Semi bluff turn/ River Bluff - +EV or burning chips?

DpR · #1 06-17-2004, 10:53 PM

I think I should have bet out on the flop here, but given that I didnt I try the semi bluff on the turn with the scare card, unforuntley get called so I try again on the river. Is this too expensive a play to be +EV ? It has worked of course, but not sure if it works enough....

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets[/color

Final Pot: 11.20 BB
Main Pot: 11.20 BB, between Hero and Button.

Fnord · #2 06-17-2004, 11:01 PM

Why check-raise the turn instead of betting into him?

DpR · #3 06-17-2004, 11:07 PM

that is certainly another option....easier to call down i think for him, but less costly for me.

Fnord · #4 06-17-2004, 11:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
that is certainly another option....easier to call down i think for him, but less costly for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Either way it's 2BB to call it down. By check-raising you're giving him a bigger pot (and hence more incentive) to do so.

DpR · #5 06-18-2004, 12:05 AM

well I get more nervous with the check raise (obviously depending on my holding). When I get bet into here it confuses me a little and I seem to think bluff a little more and call down.

I agree if he is drawing there is no way he is folding to my check raise - that is why i follow through with the river bet.

I think your suggestion may work just as well though and could save me a BB. I will definitley try it that way.

sthief09 · #6 06-18-2004, 01:19 AM

wait, so you wouldn't raise any of the hands I listed, yet you raise KTs after 1 limper in EMP? I wouldn't even make that raise [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

and with no overcards in a really small pot, I don't think this is really worth it. it'll work reasonably often, since the A is an obviously scary card, and he bet in last position on the flop (if I was going to check-raise I might've even done it on the flop).

but look at it this way. the pot is 5.2 BB. you're throwing 2 BB at the pot in hopes that he folds. if he calls the turn and folds the river, you'll have gotten 6.2 BB for an investment of 2. it'll have to work 25% of the time. but then keep in mind that the times he folds on the river are the times he missed a draw. if he has a flush draw or OESD he'll hit about 20% of the time, so I jsut don't see this as worth it.

if you wanted an alternative, you could've called the turn, then check-raised the river if a blank hit, hoping that your opponent has a draw.

sthief09 · #7 06-18-2004, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why check-raise the turn instead of betting into him?

[/ QUOTE ]

check-raising someone is a lot more forceful than just betting into him. [censored], when he c/r'ed the turn, I though he had aces-up and he only had king-high.

DpR · #8 06-18-2004, 01:30 AM

I knew I would get a comment on the flop raise, lol. I actually usually don't make that raise, but I have been looking/experimenting with some new raises since as I mentioned in your thread I only raise 7.5%.

That said, I think you have a good point re: size of pot. I havent been considering that as much as I should when I make this play since I am just trying to figure out a way to win it. The results of this hand suggest I should try it much less since I got called down by 77!! If it doesnt work against that hand I am not sure what it will work against.

Thanks for the comments...

me454555 · #9 06-18-2004, 01:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I knew I would get a comment on the flop raise, lol. I actually usually don't make that raise, but I have been looking/experimenting with some new raises since as I mentioned in your thread I only raise 7.5%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only 7.5%?!?! I'm somewhere around that and it seems to work out fine.

sthief09 · #10 06-18-2004, 01:42 AM

one of the most important requirements for a bluff is having a read on the player, and unfortunately that's difficult to do online while multi-tabling unless you have PT notes on the guy already. you could be check-raising a guy who only bets the nuts, or a guy that never folds.