$1/$2 PS NLHE value bet

[theBruiser500]

9 handed game, $1/$2 PS NLHE I have everyone covered. Two limpers to me on the button with As 7s, I call, SB completes.

Flop comes Ks Jc 5s

The blinds check, first limper bets $4 the second limper calls. They started the hand with stacks of $86 and $76 respectively. This looked like a good place to semi bluff against their small stacks and what appears to be weak hands and my strong drawing hand so I raised to $25. The blinds fold, the guy who bet $4 folds, the guy who called $4 calls me.

Turn comes 4c.

He has about $50 left, does anyone think I shoudl continue my semi bluff at this point? I checked.

River comes Ah.

He checks to me. What's the play?

[snowbank]

Hey Bruiser,

I would have to say bet the river here. I wouldn't do any huge bet or anything, but I would assume you have the best hand here. The reason being with your bet of $25 if he had a set or even two pair he would probably be raising you. He just called so at that point I put him on a K high kicker, but you never know with some of these guys. I would say he wouldn't check the river if he hit, very seldom am I seeing players check-raise the river, especially when he checked the turn. I would say your pair of Aces is good and I would say maybe he has a KQ. Let me know what the results were. Thanks.

[Prevaricator]

Bet that river! Its unlikely he checked 2 pair or better on the river after you checked the turn behind him. I also think the check on the turn is fine, because its not impossible that a smooth caller like that has a set.

[theBruiser500]

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The reason being with your bet of $25 if he had a set or even two pair he would probably be raising you.

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I agree, I think he would have shown some agression at some more agression at some point int he hand with two pair or a set, off the flop... Something that worried me at the end was if he had some piece of the flop somehow and the ace gave him twopair (of all the cards to come, I think an ace is most likely to pair us both). In retrospect, I guess this was possible but I should have assumed the ace didn't hit him.

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I would say he wouldn't check the river if he hit, very seldom am I seeing players check-raise the river

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This is my experience as well. I'm trying to excercise more discretion when I value bet though on the river. What are the chances my hand is the best? How much money is it worth if it is the best and how much will it cost me if I'm wrong? (I think these are the questions I'm supposed to be asking here, though to be hoenst I don't know since before I just value bet everything all the time). For some reason I didn't think my hand was worth much of a value bet even if I had the best hand, but the draws missed and if he had a king here he'd pay me off for $30 I bet.

[DoggSnott]

I think that you should bet the turn about $4 again, maybe a little more.

Then on the river bet about $10.

I think that by checking you won't win this hand without your ace on the end....but you bet the turn, he maybe doesn't call you

when you get heads-up on the turn, you definately need to bet

[NotAClue]

Given his passive flop play, there's decent chance he's also on a draw. The turn is unlikely to have helped him, so I bet here. Bet $30. A nice half-pot on the turn intimidates him enough so that if he doesn't have a real hand, he's going to fold. It's big enough that it is not going to induce a bluff re-raise because he knows you'll have to call the remaining $20. And even if he did flop a set or some such, you'll have odds to hit your flush on the river.

Since you checked the turn, check the river. There's a good chance he was also on a spade draw or a straight draw. If he was on the flush draw, then he missed and there's no point in value betting. If he was on the straight draw, he might have hit, and maybe waiting to check-raise.

Your check-behind on the turn signals that you were on a draw, so I don't think you have much chance of getting him to fold a better hand here (since in his mind you might have missed your flush draw and are bluffing at this point).

[theBruiser500]

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And even if he did flop a set or some such, you'll have odds to hit your flush on the river.


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This is a little skewed if I understand you correctly. You're saying if I semibluff $30 and he does have a big hand and raises me my last $20 I have the odds to call that $20? Well, overall the play of putting $50 in on the turn to win this $50 pot is not a good play compared to putting $0 in. On this suspicious board where it is likely I'm semibluffing, and with his small stack I'm not inclined to semibluff again.

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Your check-behind on the turn signals that you were on a draw, so I don't think you have much chance of getting him to fold a better hand here (since in his mind you might have missed your flush draw and are bluffing at this point).

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Isn't this a good reason to value bet?

I agree, I wouldn't be betting the river as a bluff at all.

[NotAClue]

The reason the turn play would be justified is because the chance of him having a big hand are much smaller than all the other possibilities on this board (middle pair, top pair-weak kicker, flush draw, straight draw). Given the 4 on the turn, most of the hands he could have had in an unraised pot were not helped. That's why continuing the semi-bluff on the turn would be a strong play. You're not putting in $50 to win $50, you're putting in $25 or $30 to win that $50.

If all you wanted was a free card on the turn then a much smaller raise would have done the trick. If you wanted to buy the pot, then a smaller raise on the flop followed by another bet on the turn would do the trick. Raise to $10 on the flop, followed by a $15 dollar bet on the turn. You invest the same amount of money with identical or better results.

With regards to the river, it's true that you could have been raising with a straight draw, and it hit. But given that there was also a flush draw out there (which did not hit), if he has something like KJ or AJ, he's calling any reasonble value bet on the river (unless your read on him is that he's pretty weak-tight).

[Daann]

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If you wanted to buy the pot, then a smaller raise on the flop followed by another bet on the turn would do the trick. Raise to $10 on the flop, followed by a $15 dollar bet on the turn.

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I don't think this will work as well on most opponents as a flop pot raise. The opponent will have to call $6 for a $28 pot on the flop and then the $15 bet on the turn will look like weakness to a lot of players and so they will call again. If you want to put them to a real decision then a pot raise will do the job much more often than what is effectively a minimum raise.

[theBruiser500]

"Given the 4 on the turn, most of the hands he could have had in an unraised pot were not helped. That's why continuing the semi-bluff on the turn would be a strong play. You're not putting in $50 to win $50, you're putting in $25 or $30 to win that $50.

If all you wanted was a free card on the turn then a much smaller raise would have done the trick. If you wanted to buy the pot, then a smaller raise on the flop followed by another bet on the turn would do the trick. "

This is all very helpful and instructive, all though I agree with Daaan that $10 on the flop and $15 on the turn would not go very far in buying the pot. I need to work on my bet sizes more, they're normally illogical and too often pot sized without a good reason. Here as you say, if I was going to take that free turn card than a small flop raise would have worked just as well.

Note though, that if he has AJ, one of the reasonable hands he could have that would pay me off for a value bet, he's hit two pair on the river, one of my fears.

thanks for the responses all!