I need help coping.

[MyNameIsMud]

I find myself in a position I am ill equiped to deal with. A few weeks ago I began to suspect party poker flop deals have become bias against me. Please read the post before flamimg me.


Some background on the current situation;

I had lost my data on my laptop and did not have enough hand histories to prove anything, and I still do not.

After completing 33K hands I checked the flop history for the types of hands I suspected were bias, what I found was, what I considered to be, an incredible shortfall where feared I would (shortage of flopped sets and pairs on the flop with AK and AQ) Pairs and flopped sets were off about 15% from expected after about 2200 total flops.

From what I have learned of standard deviation, there is less that a 1.5% chance of running this bad for this long.

However, there was a problem, as I had not fully developed my hypothesis before I began the 33K hands, that came midway through the run.

This in mind I have begun an attempt to play another 30-50K hands and look at those results exlusively.

Those of you who think I am crazy, flame me now.

For those of you who are still reading, and havent called the poker police, this is where I am at:

7000 Hands into the trial. Results so far:

Flopped sets are down to 19/221 (8.6%)
Pair or better on flop AK, AQ 25/146 (21%)

I am not asking anyone to tell me im not crazy, or that I am, What I seek is help in dealing with this mind boggling trend (I actually found myself literally banging my head against a wall).

I am looking at the hands a couple thousand at a time, and I have yet to see a block of hands where these numbers are not far less than they should be.

I am having more and more trouble beleiving that I am not being cheated, and am increasingly upset at the worsening trend. And I am unable to come to terms with it.

I am at 40K hands now, faced with a mind-numbing run of cards, and at the end of my rope. I must know the answer and can not give up intil I have played enough hands to prove one way or the other. I do not know if I can do this.

As a side note, I am still making money, just much less than I am used to, and constantly fight the urge to cash out of party and play only poker stars, where I am not experiencing the same results.

more detailed stats can be found under the probability forum.

-MyNameIsMud

[prairieboy]

60,000 party poker players
*1.5% chance of running this badly
= 900 players who are experiencing the exact same thing

You're not being cheated, you're just at the ugly end of the bell curve.

[george w of poker]

tell the voices that you don't want to play on poker stars because the players on party are much worse

[donkeyradish]

Someone has to be unlucky, just as someone has to win a bad beat jackpot. Its 2 ends of the scale.

I can see you aren't convinced by the math, so think of it this way instead:

1) There is absolutely no motivation at all for Party Poker to single out your account for bad cards. The money they make is not dependent on whether you win or not.

2) They want your business, why would they go out of their way to make a customer dissatisfied?

3) How on earth would they rig the deals anyway? They would have to go to some extraordinary lengths to make the software do that. They don't know what table you are going to sit at or in which chair, or when you will show up. Its really quite unfeasible.

4) There is no mathematical reason for your bad run to continue. You are in a mode where you are expecting to get bad cards. But your chance of flopping 3 of a kind today is just the same now as it always has been.

[StellarWind]

Prarieboy is exactly right. It would be astonishing if at any given time a few of Party's numerous players were not experiencing runs as bad as yours. Should we devote space in this forum to hearing every one of those players out? There wouldn't be much time left.

Unless you are sleeping with the wife of the software support manager, I can't imagine why Party would risk their entire business by cooking the cards you are dealt.

[ QUOTE ]
I am still making money, just much less than I am used to

[/ QUOTE ]

I can assure you if you were sleeping with my wife [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img], you would not only be losing heavily but there would be no trace of my handiwork in your PokerTracker stats. Just an occasional strong but second-best hand that costs you a pile of chips.

Very seriously, stop playing at Party. Whether you realize it or not, you are in no reasonable psychological state to be playing poker. At this point I would say that even if I knew you were right about the house cheating. It's gotten inside your head and you can't possibly play properly.

I think you know this. Otherwise you'd be telling your story in the Zoo instead of Psychology. Play at Stars if you trust them.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
3) How on earth would they rig the deals anyway? They would have to go to some extraordinary lengths to make the software do that. They don't know what table you are going to sit at or in which chair, or when you will show up. Its really quite unfeasible.

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate to give the conspiracy theorists more ammunition, but I assure you it's not technically difficult to design software that cheats against specific players.

[Aloysius]

I don't necessarily agree that there's "no motivation" for a poker site to single out a player and give him an unfavorable (statistically) run of cards.

Creating losers create winners, and while that seems like a net-net effect, if the losers are hardcore addicts (and long-time members of the site), and the winners are beginning gamblers on the fence about repeating their play, then it's a positive net gain for a poker site. (Assuming the losers are loyal to the site for reasons other than success, e.g. interface, other players, past success etc.)

The risk the site runs is losing someone (who is being targeted to suffer a bad run of cards) who is paying close attention to his deviation from the norm. But really, how many people do that?

[donkeyradish]

Sorry I don't understand that at all, are you saying that in order to make the site attractive to novice (or 'new') players they could secretly be giving accomplished (or 'old') players an invisible handicap, thereby giving new players a better initial experience so they will encourage all their friends to join?

And since I only started playing at Party Poker a couple of weeks ago, I should "enjoy it while it lasts"? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[MyNameIsMud]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone has to be unlucky, just as someone has to win a bad beat jackpot. Its 2 ends of the scale.

I can see you aren't convinced by the math, so think of it this way instead:

1) There is absolutely no motivation at all for Party Poker to single out your account for bad cards. The money they make is not dependent on whether you win or not.

2) They want your business, why would they go out of their way to make a customer dissatisfied?

3) How on earth would they rig the deals anyway? They would have to go to some extraordinary lengths to make the software do that. They don't know what table you are going to sit at or in which chair, or when you will show up. Its really quite unfeasible.

4) There is no mathematical reason for your bad run to continue. You are in a mode where you are expecting to get bad cards. But your chance of flopping 3 of a kind today is just the same now as it always has been.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, I am not yet convinced of anything based on the math, either way.

1. There is plenty of motivation for party to Bias the deal, first, 100 players like me will beat the site for between 10-20 milion/yr. Second, party doess not just make money on the rake, if you have $1000 party does not have a stack of 10 100 dollar bills on a shelf for you, they have your money invested, that means they are making profit on your account balance alone.

2. Why would they want my business? First, pro's are not supposed to play on Party, second, all I do is cash out.

3. How would they rig the deal to produce this effect? Easy, skip 75 flop cards over the course of 2500 flops. The logic is actually quite simple. To arrange an unusual number of drawouts,on the other hand, would be very difficult indeed.

4. This is why the last 8K hands now are bothering me, as I have been watching very colsely.

I dont mean to sound like the resident loony, but what it comes down to is this: I do not understand what is happening. If I simply couldn't win anymore, I would look to myself for the answer.

And for those that say I am not in a god frame of mind for poker right now, that much is quite certain.

There are 2 reasons I made this series of posts.

1. To solicite as much mathematical and psychological help as I can, to understand.

2. To prove once and for all, one way or the other. This is a much discussed topic, and I have never found any proof one way or the other.

At the very least maybe I will learn something about the devastaing psychological effect of statistical variance. If I am to continue to play poker full time, then perhaps I am in the midst of learning a important lesson.


-MyNameIsMud

[BeerMoney]

The people who don't feel you are cheated also aren't getting your cards. I noticed I was never flopping sets too. I started to keep track of it. I was way below the expected amount. It flat out sucked. When you're not flopping sets and your big cards are whiffing, it seems like it is impossible to win. All I can say is hang in there, and things will turn around.

Good Luck,
BeerMoney