Playing NL at the Palms and this happens...

TakeMeToTheRiver · #1 06-16-2004, 04:12 PM

My first significant NL experience at a B&M this weekend... playing at a full table... Blinds are 2/5 and max buy-in is $500. My stack is between $600 and $700.

I am dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the button. There are four limpers and I limp along. BB raises to $15, everyone calls and I call...

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

The hand is checked around to MP with a stack of $500 or so and he goes all-in. This player is loose and not very talented (from what I have observed). It is folded around to me and the only one left to act after me is the BB with a stack of slightly over $100.

What do I do? (Feel free to critique my pre-flop call as well, as I am sure you will...)

fourgapper · #2 06-16-2004, 04:28 PM

I would fold. You've only put $15 in the pot and
your kicker's no good. I suspect he has a made hand,
TPTK, TPGK, a set or 2 pair (if he's as loose as you
say). He might be drawing at the nut flush AQh, AJh.
K3 suited or not, is auto-muck for me preflop
-- how many flops would you want to play with that
holding?

4gapper

SkippingGoat · #3 06-16-2004, 04:45 PM

I'll assume your opponent pushed $500 into a $75 pot. Since this is simply a call or fold situation, it lends itself to mathematical analysis.

1) If he has a set (and decided to push rather than let people draw against him) you'll win $575 30% of the time and lose $500 %70 of the time.
EV = -$177.5

2) If your opponent is on two pair (K7) then he'll take it down 64% of the time.
EV = -$113

3) A stronger king?
EV = -$5.5

3) If he's on the nut flush draw? Now you're 60%.
EV = +$145

4) A lower flush draw?
EV = +$520

If you think all these scenarios are equally likely then calling is +$70 EV. If you think this guy is on a draw you're better, if you think he has a made hand then your EV is in the red. This is when knowledge of your opponent is of crutial importance. Has he pushed draws before? Does he play big hands slowly even in the face of draws? Ultimately, it's hard to put him on two pair and playing a strong king this way is somewhat unusual. I'd probably hope that he just read the Super System, call, and make him show you the set.

gergery · #4 06-16-2004, 04:54 PM

You go all-in.

First, I think K3 suited is an iffy call. I only play Ax in late position with lots of limpers and unraised pot and not too aggressive table. Kx is weaker than that, and can almost never be the nuts. The problem with limping with it is exactly what happened here: raised preflop so you’ve put in $20 and then raised hard on the flop so you can’t draw cheap. It’s not a terrible play with a loose relatively passive table (and with 5 seeing the flop this is certainly a loose table), but not a great play either.

If you are going to play Kx, this flop is pretty darn good with top pair and the flush draw with no straight draws and only one high card. It doesn’t get much better as a made draw would scare others away, and two pair is a rare flop to get. So if you are going to fold this, you really need to ask why you’re playing it to begin with.

The BB’s raise was only a sweetener. Just $10 into a $30 pot, everyone is only risking $10 to win $40, so he should expect a lot of callers. So he doesn’t have a big hand, he has a multiway hand like a middle pair, ATs, or 87s.

MP’s limp/call preflop means no big hand. With the all-in way overbetting a $120 pot to $500 he can’t have a great hand. He doesn’t want callers, but might be ok if he gets one. It smells to me most like Ax hearts on a semibluff. Maybe KQ, 99, A7 trying to buy it.

You have 14 outs to improve, and may have the best hand now. With pot odds, you only need ~12 outs to make a call correct meaning you should call TPTK, Axs, or middle pair, and are even not a terrible underdog to trips (2.2 : 1 ). So you must bet. And you should go all in to scare out the BB, who might fold TP with better kicker here.

-Greg

TakeMeToTheRiver · #5 06-16-2004, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll assume your opponent pushed $500 into a $75 pot. Since this is simply a call or fold situation, it lends itself to mathematical analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well thanks for that analysis... my poker skills are not developed enough to make those calculations (even roughly) while at the table. I found it difficult to put him on any hand over any other, but I leaned towards either a K (with a better kicker than mine) or a nut flush draw. I thought about it for at least two minutes and folded.

As it turns out, the small stack BB called with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or something stupid like that). And the original better showed K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]...

A heart came on the turn and a rag on the end... so it was the right move given his hand, but it would have turned out well if I had stayed in.

Chuck

P.S. Can you point me to a good thread/tutorial on calculating these E.V.s... in my past life I had strong math skills and I hope I can draw on those dormant abilities to help my poker game.

P.P.S. Not sure if it was beginner's luck (at least B&M beginner), or my play online, or the fish, or my reading of 2+2 and books, but I did very well in these NL games over the course of four nights at the Palms (Thursday through Sunday) -- the above hand not withstanding.

Acesover8s · #6 06-16-2004, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You've only put $15 in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

This is inconsequential.

TakeMeToTheRiver · #7 06-16-2004, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You go all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

As you can see from the results I posted, I should have gone all in (at least in hindsight). Your reads were pretty good, but gave the bad guys slightly more credit than they deserved.

The Pre-Flop raiser and Mr. All-in had A9o and KTo, respectively. Although, an all-in by me against the BB meant nothing because he was a very small stack compared to the other all-in (I outstacked both of them).

I calculated 12 outs (9 hearts and 3 threes) and did not call... with the extra $100+ from the BB (who I expected to fold), I think I would have made the call... but who knows... rationality was not my strength at the moment.

TakeMeToTheRiver · #8 06-16-2004, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've only put $15 in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

This is inconsequential.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I did not consider my small investment in the pot when making my decision... I got that much right.

TakeMeToTheRiver · #9 06-16-2004, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
K3 suited or not, is auto-muck for me preflop
-- how many flops would you want to play with that
holding?

[/ QUOTE ]

This was certainly a positional call. On the button and lots of limpers -- I figured I could possibly have the best of it for a minimal call depending on the flop. I was holding my own in post-flop play until this point. I would not play K3s in almost any other position -- and if the raise had come before my initial bet, I would likely have not been in the pot at all.

Pokergod · #10 06-16-2004, 05:39 PM

I would not have called pre-flop because it's not the nut flush draw, and the only two hands I can think I want to flop is k-3-x, or 3-3-x.

I don't think you can call after the flop, because the pot odds are terrible. You have to know you're currently beat, so you have 8 flush cards and 3 threes. Not good enough.

It's these decisions..... I mean you have a great read on the guy for being a weak, bad player, and you're still faced with an impossible call on a very good flop for your hand. I just hate being put to the test for most of your cash when you're not being the aggressor, unless you're purposely trapping. Which, in this case, you're not.

PG