Think I Royally Misread This??

[2283]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 (6 handed)

Button ($31.20)
SB ($11.70)
BB ($32.50)
UTG ($18.90)
Hero ($24.90)
CO ($2.80)

Preflop: Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.75.

in a full game my standard raise is 5-8 times the BB depending on circumstances, since this one was 6 handed i wanted to invite a call. is my raise too small? am i giving small pairs too good of odds to spike a set on me?

Flop: ($2.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $2.1, BB calls $2.10.

Turn: ($6.30) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $10, Hero (quickly) calls $5.

if i was going to fold to an allin bet on the river, should i have just folded here or raised allin myself?

River: ($26.30) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB bets $19.4 (All-In) - i had $10 left.

at this point i ask "which set is it?" before i fold. (is that a crazy leap in logic?)

Final Pot: $45.70

Results:
BB doesn't show.
Outcome: BB wins $45.70.

assuming you just sat down at a .25 BB table and havent seen this player do anything strange, is it reasonable to figure my aces were no good?

i have a lot of confidence (maybe too much) in my reads and i refuse to make crying calls if i strongly believe i am beat, as was the case here.

i think i give players at these stakes too much credit sometimes though, so i want to know if my fold seems overly tight to people.

all in on the turn? if i could do it again, i think that's what i would do.

[SkippingGoat]

A slowplay on the flop followed by a check-raise on the turn? Sounds like a big hand to me. I find it unlikely that a smaller overpair or something like TPTK would simply call the flop, then checkraise the the turn. These hands are simply not strong enough to slowplay and I think even relatively inexperienced players realize this.

As for your preflop raise, 4xBB isn't crazy but if players routinely call more with halfway decent hands I'd push your bullets a little harder.

As for the call on the turn, I think that if you've decided to commit all your chips to the pot regardless of what falls on the river you might as well push there. If your opponent is weak you don't give him a chance to suck out on you (or at least make it expensive for him to do so). If he's strong then he's going all in on the river anyway. A fold in this situation, however, would be a very reasobable, if not prudent, play.

[AnyutaDva]

In small stakes ( IE buy-in $100 or less ) NL I find the limit raise/check raise to be the biggest tell going. It is almost invariably a minimum of two pair, and in the hand you described could even be a set or a straight. I would have folded on the turn.

[Zag]

I'm with AnyutaDva. Unless you have seen this player bluff with this pattern (Call a raise preflop, check-call the flop, check-raise the turn) multiple times, let it go on the turn. He could easily have 9T and thinks he is ahead of your AK, but avoiding traps does mean that you occasionally get pushed off of pots when you are ahead. If you are going to be pushed off, you want it to happen earlier rather than later.

On the river, you have to call $10 to win $35. Game theory has you calling about 3/4 of the time, unless you feel he bluffs a game-theory incorrect amount of the time. In reality, I think that he is very unlikely to be bluffing, here, due to your quick turn call and the general structure of the hand. I would call about 1/6 of the time (using the second hand of my watch to randomize -- if it is between 12 and 2, I call). For some players, I would never call here, but I would have folded the turn against those players.

Your preflop raise was fine, only if that is the same raise you would make with AJ or 99. (Six-handed, AJ is a raising hand when first in, IMHO. Substitute AK if you disagree.) The point is that you give a huge tell if your raises with AA/KK are smaller than those without a big pair. Aware players are looking hard for this tell, since it is so common.

[turnipmonster]

so in PL/NL, there is generally the idea that after a certain point in the hand, the odds that your opponent will bluff + the odds your hand is good exceed the odds being offered by the pot. this is called being pot committed.

when you called the $5 raise on the turn, that is generally going to be a pot committing move. If I was your opponent, and I thought there was a chance you would fold, I would put you allin on the river with literally any holding. anything. A high or the nuts.

look at it this way. say you get 70% of your chips in before the flop. it's almost always a terrible mistake not to stack on the flop. your read is just not going to be good enough times not to get the rest of the money in. The reason I am harping on this is I've been playing a smaller game than usual recently (1/2 blinds), and the biggest mistake I see people making is these ridiculous folds when they should realize they are pot committed.

the best NL players can decide if they're willing to play for all their chips early in the hand, and play a big or small pot accordingly. pot control is a very important aspect of the game.

--turnipmonster

[2283]

[ QUOTE ]
so in PL/NL, there is generally the idea that after a certain point in the hand, the odds that your opponent will bluff + the odds your hand is good exceed the odds being offered by the pot. this is called being pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
when you called the $5 raise on the turn, that is generally going to be a pot committing move. If I was your opponent, and I thought there was a chance you would fold, I would put you allin on the river with literally any holding. anything. A high or the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

since players in my game are generally very loose especially when the pot is already big and i have shown strength, i don't see how a player that i've never played with before would think the chances of me folding are very high.

people just don't make tough folds in my game, it's common knowledge. if he's bluffing, it's because he thought i was bluffing. once i call the turn, can he still think i'm bluffing??

id say the chances that he's bluffing are very, very low, and the chances that he thinks his inferior hand is good are under 20%.

[ QUOTE ]
look at it this way. say you get 70% of your chips in before the flop. it's almost always a terrible mistake not to stack on the flop. your read is just not going to be good enough times not to get the rest of the money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the flop i've had two betting rounds to make a read and have two chances to catch up if im behind. on the river i've had four betting rounds and have no chance to catch a better hand. how does it help to look at it that way?

it's one thing to vaguely say "im pot committed," it's another to believe that i am going to win the hand 25% of the time and call. i don't want to make a second bad call just because i made a first one.

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I am harping on this is I've been playing a smaller game than usual recently (1/2 blinds), and the biggest mistake I see people making is these ridiculous folds when they should realize they are pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you looked at the hand history and figured that even in a generally passive .25 BB game he won't have a hand better than AA close to 80% of the time? i don't understand how you could see it as such a slam dunk.

[ QUOTE ]
the best NL players can decide if they're willing to play for all their chips early in the hand, and play a big or small pot accordingly. pot control is a very important aspect of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm willing to play AA for all my chips if he's checking and calling, not if he's raising and betting. is something wrong with that logic?

tell me how off this line of thinking sounds. at my level, players rarely will fire the second barrel if you don't show hesitation. if he's bluffing or looking for weakness on the turn here, i call it and he's very likely to shut off on the river. if he isn't, he puts it in on the river and i get away.

don't get me wrong, i welcome your criticism, i just don't know if you're taking it that seriously.

[turnipmonster]

I apologize if my post sounded patronizing at all. didn't mean it that way.

I think it is unlikely he is bluffing, but there is a greater than 25% chance he thinks his lower pocket pair is good.

the only way the river fold is good is if you realized the turn call was a horrendous mistake. I am saying this because there is no hand that I would check raise the turn and then check the river with. It's just not something you see very often. so anytime you call a check raise on the turn, think ahead to the river as to what your opponent is probably going to do. after a BB turn checkraise, the answer is almost always put you allin.

personally, if I called the turn my chips are going in, because I don't understand changing your read after no scare card hits and he does what 90% of all turn checkraisers are going to do every single time.

--turnipmonster

[turnipmonster]

here's something I like to think about regarding being pot committed. how much money would you need to have left after the turn checkraise to be pot committed? in other words, at what point is the river an autocall?

--turnipmonster

[theBruiser500]

Turnipmonster, I don't understand your last point, or at least I don't understand why it's helpful to think of things that way.

[turnipmonster]

assume you called the turn checkraise.

there is some amount of money you have left where you no longer have a decision as to whether or not to call with AA in that pot. for instance, if you had a penny left, you would have to call because you are getting huge odds, your hand will be good more than 1 in 360 times here. so, given there is some amount, what is that amount?

basically, it's a roundabout way of asking how often you think your hand is going to be good in this spot. some of the time your opponent is going to have JJ, some of the time he'll have a set. the reason it's a good exercise (for me, anyways) is because it got me into the habit of constantly thinking about my threshold for being pot stuck.

at what point am I committed in a given situation? At what point do I have an autopush or autocall?

a major turning point for me in my game was being able to estimate earlier whether or not I was going to be pot stuck by the turn or river, and play accordingly. I am still working on it, but slowly getting better.

--turnipmonster