with folding here stephen. i think you know i would and onto the next hand, see ya soon man. -Barron
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#7
06-21-2004, 05:41 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
If i knew i was getting 8:1 and the player had 99 i'd be calling.
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#8
06-21-2004, 05:54 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
[ QUOTE ]
If i knew i was getting 8:1 and the player had 99 i'd be calling. [/ QUOTE ] you don't know you're getting 8:1. only the best case scenarios result in 8:1 or better. you may be getting LESS than 6.6666:1. further 99 will redraw on you 10/44 (22.72%). when that happens it costs you lots. when you hit you won't make much b/c its an obvious straight on board b/c of the 9. i don't see how this is that good of a situation...its not one of those fallacious "find a better spot" things either as this spot is -EV in my eyes... -Barron
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#9
06-21-2004, 06:01 PM
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Re: Hasty math.
Hey.
I didn't bother to do the math but i'd call if i knew i was getting 8:1 meaning that the only thing that might throw me over to not calling is a great risk of not getting it. You also have positive implied odds against 99 not negative. Since even if you pay off 2 bets when it hits, he's paying off 1 bet when he doesn't it. re: obvious straight, this straight rocks. People can't help but raise T,Q K,Q J,Q (made, yes) when the queens comes. Moreso, if i only had the Q here i'd fold because of the risk you split the pot when you hit.
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