Another 10-20 Hand.. Ongoing Saga.. FIFTH street

[CJC]

Continuing on......

In case you haven't been following the two threads below... Here is what has happened so far...

3rd Street Review
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I am forced low with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] )
I bring it in for $3
10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] completes to $10
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes it $20
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] makes it $30
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] cold calls

I decide to cap it at $40 and everyone calls..

Now On to Fourth Street
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ME --7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now the A-10 to my right is High. He checks..
I check (my sevens)
10-2 checks
Q-2 checks
Suited A-6 bets $10
A-10 calls
I RAISE to $20

Eveyone calls the $20.

$304 in pot before we have even reached the big bets..

FIFTH STREET
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ME --K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Now the deuces with the Queen is high...
He bets $20 ( I get such respect [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] )
A-6-9 calls $20
A-10-4 hems/haws/thinks.. throws his cards in the much

I make it $40....

This one I will allow you all to flame away on... but in case anyone actually does like this raise..letme know.. I don't ( in retrospect [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] )

CJ

[Michael Davis]

I think your hand on 5th is well worth a raise.

-Michael

[B-Man]

What was your reason for the raise?

I don't like it because the pot is already big, it is unlikely you are going to get anyone to fold (though it is possible Mr. 10-2-2 will drop--frankly I'm not sure you want him to fold at this point since if you make your hand he may be close to drawing dead to beat you), and you certainly are not in the lead at this point. Deception doesn't have much value at this point--the players are poor, and the pot is already big; it seems highly likely you are going to have to show down a winner to take this pot, you aren't going to steal it.

I'm all for being aggresive (and I agree with your third-street thinking that if a hand is worth 3 bets, it is better to cap it), but I think in this spot calling is clearly the right play.

[MRBAA]

The 5-10 player likes the raise. Most likely hand is queens up, so why not try to get the other guy out so you can increase your chances of winning if you hit kings up, not your flush? There's so much in this pot that it's worth investing more even if it only increases your winning % a bit. Unless you think the queen was rolled and has you crushed, I think the raise is pretty good.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
There's so much in this pot that it's worth investing more even if it only increases your winning % a bit. Unless you think the queen was rolled and has you crushed, I think the raise is pretty good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm all for increasing your chances of winning the pot, but in this case, I don't think a raise will increase CJ's chances of winning because (1) a raise probably isn't going to knock anyone out, and (2) even if it does knock out the player with 10-2-2 (the only player that I think might fold at this point), kings up are probably going to beat that player (2's are dead, and if he has 10's up, he is drawing to the last 10 in the deck for a hand which can beat kings up)(if he has 4 clubs, he isn't folding regardless).

I don't think you want to knock out that player if he has two dead pairs, and I don't think you *can* knock out that player if he has a flush draw, so I don't think this raise will accomplish anything other than put more money into the pot while you are still behind.

You also risk allowing another raise and having to put another bet in when it comes back around.

Call and hope for a spade (or a seven) on sixth street, then you very well may get a chance to raise when you are a big favorite.

[MRBAA]

Yeah, you're probably right. The 10-2-2 hand has damn few outs, although if he has an ace as a hole card along with a 10 he could make aces up with the case ace.

[Gitz]

CJ,

As others have said calling I think is the play. Nobody is going anywhere. I think waiting for 6th street is the play here.

Paul

[mostsmooth]

im gonna guess here that on 5th:
T22 has Ks up w/K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Q22 has Qs up, possibly full, but i dont think so
A69 has 4flush, maybe started split aces, but ill go with the 4 flush
AT4 folded 3 spades
this is all speculation because i dont know these guys, so im probably way off
id call in your spot. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
im gonna guess here that on 5th:
T22 has Ks up w/K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Q22 has Qs up, possibly full, but i dont think so
A69 has 4flush, maybe started split aces, but ill go with the 4 flush
AT4 folded 3 spades
this is all speculation because i dont know these guys, so im probably way off
id call in your spot. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
unless you are sure A69 has only aces, then id raise [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[nef]

The Ac6c9d hand made it 30 on third street. Would he do this with just clubs? If so then you probably shouldn't raise here because there is probably a better draw out there. IF you think this guy only would make it $30 with a big pair then the raise is good. You are the money favorite over the dead hands.

It appears you are up against Quwwns up, Tnes up, and a club draw. If the Ac6c is more likely to have Aces then its a good raise.