Do YOU call this all-in based on the read?

[DougBrennan]

The usual, Stars $11 rebuy--the tourney that is rapidly approaching it own forum status [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. We are in the third hour, blinds are 600/1200 100? ante. I have been hovering around the 17000-20000 mark for an hour, falling further behind the mean total with each passing orbit. A player that I had played the first 90 minutes with is moved to our table, 3 seats to my left, and this is good for me, as I have a very specific read on him. The read is as follows: pre-flop with a fair amount of money in the pot, either from several limpers or one raise, this player went all-in. A lot. I had seen him do it a minimum of 6 times, and the one time he was called he showed something along the lines of K6s. So I was waiting for him.

I get dealt 88 in EP and open raised to 3600. One caller, and right on cue Mr. All-in obliges, going all-in with a stack slightly larger than mine. I "know" this is a move on his part, and I push, about 16000 to call a pot of about 24000. First caller folds, it's me and my buddy,

Hands are revealed and I am happy to see he has K9s. But he wins the coinflip, drawing a K on the flop, and then a 9 on the river just to be annoying, and I would have had to go home if I had not already been there.

While I did not really regret the call, I later began to wonder just how wise it was, even given the read I had. On the one hand, it was getting close to the time I had to do something, and winning that 40000+ pot would have put me in nice position.

On the other hand, it does seem like I volunteered for a probable coin-flip at best situation before I had to. Even given my read, it was likely he had at least one overcard, and two was more likely. In addition, it was not impossible he had an actual hand. There was, of course, also the matter of the other caller, who got out of the way.

So my question, obviously, is, given my read, do you call this all-in with 88?
Thanks for any thoughts you might have.

Doug

As I typed and proofed this post I thought it more and more unlikely that this was a good call on my part, so let 'er rip.

[Che]

Doug-

I'm no expert, but I like the call IF you're very confident the first caller will fold. I think most reasonable players will fold in this case so I like it in general. If the caller is loose-passive enough to be likely to call the two allins, I don't like it since you're probably up against 3 overcards (or worse off than that). Of course, you're getting great pot odds for the 3-way, but I'm not sure it's enough to make it worthwhile (sorry, too lazy to do any mathematical estimates today).

Why I like the call if the other guy folds:

If he's raising with the frequency you mention, he'll probably do it with any pair so it's a tossup as to whether you'll be a big favorite or a big dog if he happens to have a pair.

However, most of the time you'll be up against 2 overcards so you'll be a 5:4 favorite getting 4:3 odds.

Add in the remote possibility of catching him with another K6 and that clinches it IMHO.

Sorry it didn't work out this time.

Later,
Che

[Ritter]

I think it was probably a fold given your arguments...

Also, unless you know the player well, there's the possibility that he's someone who plays very loose early to build up chips and than tightens up - people CAN change gears in the same tourney.

If he had been in front of you and raised 3xBB, would you have re-raised all-in?

Trying to get better a hand at a time.

Peace,

Ritter

[davidross]

I'm undecided. No doubt your desire to use your read on this guy clouded your thinking somewhat, but since you know he's going to keep doing this, what hand do you want when he does it? You might wait for ever to get AA or KK, and his willingness to put his destiny on the line means when you make the first raise you better be prepared to call his all-in. I like the call, you are probably a favorite getting better than even odds.

[DougBrennan]

No, if he had been in front of me with an open-raise I would not have pushed. His action was very specific, push all-in with a fair amount of pre-flop money in the pot, but not with anyone pot committed. And I had seen him do this lots after the rebuy.

I had no qualms about the accuracy of my read, just thoughts that I should have waited until I had him more dead-to-rights.

I was looking so hard for this situation to come up that I think I pulled the trigger too early. But it was surely the right target. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Doug

[Chief911]

I have to disagree. You want to catch him, yes. But with 88? Dont you feel like you are a better player than he is? Why would you want to put all your chips on the line i what at best could be a coin toss, at worse he could have you dominated with a higher PP. Remember that even bad players get good hands.

That said, if you told me he had K9 vs my 88, I would fold. If you are a better player, than you're better off waiting til he does that again, when you have AK, or a much higher pocket pair.

Just my opinion, but no way am I giving a pusher a coinflip.

Nick

[cferejohn]

Having run into such players in the past, I have something of a 'rule' for calling them:

Pocket 9's/AQ or better.

I'm not going to say I stick to this rule absolutely no matter what, but that's my general guideline, and it's worked pretty well. Lower pairs just give too good of a chance of two overcards (like here), and you are only a small favorite. Granted, you are getting a bit better than 1:1, but that's the kind of odds I'm OK passing up (especially as the caller).

All that said, your call wasn't terrible, but I think that you have to expect you're going to be in a coin flip when you call with a pair that low.

[Che]

Chief-

[ QUOTE ]
Dont you feel like you are a better player than he is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely. But I'm not so good that I can pass up being a 53/47 favorite getting 3:2 odds when I'm shortstacked. (In the situation in the posted hand, our hero will have only 8xBB after the next blind increase if he folds this.)

I would fold 88 to a reasonable player in this situation and I would even fold it to an unreasonable player if I had a well above average stack, but you have to make a move when you get short and this looks like an opportune time to me.

[ QUOTE ]
If you are a better player, than you're better off waiting til he does that again, when you have AK, or a much higher pocket pair.


[/ QUOTE ]

You'll rarely get this dream situation against these push-happy maniacs so you need to drop your standards a little IMHO. Even if you're not willing to do 88, I think cferejohn's standards (99, AQ, or better) are certainly reasonable and we're only one rank over the line here so I don't see why the call is so bad.

But I'm way outnumbered on this one so I guess I'm just too weak-loose. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

BTW I would probably fold 77 here so I understand that the call is borderline at best. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm just trying to make the point that you can't wait for perfect situations as a short stack - especially when there's a maniac at your table.

Later,
Che

[Squirrel]

If I'm pretty sure the caller will fold, and it's at the point in the tourney where I don't mind playing a "coin-flip" getting much better than even money, yeah I call.