When to value bet flush and open-ended straight draws?

[chson]

Regardless of position, when should you value bet/raise when you flop a flush draw or OESD? I'm assuming it's generally correct to do so when there's 4-5 players in the hand (since the odds of catching are 4-5:1?

Also

[Piiop]

You should never do something regardless of position.

If an EP player bets and there are 2 or more callers to you in LP, you should raise your draw. Not only because you will be winning a larger percent of the time, but to buy a free card. Also, if you're in a blind and an EP player bets, you should check-raise. This probably won't buy you a free card, but will get bets in the pot.

However, if the player to your immediate right bets you should not raise. This will drive out all the players that would be calling, which you don't want.

Usually, 3 opponents is enough - but it depends on the draw and the situation.

[flexus]

when you flop an open end str8 or flush draw you are approximately a 2-1 dog to make it by the river, so you can valuebet against at least two opponents on the flop. In multiway pots str8 and flush draws should often be checkraised to maximize the ammount of bets every player puts in. If you have to draw again on the turn you usually cant valuebet the draw anymore. On the turn you are slightly less than 1-5 underdog to make the draw on the river, so you need at least five opponents to make it profitable. As this is very rare, draws should usually be played passively on the turn.

[Bill Smith]

It looked like you were going to add to your post, but I'll open with a comment anyway. Let's see what I relearn in the last 10 minutes from chief444.

When you have a flush draw, your odds to catch your flush on the next 2 cards are 1.9:1, so you want to bet if you think at least 2 people will call. Keep in mind that if there's already enough money in the pot (and there usually is with 5 people) you will certainly see the river.

If you're raised, the same applies - if at least 2 people have called that raise, you might consider 3-betting, especially if you have the nut flush draw. In either case, check-call the turn unless you caught the flush (generally).

OESD odds are 2.2:1, so you need 3 people to call to make betting the flop worthwhile, assuming your hand is good if the straight is filled. As such, most people prefer to check-call the flop and turn with OESD unless a few people (I prefer 4-5) have cold-called a bet and are trapped in should you raise.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see what I relearn in the last 10 minutes from chief444.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL. I should have added in below Bill that there are times I will bet with just a flush draw on the turn. So I didn't even mean to disagree that the bet would have been bad. But if I feel there is a good chance it will check through or if I can take the free river, I normally will check. If I'm fairly sure I will end up calling one anyway but won't be raised if I bet then I probably just bet out. Obviously if there is a reasonable chance that you can win right there with a bet then bet away (but this is rarely the case at low-limit).

I think your advice to this post is a very good general response to a very general question. I'll just add that I will play my draws far more aggressive if they include overcards. I will often raise a bet from my immediate right if I have a flush or OESD and two overcards. If you still get a few callers it is good value but if it ends up heads-up or three-way you're overcard outs now have a much better chance of holding up when you catch one.

[Bill Smith]

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If I'm fairly sure I will end up calling one anyway but won't be raised if I bet then I probably just bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this was the bad assumption I made in that thread. I couldn't imagine he could check that through from the 2nd position, but you're correct that it is bad to use that as an excuse to make what could be a -EV bet.

[chson]

Hi Bill.

How many players do you need to value bet on the TURN? Shouldn't it also be 2-3 players since the odds of hitting your straight/flush are (1.9-2.2 : 1)?

[chief444]

Odds with one card to come are:
4.11:1 for a flush (9 cards of 46 unseen)
4.75:1 for a OESD (8 cards of 46 unseen)

So you want 5 or more callers for this to be +EV. The 1.9-2.2:1 is with two cards to come. This is why you often ram&jam good draws on the flop but usually want to see the river for as little as possible when you miss on the turn.

[Bill Smith]

Once you're on the turn, your odds of hitting those draws are between 4:1 and 5:1. Essentially, think 8 outs for an OESD and 9 outs for a FD. So, it is usually best to check-call if you don't hit your draw on the turn.

I know it seems kind of strange that you would bet the flop assuming 2:1 odds when you often need to pay again on the turn to see the last card, but it is valid if the pot odds would have you calling down to the river anyway, and it doesn't hurt if you think a bet/raise will buy you a free card.

Here's an optimal example: You're Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with 4 others and a $2.50 pot. The flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], SB bets and all 3 call. With all 4 people trapped in, and a pot that would easily justify a call based on the pot odds not just here but on the turn as well, I would value raise this all day long. The worst case scenario is that SB reraises and knocks out 2 or 3 people, at which point you're a call monkey until the river. Furthermore, if the turn comes with a rag, your raise and position may buy you a free look at the river.

To summarize, a value bet/raise is generally valid when:

- You can be relatively sure your outs are good (which is usually the case with FD or OESD)
- You can be relatively sure at least 2 (preferably 3) people will call
- The pot size justifies you seeing the river most of the time

There may be other factors, such as position and the table's aggressiveness level, but hopefully that gives you some insight.

[chson]

Thanks chief and Bill. I recently just won some massive 15BB+ pots due to your advice.