Party 15/30 - AJs

Sully · #1 06-14-2004, 10:26 AM

I'm curious as to what you think about my play on this hand. After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

I don't really think that is the case on this hand, but I'm curious what you think about the play here, especially my bet on the turn. I could have taken a free card, but I felt I had a good chance to win the pot right there, and if I was called, I likely had 14 outs (correct?). Also, your thoguhts on the river bet...too aggressive to hope your up against a missed draw and take another shot at the pot, or is this the time to check and go home?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.66 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Turn: (6.83 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8.83 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 10.83 BB
Main Pot: 10.83 BB, between BB and Hero. > Pot won by BB (10.83 BB).

Results in white below: 
BB shows Jd Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero shows As Js (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 10.83 BB.

astroglide · #2 06-14-2004, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

[/ QUOTE ]

have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

exist · #3 06-14-2004, 11:06 AM

i don't think you should reraise preflop unless you have a specific read against UTG+1.

on the flop i like your raise.

on the turn i think a bet is quite reasonable because:
1. you have around 15 outs.
2. the BB may have been betting a draw on the flop and you are actually betting the best hand.
3. the BB may fold a better hand like a pair of 2's or 6's or an underpair.
4. IF your opponent does not have a high propensity for check raising the turn.
5. you can get a free showdown with a hand that will sometimes be best.

however, if your opponent is not likely to semi-bluff a draw on the flop, a bet on the turn is much less likely to be correct and you should probably take the free card since the chance of you having the best hand is zero. so, an important question here is "how does your opponent play?"

on the river, a bet is unlikely to make him fold ANY hand he called you with on the turn except for a busted draw (which you already beat). the only time a bet is correct is when:
1. your opponent was on a draw.
2. the river card paired him.
3. your bet will make him fold.

i consider this parlay unlikely. you should check and hope he was on a draw that missed and your Ace high is good.

Sully · #4 06-14-2004, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about this...I've had AJs about 24 times, with a win % of just under 30%..certainly need a much larger sample size to draw anything meaningful, but it is definitely the type of hand I want to address, because it could certainly help my play with similar hands.

DcifrThs · #5 06-14-2004, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, J.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

why look past where the problem lies? you are wondering about taking AJs too far when you miss...how about playing it when you should not!! your leak with ajs over 7000 hands is clearly preflop. i think being dealt 7000 AJ suiteds is a good base from which to draw a conclusion...that conclusion is that you likely overplay that hand...fold it to a UTG+1 raise. what hands to you want him to have to which you are a favorite??

next hand...over your NEXT 7000 deals of AJs watch what happens when you stop investing so much money as a dog preflop to early raises.

-Barron

Sully · #6 06-14-2004, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think you should reraise preflop unless you have a specific read against UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is another area where I have some confusion. At some point, I convinced myself that cold calling is only very rarely a good idea. Therefore, when in doubt, I usually reraise. What are the circumstances that determine that a cold call is the correct play?

Also, thanks for the other analysis, especially regarding the river...I definitely think I could save some bets at the end with a hand like this by playing it a bit more passively.

DcifrThs · #7 06-14-2004, 12:38 PM

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I've had AJs about 24 times, with a win % of just under 30%...

[/ QUOTE ]

HOLY ****. i really misread your post...i thought you had 7000 AJs hands dealt to you..

24!?!?!? come back when you have a few orders of magnitude more than that lol.

-Barron

DcifrThs · #8 06-14-2004, 12:39 PM

try when in doubt fold!

then realize that an early position raise gives you cause to fold most any hand other than your very best ones, with which you should reraise...ajs isnot one of your very best hands.

-Barron

Sully · #9 06-14-2004, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

HOLY ****. i really misread your post...i thought you had 7000 AJs hands dealt to you..

24!?!?!? come back when you have a few orders of magnitude more than that lol.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Barron;

It might take me a few years for that...I'm still keeping the day job for now.

Thanks for the input. I always give early raises a lot of respect, but this is the type of hand I usually stay in with. Looks like it's time to rethink that. I currently voluntarily put money in the pot around 18% - hard to believe that I'm playing too loose...maybe I just need to rethink my starting selection.

DcifrThs · #10 06-14-2004, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
hard to believe that I'm playing too loose...maybe I just need to rethink my starting selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

you MAY be playing too LOOSE in some spots and too TIGHT in others....i.e. reraising w/ ajs vs. UTG+1 raise= too loose.

folding J8s on the button after 4 limpers= too tight. if you forsake the former for the latter then you're in good shape (fold AJs, call with J8s in those positions as given)

also, i see sooooooo many people concentrating on preflop hand selection...the turn is where the money is.

-Barron