Tricky turn?

[7Dave]

Online 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

The info I know here is that MP1 is (from what I've seen during other sessions) very good. No particular info on the other guys, but no one seems out of line. I was figuring what do to on the turn. The button could have a made hand or a draw. Bet the turn (if he calls I'm probably good, if he raises it might drive out some of other drawing hands) or just check-call (assuming he bets) and hope for another KQ?

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks...

Any thoughts? I lean on betting...

/d

[risen]

I would have liked to see a Flop 3 bet, this is a draw heavy board but you are likely ahead right now and even if not, you have hella (well 4) outs.

But on to the question, bet out, and hope the button raises you to get this head up. A check through would hurt quite a bit. In this situation I'm not sure a 3 bet will accomplish much so I'd call with the intention of betting out any river that doesn't put a 4 straight out there.

[PokerHund]

Bet!! You very likely have the best hand and you can't afford to give freecards to anybody holding 2 hearts or any other kind of draw. Any 9 T J A or h on the river means trouble but you must make them pay.

[lil feller]

"I would have liked to see a Flop 3 bet, this is a draw heavy board"

I'm curious as to why you think he should 3 bet the flop. You're right, the board is draw heavy, but every one that remains in the pot has already called 2 cold. If he 3 bets and the CO calls, the other are not only going to call the 1 extra bet for sure, but will be correct in doing so. I just call here, and bet out the turn unless a really scary card comes up.

[Deorum]

Since you did not three bet the flop because you wanted to
see how the board looked on the turn before you started
betting heavily (I assume this is why you did not three bet
the flop) you have a clear bet on the turn when a blank
hits (which it did). Having this board checked through on
the turn would be a disaster. If you get raised again,
prepare to check call the river, unless some heavy action
occurs. If you fill up on the river, bet again, as the
button may check something like AJ behind you, but will
most probably call. Having said this, a three bet on the
flop would not have been a terrible play, as you are not
quite dead if a scare card hits the turn. You still have
four outs, and the pot is large enough to call a bet on the
turn if someone makes a straight or a flush. Someone
may try to checkraise you on the turn if they do hit
because you did three bet; your three bet might have given
you a free card if someone did make their hand on the turn.
But since the situation went down as you described it, you
cannot afford to have the turn checked through.

[risen]

Well the 3 bet is primarily for value because he is ahead but that is counterweighted by making it more correct for these folks to call the turn also. The additional reason is to hope the button caps it behind him on the flop. Overall, it gives you a better idea where you stand since you're out of position relative to the other aggressive bettor this hand whether he raises or not and should make you more confident on the turn action.

[DeeJ]

Bet! You are likely ahead and there's no information to the contrary. Bet for value but watch out for monsters.

[SinCityGuy]

A turn bet is mandatory here.

[7Dave]

I figured a bet would be right, so that's what I did. The button raised, only MP1 called, river a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] MP1 bets out, I fold (99% sure he made the flush), the button calls. MP1 had the flush alright, button had AJ for the nut straight on the flop/turn. Guess I did my best.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

/d

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
Well the 3 bet is primarily for value because he is ahead but that is counterweighted by making it more correct for these folks to call the turn also. The additional reason is to hope the button caps it behind him on the flop. Overall, it gives you a better idea where you stand since you're out of position relative to the other aggressive bettor this hand whether he raises or not and should make you more confident on the turn action.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't refrain from betting because it makes it "more
correct" for a drawing hand to call on a later street. If
your three bet would make it correct for a drawing hand to
continue drawing on a later round of betting, then it may
be correct to smooth call the flop to force opponents to
make a mistake later on. But in this situation, anybody
with a reasonable draw is going to have proper odds to call
a turn bet anyway. The idea of not betting to keep the
pot size small only works if you can make it
incorrect for them to call. The margin by which
they are correct in calling does not make a difference.
Your bet has a positive expectation if you are the favorite
to win, and your opponent's call has a negative one. The
value of the drawing hand's call comes from the money
already in the pot. Also, probing for information on the
flop really is not going to be all that helpful, as you are
almost certainly going to be going to the river with this
hand.