conspiracy theory pt. 1

[riverboatking]

now before you read this...bear with me.

i have noticed a trend on party poker MTT and have been doing a little experimenting.
for the longest time i was playing good solid tourney strategy and nearly every time i was all in i was at least a 2-1 favorite. and i never made the money, i would flop sets and lose to runner runner straights, flushes and boats and i was getting pissed. so many bad beats i was on perma tilt.
so i bought into a 5 dollar MTT (i usually play 30, 50, or 100) and decided to take a different approach.
i made a concerted effort to play dominated hands and longshot draws. i called raises with exactly the types of hands i was used to losing to. i would call raises w/ AJ KQ QJ and of course find myself up against dominating hands AK AQ KK etc.
well wouldn't you know it i finished 8th out of like 200 and with no exaggeration i can say that everytime i was all in i bad beat someone. often times i had only three outs but it didn't matter.
now i would never form conclusions from one example so i have been going back and forth between strategies.
i played my "bad" way four more times and without fail made the top 10% every time!!!! most of the times finishing in the money.
a couple of times i screwed up and actually had the best hand preflop catching someone trying to steal and wouldn't you know it i lost!!!
so tonight i went back to my solid style of play and first hand i played my QQ lost to J9 on a jack high flop when all the money went in.
NotAclue can attest to this cuz he was sitting right next to me at the time. i asked him how he would play it and he responded in perfect form: "not a clue"
anyways i know bad beats happen and i hope you take this with a grain of salt but i was wondering if any of you have experienced this and if you feel like having some fun try out my system on a five dollar MTT and see what happens.

[Dentist]

So, the worse you play, the better you do...

Interesting, so do you muck things like AA and KK pre-flop to avoid any "advantage"?

why even play things like AJ and KQ, there are a lot of yummy hand combinations like 10 2 suited that I have seen win good pots...

Why mess with a potential advantage, when you can guarantee yourself a disadvantage with monsters like 3 2 off, or 7 2?

Take this system to an ARTFORM!

[Smasharoo]

Your play was very...what's the word I'm looking for. Creative!

[SossMan]

Hey, use whatever strategy works for you, man!! good luck!!

Soooooo....what times do you usually play on party??

[Cry Me A River]

When you make longshot bets, sometimes they will actually come in. And when they do, they will often bring with them a big payoff (by bad beating someone). Do this a couple times in a tournament and you may well wind up with enough chips to place well.

However, in the long run you're going to be in trouble!

In addition, I have to ask you how well you're keeping track (notes) of your experiment? A big part of the reason why people believe in psychics is because they remember the 1 correct guess but forget the 50 incorrect guesses. Are you only remembering the times your lonshots paid off and forgetting all the other times they didn't? Or are you only playing some longshots and not others - namely those which have better pot odds and implied odds - (even if you're not doing this consciously - so you're not really playing badly, you've just loosened up a little which can be a decent strategy in a fishy tournament)

And when you play "good" are you really playing "good" or do you just think you're playing good? (ie: Are you playing too tight or too lose for your table? Or it sounds like you may be playing too loose after the flop and chasing too much? Are you going all-in and/or calling all-in's too frequently?)

That is, how tightly controlled is your "experiment"?

[Dentist]

actually, I think riverboat has it right.

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!

This makes 4 out of my last 4 tournaments that i've been knocked out by 3-outers...

The guy who caught the 3 outer ended up doing decent.

I should've folded that favorite pre-flop..

New strategy.. Push in every hand and see what happens.
You can't get bad beated if you always go in as the dog!

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are so unbelievably wrong it's not funny

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

Your numbers are so unbelievably wrong it's not funny

[/ QUOTE ]

Feel free to correct them.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I just had my KK get beat my AK when an ace flopped.

The underdog won!!!


[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop KK is a 26.84% winner while AK is an 18.70% winner so it's not exactly a huge underdog. It's gonna happen pretty regularly.

The real question is who went all-in, who called and from what positions? Pre-flop all-ins are always a gamble with so many cards to come and so many ways for a big hand to get broken. How many pocket rocket sob stories have you heard?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're right on. Keep mucking those hands that can so easliy be broken. I'm sure you're just catching bad cards, it will turn around soon. Sorry, what was your name at party again? I could sit and play at the same table and we could go over hands at the end of the session here at 2+2. Could be beneficial to my bnkrll...uh i mean <font color="blue"> your</font> game [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].